Hurricane Trudy threatens flooding in the southwest of the United States
Trudy is off the coast of Mexico, but its moisture will flow into the southwestern United States and help fuel a multi-day flood risk in seven states this week, from California to Colorado.
A decline in the jet stream will also channel moisture from the Pacific as a powerful low pressure system moves through the region.
Timing of this week’s precipitation
Wednesday: The highest flood risk Wednesday covers much of Arizona and parts of New Mexico, as well as southern parts of Colorado and Utah.
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There will be an abundance of moisture available to support heavy downpours and training storms. This means that storms will produce heavy rain over the same areas for extended periods of time. The Weather Prediction Center is forecasting precipitation rates of up to 2 inches per hour.
One of the biggest concerns will be the possibility of mudslides over recent burn scar areas as well as slow moving canyons and arroyos.
If you plan to visit any of the Western national parks this week, be sure to check the forecast daily and pay attention to any warnings or advisories issued.
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There is also a slight threat of severe weather Wednesday across parts of Arizona and western New Mexico. Isolated strong winds and hail are the main threats, but a brief tornado is also possible.
THURSDAY: Moisture will continue to flow southwest Thursday, only increasing the threat of flooding on already saturated ground.
Some forecast models are hinting at humidity levels near the records available for October in this region, meaning there is great concern about flooding and the possibility that precipitation amounts will be higher than currently forecast.
Although the greatest flood risk shifts out of California, it remains across much of Arizona, Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado and Utah. This includes places like Las Vegas, Phoenix, Tucson and Albuquerque.
How much rain and snow is expected?
Right now, we’re expecting up to 3 inches of rain over parts of the desert southwest, which is more than enough for flash flooding in this region. Some isolated areas could see up to 5 inches.
And yes, we might even get some snow out of this system for some of the higher elevations.
Parts of the Sierra and Rockies could see the first significant snowfall of the season. This could be an ideal base for some ski resorts that were deprived of snow last winter.
Although widespread snowfall will remain below 6 inches, we could see isolated peaks pick up a foot of snow.
Be sure to check back often as forecasts may change. And don’t be caught off guard if you pass through higher elevations, as rain could quickly turn to snow.
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