Donald Trump has made no secret of his desire to win a Nobel Peace Prize, but his Canadian counterpart Mark Carney now appears to be an unlikely favorite in this race.
The Canadian prime minister has edged out Trump in at least one prediction market for the 2026 prize, giving the US president a “near zero” chance of winning the coveted prize after his war in Iran.
According to betting and prediction site Covers.com, which tracks prices on Kalshi, Carney was trading with an implied chance of 14 percent on Monday, ahead of humanitarian agencies such as Sudan Emergency Response Rooms at 13 percent and Doctors Without Borders at 10 percent.
“Donald Trump was the favorite to win last year, but given what happened this year in Iran, we can’t see that happening again,” Covers.com wrote in its latest update.
“He may have decent odds on sports betting, but Kalshi gives a more realistic representation of his chances of winning the prize in 2026. That chance is close to zero.”
The move comes amid an increasingly bitter trade war between America and its northern neighbor.
The Trump administration imposed 50% tariffs on some Canadian products and announced additional restrictions on Canadian products and companies seeking contracts with the U.S. government.
Trump also hurled insults at Carney, calling him “governor” instead of prime minister, and pushing to rename Lake Ontario to “Lake America.”
Carney responded with a less incendiary approach, presenting Canada as a sovereign middle power ready to resist American economic pressure, while leaving the door open for negotiations.
Last week, he was also photographed scrolling through his phone as Trump gave a speech hailing American dominance at the United Nations General Assembly.
“Stop making memes, stop throwing shade, stop trying to be tough,” Carney told the administration through reporters as the trade war intensified earlier this month.
Trump’s fixation on the Nobel Peace Prize is not new, with the president spending much of the last year thinking about how he deserved the prize thanks to the many wars he claims to have “solved.”
But the committee announced in October that last year’s prize would go to María Corina Machado, Venezuela’s democracy advocate and opposition leader, leaving her allies to assuage her disappointment with a host of other consolation prizes.
For example, in October, days after he declined the Nobel Prize, the Richard Nixon Foundation awarded Trump its Architect of Peace Award for his continued efforts.
FIFA President Gianni Infantino went even further by presenting Trump with an award created especially for him: the first “FIFA Peace Prize.”
The positive side for the president is that prediction markets are hardly a crystal ball.
Betting sites recognize that the Nobel market is highly volatile, with prices determined by news cycles, political developments and traders’ expectations, not by inside information from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
The uncertainty is also underscored by another market: Polymarket, for example, owns Sudan’s emergency response rooms in front of Carney.
Gn world
