The tropical threat brewing in the Gulf could impact the United States in the form of a hurricane this weekend. See maps, possible path.

With less than two months left in the Hurricane season 2026the possibility of a ninth named tropical storm in the Atlantic basin is brewing in the southern Gulf.

Since the Atlantic season began on June 1, this year only eight named storms have been recorded, while El Niño continues to bring a more active season to the Pacific. The season ends on November 30.

What we know about the possible path

Tropical Depression Nine formed Tuesday in the Gulf. As the storm brews over warmer waters off Mexico, it is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm Wednesday morning and a hurricane Thursday, according to the National Hurricane Center.

If it became a tropical storm, it would be given the name Isaias, pronounced “ees-ah-EE-ahs.”

Forecast models are beginning to agree that the northward movement of this tropical system will bring it to the Gulf Coast this weekend.

Regardless of what it’s called or if it strengthens into a tropical storm, we know it will bring moderate to heavy rain to the Gulf Coast and the rest of the Southeast this weekend and early next week.

Some longer-range forecast models also predict this moisture will eventually reach the Ohio Valley and Northeast by the middle of next week.

What we don’t know

The timing, intensity of storms, and severity of land impacts from this tropical system remain unknown.

While some models have impacts starting Friday evening, others show them starting later in the weekend.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis signed an executive order Tuesday declaring a state of emergency in 25 Florida counties ahead of the storm’s arrival. DeSantis said in a statement that the order “ensures communities have the time and resources needed to prepare for potential severe weather impacts to Florida’s Panhandle and Big Bend region.”

Beware of the storm named “I”

While the formation and frequency of tropical storms and hurricanes vary throughout the season, “I” named systems tend to be the most retired names in the Atlantic basin.

The most well-known retired storms named “I” are Ian (2022), Ida (2021), Irma (2017), and Irene (2011).

When Ike retired in 2008, Isaias replaced the name “I” on the list of Atlantic tropical cyclones, which changes every six years.