WASHINGTON (AP) — As he takes stock of his Republican Party’s midterm defeat, President Donald Trump is now faced with the difficult question of what to do about her unpopular 8 months war against Iran.
For weeks, Trump has threatened to return to full-scale bombing of Iran. once the American elections are in the rearview mirror if Tehran does not reach a settlement on terms acceptable to it.
In his first comments Wednesday after the Democrats’ resounding election victory — a wave fueled in part by the American electorate’s discontent with the war — Trump largely agreed with Vice President J.D. Vance, who publicly ruminated that the war was a catastrophe for the Republicans.
“A lot of that is true because it made the price of gas go up a little bit,” Trump said. However, he redoubled his decision to launch the conflict despite his great political cost. “At the same time, if I had to do it again, I would do it,” he said.
The strikes and counterattacks have caused tens of billions of dollars in damage across the region. And the conflict has hit the wallets of families around the world with rising gas prices and rising costs in almost every sector.
Today, as Trump considers his next move, the stakes could not be higher for Iran, the Middle East and the global economy as a whole.
Trump may be less restrained, but the conflict is now more complicated
While the oil is flowing again Strait of Hormuz with the help of US Navy escorts for international tankers, the conflict spread to the Red Sea with Iran-backed Houthi rebels and a Saudi Arabia The Soviet-led coalition is fighting.
The situation in the Red Sea remains particularly volatile. Houthis attack Yemeni civilians and Saudi infrastructureand seek to strengthen ties with militant groups across the Horn of Africa.
Attacks by Yemen-based Houthis on areas controlled by the internationally recognized Yemeni government have also worsened. a growing humanitarian crisis.
The threat the region faces from Iran and its proxy groups, a senior Yemeni government official noted, “did not change overnight” with the US elections, urging Washington to avoid hasty decisions. The official was not authorized to comment publicly and spoke on condition of anonymity.
“There is reason to suspect that Trump might feel less restrained given that the political damage is done,” said Brian Haggerty, a former senior analyst at the Central Intelligence Agency who focused on Middle East security issues. “At the same time, the strategic calculus or the strategic logic of what you hope to achieve through an escalation of strikes against Iran is no different today than it was a week or a month ago. »
Trump has at least some options, analysts say
Haggerty, who now works with Defense Priorities, a Washington think tank, said Trump could choose to maintain something close to the current posture, with the U.S. military carrying out what she calls “defensive strikes” while continuing its naval blockade to restrict the flow of Iranian oil to the global market.
Another option is to strike Iran Pickaxe mountain, a facility linked to its nuclear program and buried deep underground in central Iran, said David Schenker, who served as assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern affairs during Trump’s first term. Trump has repeatedly suggested he plans to target the site.
Schenker said Trump could then walk away and claim he’s done enough damage to Iran’s nuclear program — and perhaps try to strike a “fig leaf deal” that restores freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, offers Iran some degree of sanctions relief and postpones further nuclear negotiations in the future.
Another option would be to follow through on threats made by Trump earlier in the war to launch massive attacks on Iranian infrastructure. “Iranians may believe the president is hurt and coerced by Congress, but the opposite may also be true,” Schenker said.
But such an escalation would likely exacerbate the problem of oil and energy prices that many voters cited Tuesday as a reason for their support for Democrats, Schenker said.
The price of a barrel of Brent crude oil fell below $95 on Wednesday after the election, hitting its lowest level in two months, a sign that markets are not expecting major strikes.
Regional officials are on alert for what Trump does next
Middle East officials listened to Trump’s every word in the weeks leading up to the U.S. election, looking for clues about how the Republican leader was considering his next steps.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pressed for further strikes against Iran during a call this weekend with Trump, who would not commit to military action, according to a person briefed on the situation.
Three Middle Eastern government officials said Wednesday that Trump and his administration appeared to be signaling to Iran that its influence would only wane once the U.S. election is over.
Administration officials had suggested privately through diplomatic channels that Trump might be more willing to resume strikes after Nov. 3 because he would have little to lose politically, according to the officials, who were not authorized to comment publicly and spoke on condition of anonymity.
After Tuesday’s election bombing, fears persisted that Trump could be more emboldened to carry out large-scale strikes or further limited strikes against Iran, the officials said.
A fourth official said the election results gave mediators some measure of optimism about finding a path to resolve the conflict.
Meanwhile, Vance seemed to blame the election debacle on the Iran war more forcefully than his boss Trump, who initially blamed GOP candidates for the great loss.
“The reason we lost,” Vance said of the midterm elections in a lengthy social media post, “is the war.”
Vance, a potential 2028 presidential candidate, was among the most skeptical in the White House about the wisdom of starting war, but he stuck with Trump’s decision once he made it.
Voter data shows Iran had an impact but was not the main issue
Several Democratic candidates who scored upsets Tuesday expressed voters’ dissatisfaction with the war in Iran in their victory speeches.
“Everywhere I went I heard the same thing,” said Senator-elect Josh Turek of Iowa. “They would say: Josh, I’m having a hard time keeping food on the table, keeping a roof over my head, paying my electric bill. And with this war in Iran, I’m having a hard time keeping gas in my tank.”
About 6 in 10 voters said the United States made the “wrong decision” in launching military action against Iran, according to The AP Voter Poll, a survey of more than 100,000 voters in the United States.
Most voters unhappy with the war in Iran supported the Democratic candidate in their local race for the U.S. House of Representatives, but the survey suggests that the war in Iran was not the top issue for most voters.
Only about a third of voters said the war in Iran was “crucial” in determining their vote for Congress. That’s well below about half of the people who said that about the cost of living or government corruption.
Nearly all voters who supported the Democratic candidate in their local race for the U.S. House of Representatives said going to war with Iran was the “wrong decision,” while about 8 in 10 voters who supported the Republican candidate said it was the “right decision.”
Meanwhile, about 6 in 10 voters nationally said they were “very concerned” about the cost of gasoline and diesel, according to the poll — and about two-thirds of that group voted for the Democratic candidate in their local race for the U.S. House of Representatives.
But Trump, for his part, said, even in hindsight, that he would approach Iran exactly as he did.
“I can tell you that when it comes to this war, I would not have done anything differently,” the president said.
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Magdy reported from New York. AP writers Collin Binkley in Washington, Hannah Fingerhut in Des Moines, Iowa, and Kathleen Foody in Chicago contributed to this report.
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