- White House envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner worked for weeks to convince Russian President Vladimir Putin to resume negotiations. President Trump and his team hope that Putin will be more willing to compromise after the United States lifts sanctions on Russian diesel sales and takes other steps welcomed by Moscow.
- “The relationship we have built with Putin will be instrumental in these negotiations,” a US official said.
- After the meetings in Abu Dhabi, Witkoff and Kushner could travel to Moscow and kyiv to speak directly with Putin and Zelensky, a US official said.
Yes, but: The parties remain very far apart, particularly on possible territorial concessions from Ukraine. Intensifying Russian attacks on Ukrainian cities and Putin’s refusal to agree to a ceasefire cast doubt on the prospects for significant progress.
Behind the scenes: Over the past two weeks, Witkoff and Kushner have had daily phone calls — sometimes several times a day — with Russian and Ukrainian officials to prepare for the upcoming negotiations, U.S. officials said.
What they say: U.S. officials briefing reporters Monday struck a positive tone despite skepticism in Europe and Ukraine about Putin’s desire to end the war.
- “There is an opportunity to make significant progress toward an agreement and attempt to close the gaps,” a U.S. official said. “Bringing the parties back to the table has not been easy and we are seeing promising signs as mediators.”
- The official added that Witkoff and Kushner want to use the negotiations to “crystallize” the decisions that Putin and Zelensky will have to make.
Driving the news: The discussions in Abu Dhabi will focus on two axes:
- A military task force led by the commander of U.S. European Command, Gen. Alexus Grynkewich, will discuss ceasefire monitoring and postwar security arrangements. The working group made significant progress on this front during the last round of negotiations in February.
- A political working group that focuses on the most sensitive subject: territorial claims. No progress was made on this issue in February.
State of play: Both sides have not budged publicly. Russia demands control of the entire Donbas region, while Ukraine insists that the territory be divided based on current front lines.
- Privately, however, U.S. officials say both sides “have shown some flexibility” on the territorial issue in recent weeks.
- They claim that an agreement on the territory will not be possible until security guarantees are achieved.
The big picture: Witkoff and Kushner invited senior officials from NATO, the EU and four major European powers – the UK, France, Germany and Italy – to Abu Dhabi to hold separate talks on the sidelines of the Russian-Ukrainian negotiations.
- Ukraine’s European allies will play a key role in any post-war security deal.
- The United States also wants to begin a third track of negotiations between European countries and Russia to create new ways to ease tensions and avoid conflict.
- But many European countries are very wary of this idea. They believe this confirms the Russian narrative that Europe poses a threat to Moscow’s security and fears it could weaken NATO.
- U.S. officials emphasize that the proposed Europe-Russia security initiative would not replace or diminish NATO or the central role it plays in protecting Europe.
- But a new security deal between Europe and Russia would help end the war in Ukraine, they say.
- A U.S. official said Witkoff and Kushner hope the Russians will agree to include European representatives in the next round of peace talks after Abu Dhabi.
What to watch: Ukrainian officials say they have three priorities for the negotiations:
- Conclusion of an agreement to ease tensions on the Black Sea and authorize grain exports.
- Reach an agreement to end attacks on Ukrainian power plants and Russian oil refineries before winter.
- Organize a trilateral summit between Trump, Putin and Zelensky, possibly at the G20 summit in Miami next month.
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