- “If Ken Paxton loses“It will be because of WEAK and INEFFECTIVE political hackers like John Cornyn and Karl Rove,” Trump posted on Truth Social.
- Trump won Texas by 14 points barely two years ago.
What to watch: Trump’s message comes the same day FEC campaign finance reports confirmed Elon Musk’s efforts to help Paxton cross the finish line.
- Musk donated $158 million to the main Senate GOP super PAC in September for two deals, as Axios reported Thursday morning.
- The day after each Musk donationSLF made an equal-sized transfer to a Texas PAC, a short-lived super PAC dedicated to electing Paxton.
The big picture: A new poll this week in Texas gives Democrat James Talarico a slight lead over Paxton, 50% to 47%.
- Republican leaders warned Trump For months, if Paxton won the primary against Cornyn, it would cost the party much more to keep his seat.
- These predictions turn out to be true, with more than $500 million in ad spending already invested in the Texas Senate race, according to AdImpact.
- “I have to be more careful when you’re running with the big dogs,” Cornyn told Semafor earlier in October after audio was leaked from a Paxton event in Washington DC.
The other side: Talarico gets bludgeoned with some of that money, but he’s far from defenseless. He was already on the air in August, when Paxton and the Republicans were still figuring out their game plan — and who would foot the bill.
- Talarico raised $64 million in the third quarter, an army of small donors. His campaign said 97% of contributions were less than $100. Talarico’s fundraising prowess allowed him to raise significant dollars, earning him lower advertising rates.
- “Oh my God, holy shit, I saw Talarico,” Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio) said Thursday. “I don’t even know how you raised $64 million in one quarter. I mean, that’s a mind-boggling number.”
- Paxton grossed $18 million.
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