Tropical unrest moves closer to Gulf as Atlantic hurricane season enters October
The Atlantic hurricane season is showing signs of life as October gets underway, with tropical unrest brewing closer to home in America’s Gulf. All eyes are on a new area to watch near the Bay of Campeche.
TAKEAWAYS
- All eyes are on a new area to watch that has been designated in the Gulf of America this weekend.
- The system currently has a medium chance of developing over the next seven days.
- Even if the system does not fully develop, the associated deep tropical moisture could increase the risk of heavy rain for several days.
The Atlantic hurricane season is showing signs of life as October gets underway, with tropical unrest brewing closer to home in America’s Gulf.
WHAT IS A TROPICAL STORM?
According to the FOX Forecast Center, a new area to watch was designated Saturday evening near the Bay of Campeche, where a large area of low pressure could develop.
(FOX Weather)
The system has a medium chance of developing over the next seven days, but it is too early to say where or when a tropical system might form as a defined area of low pressure has yet to develop.
Any potential system is also expected to move slowly as it drifts across the southwest Gulf, the FOX Forecast Center said.
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Currently, a cold front is forecast to extend into central Florida and extend across the Gulf before gradually dying out.
A man walks through the flooded streets of St. Augustine, Florida, after Hurricane Matthew hit the area on October 7, 2016.
(Joe Raedle/Getty Images)
The remnants of this front, combined with a disturbance aloft, could contribute to the triggering of a low pressure system in the southwest of the Gulf. This will start to form around Wednesday and Thursday.
As the week progresses, the system may begin to expand. However, there will be no major organization and it is not guaranteed that the system will move north.
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The system could also struggle to expand or stay closer to the Mexican coast.
A resident walks past debris on Pine Island Road after Hurricane Ian in the Matlacha Islands, Florida, United States, Saturday, October 1, 2022.
(Eva Marie Uzcategui/Bloomberg/Getty Images)
The FOX Forecast Center notes that even as the system intensifies into a named tropical system, tropical storm conditions are expected across the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to Big Bend, Florida.
Alternatively, even if the system does not fully develop, the deep tropical moisture associated with it could increase the risk of heavy rain for several days, reaching areas well north of the Gulf Coast.
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That said, it’s still far too early to determine specific impacts or even if the system will develop, but whatever happens over the next few days will be crucial in determining the weekend forecast.
(FOX Weather)
Currently, a strong subtropical jet stream is positioned across the Gulf and into the Atlantic. As the air begins to rise, a surface low could potentially develop or consolidate.
The exact position of the jet stream will be crucial. If it stays too far south, increased wind shear could destroy any tropical systems trying to form.
Meanwhile, Gulf water temperatures are currently at their warmest levels on record since 1982.
SEPTEMBER ENDS WITHOUT A HURRICANE IN THE ATLANTIC FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 32 YEARS AMID THE IMMINENT SUPER EL NIÑO
A quiet month of September
The Atlantic has passed 338 days since the last hurricane formed, with September ending without a hurricane for the first time in 32 years.
(FOX Weather)
This is only the eighth time since the 1950s that the Atlantic has passed through September without a hurricane and only the second time since the satellite era began in 1966.
Although it is the climatological peak of the season, El NiñoHigh winds have suppressed activity this year.
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If the entire 2026 Atlantic hurricane season ended without a hurricane, it would be only the third time since 1914 and 1917.
A destroyed neighborhood following Hurricane Ian in Fort Myers, Florida.
(RICARDO ARDUENGO/AFP / Getty Images)
However, hurricanes may have formed during these seasons but remained undetected because they remained far from land and ships at sea.
If this happens in 2026, it will mark the first hurricane-free Atlantic season in the modern satellite era.
Stay with FOX Weather for the latest news.
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