Driving the news: Since his meeting with Putin on Friday, Trump has embarked on a remarkable five-day campaign of diplomatic concessions and cover-up for Russia — sparking a bipartisan backlash just as voters prepare to cast their ballots.
- On Sunday, Trump caught Zelensky off guard by declaring an immediate “energy ceasefire.” Russia has continued to attack Ukrainian energy infrastructure, without apparent consequences from Washington.
- Monday, Trump has dismissed months of intelligence-based reports that Russia was favoring Iran’s war effort by providing information on U.S. military assets.
- Tuesday, Trump doubled down on the diesel deal and brushed aside concerns that the profits could fund Russia’s war machine, even as Republican senators called it a “betrayal” and “a gift to our adversary.”
Between the lines: The benefits for Russia are obvious. Much less clear is what Trump’s concessions do for American security, European allies, or his own political fortunes.
- For America: Energy sector analysts doubt that the diesel deal will significantly reduce fuel prices caused by the war in Iran.
- For Europe: Washington is breaking ranks with a NATO alliance facing a historic threat environment, as Russia intensifies its hybrid campaign of sabotage, cyberattacks and drone incursions.
- For Republicans: With control of Congress at stake, Trump is embracing a dictator viewed unfavorably by 81% of his own 2024 voters, according to a January YouGov poll.
The big picture: Trump’s cozy relationship with Putin has haunted his political career since 2016, when Russia interfered in the presidential election to help him defeat Hillary Clinton.
- From the Mueller investigation to the Helsinki summit, Trump’s deference to Putin has long divided Republicans and put him at odds with his own national security establishment.
- A decade of investigations, scandals and outrage in Washington has done little to shake this affinity. If anything, this increased scrutiny appears to have strengthened Trump’s resolve to defy consensus on foreign policy.
What they say: On Monday, Trump again suggested that Russia was more interested in ending the war than the country it invaded, telling reporters: “I think actually Putin wants to make a deal more than Zelensky.”
- “The president’s diesel deal will help lower prices for farmers, truckers and families across the country while simultaneously urging both sides in the Russia-Ukraine conflict to stop strikes against refineries, which are driving up costs and harming American consumers,” White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said in a statement.
The bottom line: Losing control of Congress could cripple Trump’s legislative agenda and expose his administration to years of investigations and subpoenas.
- But as opinion polls mount, the president appears increasingly willing to follow his raw political instincts, regardless of the consequences for Republicans fighting to keep him in power.
- In an article published Tuesday by Truth Social, Trump made clear that he considers himself personally immune to the results of the midterm elections, writing: “I’m not running for office, I already won, IN A MASSIVE LANDSLIDE.”
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