President Donald Trump changed his tune midterms Wednesday, emphasizing that even if Republicans lost control of the House, Senate or both, he would remain America’s commander in chief.
“I’m here whether we win or not,” he told reporters in Arizona and Montana.
The change in tone came just two days after he urged his supporters in Alaska to “pretend” it was him on the ballot, a campaign message he has repeated often in recent weeks as forecasts have shifted in favor of Democrats taking control of both chambers.
Republican candidates have been put on the defensive as Democrats have risen in the polls and Trump has seen his approval rating steadily decline. GOP leaders have redirected money to House districts and Senate races once considered safe in an effort to limit losses.
The White House insists that Trump remains at the heart of the Republican campaign, with spokesman Davis Ingle describing him as the party’s “unequivocal leader” and saying his policy positions on the economy and the border presented voters with a clear choice between a “common-sense agenda” and “extreme liberal policies and Democratic obstruction” in November.
Ingle said News week in a previous emailed statement, Trump had built “one of the strongest coalitions in political history” through the MAGA movement.
“Republicans remain focused on winning, protecting and expanding President Trump’s majorities, that’s the only goal we have this cycle,” said Natalie Baldassarre, national press secretary for the RNC. News week Thursday afternoon. “We’re thinking outside the box to fight typical midterm precedent, including investing resources in field races to tout this administration’s historic accomplishments and give Republicans a boost to defy history in November.”
News week also contacted the White House by email for further comment Thursday morning.
Why it matters
Trump spent much of the campaign at rallies, asking his supporters to act as if his name was on the ballot.
The latest comments signal a shift in messaging, reminding voters that whatever happens in the midterms, he stays in the Oval Office.
“I won my election. I’m here whether we win or not,” the president told reporters.
The numbers behind Republican electoral angst
- VoteHub’s Oct. 15 model gave Democrats an 84% chance of controlling the House and a 59% chance of winning the Senate.
- Polymarket pegged a Democratic victory at 63 percent, while Kalshi estimated the same outcome at 61 percent.
- The Cook Political Report listed 21 House races and seven Senate contests as toss-ups in its October rankings.
- Republican spending groups are redirecting advertising dollars toward seats still considered salvageable, as once-safe territories become competitive.
Forecasts point to democratic control
VoteHub’s October 15 forecast called for 231 Democratic and 204 Republican seats in the House.
His Senate model showed Democrats getting 52 seats to Republicans’ 48.
Prediction markets told a similar story.
Polymarket gave Democrats about a 6 in 10 chance of winning both chambers, compared to 29% for a Republican Senate and a Democratic House, 9% for a Republican runoff and 1% for a Democratic Senate combined with a Republican House.
Kalshi’s prices put the Democratic win at 61 percent, split control with Democrats taking the House at 29 percent, the Republican win at 11 percent, and the reverse split at 0.8 percent.
These figures are not electoral projections or scientific surveys.
Forecasts combine information about individual races, while market prices reflect what traders collectively think is likely. Both can change abruptly before Election Day.
Cook’s Oct. 9 legislative rankings placed 213 seats in the solid, likely or skinny Democratic columns and 201 on the Republican side, leaving 21 seats tossed up. His October 6 assessment of the Senate identified seven toss-ups, six of which involved Republican-held seats.
Republican change to limit losses
The Republicans’ strategic response becomes visible in advertising.
Five senior Republican lawmakers told POLITICO that the House was effectively gone, with one saying the goal was to “save as many Republican seats as possible.” Another predicts a Democratic gain of about 10 seats.
Republican groups withdrew from contests involving Mariannette Miller-Meeks in Iowa and Tom Kean Jr. in New Jersey, while abandoning the Omaha-area district represented by retired Don Bacon.
Campaign money is now concentrated where party officials think they can still win.
And this pressure extends to the Senate.
Spending has flowed into Kansas, South Carolina and Texas, longtime strongholds that Republicans would normally expect to easily defend.
The Senate Leadership Fund has suspended ad bookings in North Carolina while investing at least $10 million in Kansas and more than $100 million in Texas, CNN reported.
A cash benefit with limits
Republican organizations entered last month with about $1 billion, compared with about $579 million among comparable Democratic groups, according to The Associated Press.
MAGA Inc. alone had nearly $416 million on hand at the end of August.
Late spending results in higher costs.
Trump-aligned organizations sometimes paid more than five times the rates offered to groups that booked airtime in the spring, according to campaign officials cited by AP.
Republican pollster Neil Newhouse argued that the most effective window had already passed.
“A million dollars of advertising in October is a drop in the bucket,” he said.
Money can keep a race close, but it can’t guarantee that voters will separate congressional candidates from the president who leads their party.
Trump’s change in tone suggests he understands this distinction even as Republicans struggle to persuade voters to make it.
News week‘Reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here.
Contact News week editors on this story: John Fitzpatrick, Dan Gooding and Geoffrey Rowland.
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