Oil prices plunged 15% this week as hopes for a peace deal between the United States and Iran fueled bearish sentiment, despite continued attacks in the Strait of Hormuz.
Friday November 6, 2026
Oil prices are expected to post one of the steepest weekly losses in recent memory, with Brent ICE sliding 15% week-over-week to $99 a barrel on expectations of diplomatic progress between the United States and Iran and a shrinking window of opportunity for the Trump administration to continue hostilities in the Middle East. While it may be a little premature to talk about a global supply glut – after all, Iranian drone and missile attacks continue unabated in Hormuz – the general sentiment has definitely shifted to the downside.
Forced by Gulf Shipping, Aramco reduces Asian PSOs. Saudi Arabian national oil company Saudi Aramco (TADAWUL:2222) reduced its December PSOs for all Asian grades by a uniform $2 per barrel, setting its flagship Arab Light grade at a $7 discount to Dubai/Oman, the lowest price level since June 2020.
Washington extends its net of sanctions against Iran to India and Turkey. The US Treasury has imposed sanctions on Indian and Turkish individuals and companies accused of providing false flags and certifications to ships carrying Iranian oil, increasing pressure on Iran despite broader geopolitical easing.
The United Arab Emirates is considering a third route around Hormuz. The UAE’s national oil company ADNOC is reportedly looking to build a third west-to-east pipeline, carrying third-party crude from other Middle East producers to Fujairah, expanding the UAE’s regional influence as it seeks to launch its second pipeline in the first quarter of 2027.
India is making storage the missing link in its renewable energy boom. The Indian government has pledged $1.5 billion in grants to help build 92 GW of energy storage capacity, with financial assistance through 2031 as Delhi seeks to better integrate its 230 GW of existing solar and wind capacity.
Colombia reopens the door to oil exploration. Colombia’s new president, Abelardo De La Espriella, is seeking to hold the country’s next round of hydrocarbon licensing in 2027, reversing the moratorium on new exploration introduced by former President Gustavo Petro with the aim of greater energy self-sufficiency.
Russian fuel subsidies are spiraling out of control. Russian authorities paid 415 billion rubles ($5.1 billion) in subsidies to its refiners last month in October, the highest payout since April 2022, as Moscow compensated downstream producers for selling their products domestically rather than exporting them.
Qatar turns to American LNG to escape its exposure to Hormuz. QatarEnergy is seeking an additional 3-6 mtpa of US LNG after securing 4 million and 3 million tonnes from Cheniere (NYSE: LNG) and Woodside (ASX: WDS) respectively, significantly expanding its trading portfolio to protect against possible disruptions in the Gulf.
The copper crisis in China is entirely due to the lack of the metal. Spot copper premiums in Shanghai hit a five-year high of ¥2,100 per tonne ($315/t), as increasing cuts from domestic smelters, limited supply from Russia and Africa, and trade flows to the United States all depleted available copper cathodes.
Italy is preparing to break gas’s hold on electricity prices. Italy’s Meloni government is set to approve changes to the country’s energy bill, allowing Rome to reimburse power utilities when European gas prices rise above €58.90/MWh (now €86/MWh), in a bid to limit the pass-through of fuel costs to wholesale electricity.
Europe postpones methane declaration until 2028. EU members agreed to delay the implementation of EU methane rules until 2028, allaying fears that rules requiring oil, gas and coal importers to report their methane emissions could disrupt existing trade flows, with the possibility of two more annual deferrals.
Brazil keeps crude at home as trade tensions rise. Brazil’s Commerce Ministry extended its 12% oil export tax through the end of 2026 to protect the nation’s diesel supply and fund consumer subsidies amid the U.S.-Iran conflict, while simultaneously launching a process to impose retaliatory measures against U.S. tariffs.
Mining crackdown in Indonesia drives nickel up. Nickel hit a five-week high, with the benchmark three-month LME contract climbing to $16,400 a tonne after the Indonesian government targeted companies linked to former Glencore trader Arif Kurniawan for alleged forestry and licensing violations.
Australia’s main gas project is stagnating due to rising costs. The $700 million Golden Beach Energy project, one of Victoria’s largest natural gas projects, has entered administration citing delays and soaring costs, making gas shortages much more likely in eastern Australia from 2028.
Upstream mergers and acquisitions in the United States increase in the third quarter. U.S. upstream M&A activity reached $12.6 billion in the third quarter, according to intelligence firm Enverus, bringing total 2026 deals to $80.5 billion, with private-to-public deals accounting for about two-thirds of the disclosed value amid broader shale consolidation.
Low inventories restrict Chinese diesel exports in November. China’s diesel exports in November could fall below 800,000 tonnes (around 200,000 b/d), the lowest since July, as domestic middle distillate stocks remain below seasonal norms after refiners shipped a record 500,000 b/d out of the country in September.
The Sirius gas project in Colombia is delayed. Colombia’s largest-ever gas discovery, the 6 TCf Sirius offshore project, would be postponed until 2031 as partners Ecopetrol and Petrobras conduct mandatory prior consultations with local ethnic communities despite Colombia’s dependence on 40% of imports.
By Tom Kool for Oilprice.com
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