Earlier this week, it was thought that heavy rain could begin in San Antonio by Wednesday evening. But since then, forecast models have shown the arrival of the cold front will be delayed by about 12 hours, meaning the highest rain chances are now expected to arrive Thursday morning.
The flood watch issued for south-central Texas will still go into effect Wednesday at 7 p.m. However, generally dry weather is expected across the region until midnight, especially along the Interstate 35 corridor. An isolated shower or thunderstorm remains possible, but the chance of rain on Wednesday will only be about 20%.
A strong line of thunderstorms is expected to begin moving through Hill Country before dawn Thursday, likely between 2 and 6 a.m. This line will continue southeast, likely approaching the San Antonio area as the sun rises.
The greatest risk of heavy rain in San Antonio will occur between 6 a.m. and noon Thursday, as the line of slow-moving storms crosses Interstate 35. Scattered showers and thunderstorms could continue through the afternoon, but activity will become less widespread.
An interruption of precipitation is likely Thursday evening, particularly between 5 p.m. and 10 p.m. However, some weather models show the potential for storm redevelopment late Thursday night and early Friday, which could trigger a flood risk during the Friday morning commute.
For most of the region, the precipitation expected over the next 48 hours will be beneficial. However, flooding could become a major concern in isolated pockets of the region that receive between 13 and 20 cm of precipitation.
Thursday morning’s storms could also bring damaging wind gusts of up to 60 mph, as well as frequent small hail and lightning. This activity could cause power outages in and around San Antonio.
Scattered rain will remain possible across the region over the weekend, with around a 50% chance of rain on Saturday, followed by a 20-30% chance on Sunday. The threat of flooding will decrease significantly, however, as most precipitation will be light.
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