The Six Pack: Picks for Georgia vs. Florida, Ohio State vs. USC and the Week 9 lockout

Teams rarely perform at the same level for an entire season. Even if they continue to win or lose, performance may improve or decrease a little. This is yet another thing that can make handicap matches each week a little more difficult.

The sample size we have to work with is always small and constantly changing. As the season progresses, we can also see how the market reacted to what happened, and perhaps which teams it overreacted towards.

A fun way to do this is to see how teams performed in the first month of the season compared to the last. Here’s a look at the 10 teams that saw their average coverage margin (how much they beat, or lost to, the spread) suffer the biggest drop between late September and this week.

It shouldn’t be a shock to see Mississippi State here. The Bulldogs had a great start to the season thanks to Kamario Taylor, and the market reacted. But so did their opponents, and when you hurt Taylor, things went downhill quickly. Florida is another team that got off to a hot start then quickly cooled off, and who could forget the UMass Minutemen opening the season with an upset of Rutgers?

What might be most interesting, though, is seeing Georgia on the list. They continued to win for the most part, but their overall performance didn’t live up to expectations. Whether this is anything to worry about or just a mid-season lull remains to be seen, but it’s certainly worth noting.

Anything else to note? Two of the 10 teams on this list are playing this weekend, and that’s the game we start The Six Pack with.

Games of the week

No. 3 Georgia vs. No. 17 Florida: So which of these two October underperformers do we have more confidence in right now? Truth be told, I trust Georgia more, so of course I’m siding with Florida in this case. When my stomach zigzags, my brain zigzags! Seriously, it’s hard to trust Florida given its defense, and while Georgia isn’t perfect, its flaws are nowhere near as great as Florida’s.

So why the Gators? It’s simple.

Their offensive coordinator has a solid history against this Georgia defense, and I’m betting on his ability to continue that success in Florida, where he has a more talented offense than at Georgia Tech.

Buster Faulkner faced Georgia three times as Tech’s OC, and while the point totals in those games varied wildly, there was one thing about each performance that was very consistent.

His offenses stayed on the field. In these three games, they made three points twice. It’s a great way to protect your defense, and it’s Florida’s best chance to do that in this one.

I don’t know what the secret is, but Faulkner knows how to move the ball effectively against the Georgia defense, and it’s not your typical elite Georgia defense. Don’t get me wrong, it’s still very good and one of the best in the country, but it’s been proven that if you can score it will earn you points. The 5.0 points he allows per possession in the red zone ranks him 130th nationally. The Pick: Florida +12.5 (-112) at DraftKings

No. 22 Arizona at No. 13 Texas Tech: I didn’t show you the teams on the other end of this monthly performance, but if I had, you would have seen that no team improved relative to the number more than Arizona. The Wildcats have improved by 25.67 points per game against the spread, and they enter this game flying under the radar. There was a lot of talk about the Big 12 getting multiple playoff bids, but all of that was focused on BYU, Utah, Texas Tech and until last week, Houston. No one ever mentions Arizona, but the Cats are 6-1 and have this game against Tech as well as a game against Utah. They control their destiny in the Big 12.

Unfortunately for Arizona, losing Texas Tech last time out was probably the worst thing that could have happened. You’d rather play a team that’s coming off a win and might overlook you, but that went away with their loss to Cincinnati. Now they know they can’t afford another mistake, and Arizona will have their full attention.

But I am not trying here to fight against the spread. The total seems much more accessible. I like Arizona, but I can’t ignore how different their offense has been in their six wins compared to their one loss.

He came to BYU on the road. Arizona scored 17 points in the game, or 1.7 points per possession. They have an average of 3.13 in their wins. BYU was by far the best defense they’ve seen this season, and while Tech isn’t the same defensively as last season (the pass rush was down), it’s still a good defense. The one who should succeed here, especially at home.

I also believe Arizona’s defense can hold up against a one-dimensional Texas Tech offense. Regardless of who wins or loses, I don’t see either offense having a good day. The Pick: Under 54.5 (-108) at DraftKings

Lock of the week

Mississippi State at No. 11 Texas: Eventually, Mississippi State’s team total will drop low enough that I no longer consider it an automatic play, but that hasn’t happened yet.

There is nothing very complicated in this room. Kamario Taylor was Mississippi State’s offense. When things were going well for this team early in the season, it was Taylor who put the team on his back and made it happen.

That bad offensive line? No worries, Kamario will be fine. Without him, nothing worked. Through the first four games of the season, the Bulldogs’ offense averaged 3.66 points per possession. Since the Alabama game, when Taylor suffered a toe injury that cost him his season, the number has dropped to 1.12.

They scored 15 points against Oklahoma last week, but that was only because of a late touchdown that came after the game ended. Moreover, this match took place at home. This one is on the road against another excellent defense, and one that probably feels like it has something to prove after needing overtime to escape a near miss against this same Bulldogs team last season. The Pick: Mississippi State Team Total u14.5 (-125) at DraftKings

ACC Fallen Powers Battle of the Week

Clemson at Florida State: Not long ago, a game between Clemson and Florida State was one of the most important of a given season.

In 2026, the evening will debut on the ACC network. The crazy thing for me is that as bad as Florida State has been the last two years, and despite all the negativity surrounding the program, I have a lot more confidence in the Seminoles than I do the Tigers!

Clemson’s offense is one of the worst in the country. They have only scored 12 touchdowns on offense this season, including two (2) passing touchdowns. This is the smallest number in the country.

Seriously, the Army, Air Force, and Navy have more.

Say what you want about Florida State, but at least they can put points on the board. The Noles also just pulled out here, and Mike Norvell fully understands the position he’s in. We’ve already seen Norvell unload the clip in big spots like this, and I can’t help but believe he thinks the chance to put a number on Clemson would go a long way toward getting him another season in Tallahassee.

Or, at least, put him on the radar of a team looking for a new offensive coordinator. For example, let’s say maybe there’s a team that just fired its offensive coordinator earlier this week and whose head coach previously worked with Norvell in Memphis. I don’t know, I just throw stuff out there! The pick: Florida State -6 (-108) at DraftKings

This was supposed to be the big match of the week

No. 2 Ohio State at USC: The ripple effect of Julian Sayin’s injury could end up being felt across the country. Ohio State has gone from a clear favorite to win the national title to a team that we can’t even be sure will make the playoffs at this point.

Then there’s Jeremiah Smith’s Heisman affair. He’s currently the favorite for the award, but will he be able to maintain that lead if Ohio State’s new QBs struggle to get him the ball?

I don’t know. Hell, we don’t even know for sure who Ohio State’s starter will be. We have to assume Luke Fahey is the favorite, since he replaced Sayin, but Ryan Day said Fahey and Tavien St. Clair could see time. Either way, it’s not hard to see how Ohio State is likely to approach this game. They’ll want to make life as easy as possible on a starting QB first, and that means they’ll try to run the ball. USC’s defense will likely help in that regard, as the Trojans haven’t been very good at stopping the run.

The biggest problem for the Trojans, however, might be the offense. No one ever expects Lincoln Riley teams to play great defense, but this offense couldn’t do anything against Wisconsin.

He also struggled mightily in a win over Washington, as well as a loss to Oregon. Facing a good defense, he struggles to score points. Ohio State doesn’t have a great pass rush, but it’s still a very good defense. The pick: Less than 52.5 (-115) in Fanduel

The upheaval of the week

No. 25 Wisconsin at Iowa: To continue a theme, Iowa is a team that probably wasn’t as good as it looked early in the season. Yes, the Hawkeyes started the year 4-0 with a win over Michigan, but it was a somewhat chancy victory in Ann Arbor. Plus, it’s not like Michigan has been impressive this season. The Wolverines are 4-3 and are a second away from being 3-4. The other wins came against a Northern Illinois team that is still winless, Northern Iowa, and an Iowa State team that gets blown out pretty regularly in the Big 12.

Now the Hawkeyes are still 5-2 after losing two of three, but they’re playing musical chairs at QB, and their leading runner Kamari Moulton is out for the season after getting injured last week. Oh, and the defense hasn’t really been the same Iowa defense you’re used to seeing.

They’re still annoying, but they don’t have the same turnover magic. Now here comes Wisconsin, who just smothered USC with a pillow last week. The Badgers don’t have too impressive a resume outside of this win, but this defense is outstanding. Basically, Wisconsin looks like the team we’ve come to expect from Iowa, while Iowa looks a little less like the typical Iowa. In my mind, that makes Badgers a living dog here. The pick: Wisconsin (+142) at DraftKings