Tropical Storm Isaias is expected to strengthen into a hurricane and hit the US Gulf Coast

Tropical Storm Isaias formed in warm waters off eastern Mexico on Wednesday and forecasters predict it will quickly strengthen into the first. hurricane of the Atlantic season before hitting the US Gulf Coast later in the week.

Communities in Isaias’ potential path reacted quickly to prepare for the predicted landfall as early as Friday evening. Some Gulf oil wells suspended production and an Alabama beach town canceled a weekend festival known for attracting thousands of tourists. The governors of Florida and Alabama said a state of emergency for dozens of counties.

By moving inland, Isaias could also disrupt Saturday’s college football showdown between rivals Georgia and Alabama — a game that President Donald Trump plans to attend.

Isaias could become a major Category 3 hurricane, with winds of 110 mph or more, before it hits land, said Michael Brennan, director of the U.S. National Hurricane Center.

“We expect multiple dangerous, potentially life-threatening impacts to portions of the northern Gulf Coast beginning Friday and continuing through the weekend,” Brennan said during a video briefing Wednesday.

The storm was set to tie or break a 121-year-old record as the last initial hurricane to arrive of the Atlantic season. According to the National Weather Service, the record dates back to 1905, when the first Atlantic hurricane of the year formed on October 8.

Atlantic hurricane season has been unusually quiet this year because of a strong El Niño, which disrupts the formation of storms over this ocean. Storm activity was above average in the Pacific, where Tropical Storm Simon also formed Wednesday off the coast of Mexico.

Storm surge threat extends from Louisiana to Florida

The Miami-based hurricane center issued a hurricane watch Wednesday for the northern Gulf Coast, from Bay St. Louis, Mississippi, to Indian Pass on the Florida Panhandle. The watch means hurricane conditions are possible within 48 hours.

Brennan said dangerous storm surges could affect an even wider area, from southeastern Louisiana to Big Bend in Florida. Heavy rains of 3 to 7 inches (7 to 18 centimeters) could trigger flash flooding near the coast, with accumulations of 1 to 3 inches (3 to 8 centimeters) as far inland as Tennessee and the western Carolinas.

Isaias was centered about 225 miles (365 kilometers) west-northwest of Progreso, Mexico, and about 500 miles (805 kilometers) south-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River, according to the hurricane center. It had maximum sustained winds of 65 mph (100 km/h) and was moving east-northeast at 8 mph (13 km/h).

Forecasters predict that Isaias (pronounced ees-ah-EE’-ahs, according to the hurricane center) will become a hurricane by Thursday as it tracks north toward the U.S. Gulf Coast. Although its track and timing may change, the storm is expected to make landfall Friday evening or early Saturday.

Isaias is expected to strike along a wide swath of coastline that is no stranger to major hurricanes. Hurricane Camille, one of the worst storms of the 20th century, killed more than 250 people after making landfall near Waveland, Mississippi, in 1969. In 2005, Hurricane Katrina leveled parts of Mississippi, flooded New Orleans and killed nearly 1,400 people. And Hurricane Michael leveled homes and buildings near Panama City, Florida in 2018.

Gulf oil production and tourism already hit

Ahead of the storm, oil and gas producers shut down a significant portion of offshore production in the Gulf, which accounts for nearly 15% of the crude pumped into the United States each year.

As of Wednesday, producers had temporarily suspended about 25% of oil produced in the region, removing about 511,000 barrels per day from the market, according to the Marine Minerals Administration. Eight of the Gulf’s 371 manned oil platforms have been evacuated.

With oil prices already high, the production cuts are significant enough to affect oil markets, although other Gulf hurricanes have caused greater disruption, said Jim Burkhard, global head of crude oil market research at S&P Global Energy. What’s more concerning, he said, is whether Isaias would hit as a powerful storm near the refineries.

“I would rate oil market risk as moderate, but increasing,” Burkhard said in an email.

In Gulf Shores, Alabama, the threat of a storm caused organizers to cancel the National Shrimp Festival that was scheduled for Thursday through the weekend. The event attracted around 325,000 people last year.

Gulf Shores resident Maranie Adams spent Wednesday gathering water and other supplies while her family moved some belongings, including a spa motor, to higher ground.

Adams said she, her husband and two adult sons planned to ride out the storm at their home, about a half-mile from shore. The family’s flock of chickens, including five roosters, will shelter inside with them.

“We have to get crates to bring them into the house so they don’t fly away,” Adams said. “It’s going to be loud.”

Alabama Governor Kay Ivey declared a state of emergency in 40 counties, saying in an article on X: “While I hope for minimal impacts, we must take preparations seriously.”

In Florida, Gov. Ron DeSantis declared one for 25 counties in the Panhandle and Big Bend regions. The declaration activates the state’s emergency management plan for hurricanes, allowing officials to deploy responders and equipment in the event of a disaster. The state also plans to deploy an urban search and rescue task force based in Miami.

In Pensacola, in the Florida Panhandle, electric utilities were prepositioning crews to quickly repair any power outages. Municipal authorities provided sand to residents to fill sandbags to protect their homes from flooding. And Pensacola Mayor DC Reeves urged people to check on elderly neighbors and others who might need help.

“There’s obviously no need to panic at this point,” Reeves said at a news conference Wednesday. “It’s really about preparation.”

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Rico reported from Atlanta and Collins from Hartford, Connecticut. Associated Press journalists Russ Bynum in Savannah, Georgia, and Julie Walker in New York contributed to this report.