Trump promised to stop inflation. Republicans could pay the price in the midterm elections

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump would prefer voters not worry about inflation. But it’s hard for them to ignore it.

Fueling up a base Ford F-150 truck now costs about $100, which is $30 more than a year ago. Mortgage rates have risen to levels that have depressed home sales. And over the past 12 months, consumer prices have risen faster than wages, making the average family poorer.

A week before the midterm elections that will serve as a referendum on his second term, Trump is struggling to keep his campaign promise to cut costs, even as he insists the country has entered an economic “golden age.” The same frustration that motivated his return two years ago could now cost Republicans control of Congress.

“Our nation is in better shape than ever,” Trump insisted during his campaign, promising that interest rates and oil prices would fall once the war with Iran – which he started – ended.

The word “affordability,” he said, is nothing more than “a Democratic scam,” adding that “it doesn’t mean anything to anyone.”

Trump’s optimistic rhetoric meets voters’ reality

The rhetoric comes as voters say they are struggling to afford basics like fuel and groceries and blame Trump for higher costs, pointing to the Republican president’s aggressive tariff policies and the ongoing unpopular war with Iran.

Record diesel prices, in particular, have driven up transportation and agriculture costs, creating problems for Republicans in typically conservative states like Iowa, Kansas, Ohio and Texas, where Democrats appear particularly competitive in races that will shape the final two years of Trump’s term.

“The cost of things is absolutely the first thing people talk about, but it’s also the fact that their pay doesn’t keep up with the cost,” said AFL-CIO President Liz Shuler. “It’s a double whammy.”

Pump prices have become a predominant issue for voters.

LEARN MORE: Rising gas prices frustrate voters. Trump says it’s a ‘cheap price to pay’ for Iran war

“People hate paying more for gasoline, and prices have gone up a lot,” said Stephen Moore, who once advised the president on the economy. “It’s frustrating because Trump has done so many good things for the economy. But with the situation in Iran, it’s really had a big impact on the economy, and Republicans could pay a big price for that.”

Misty Reeder, 48, said she considers herself “in the middle” politically, but chose all Democrats in her ballot in Easley, South Carolina.

“I noticed things have gotten a lot harder,” said Reeder, who receives disability payments. “We hear about it everywhere we go.”

In the six years that she and her husband have rented their home, Reeder said their rent has increased by several hundred dollars.

“Something has to give,” she said. “It’s like a dam: the pressure is too strong and it will break.”

Sandra Capell, 69, said she wants to “see change” when it comes to the economy, even though she voted Republican in Easley, which is part of South Carolina’s conservative upstate region.

“I think everyone is hurting when it comes to groceries, gas, everything, really,” she said. “I’m watching the Republican Party get on the wagon, get in the saddle and bring it back.”

Beti Rosales, 47, said rising prices have taken a toll on her family’s Mexican restaurant in Allentown, Pa., a part of the Lehigh Valley that has been swinging between holidays in recent years. Limes and avocados cost more than before. The same goes for the plumber that we sometimes need.

Two years ago, Rosales decided to give Trump and the Republicans a chance, hoping for relief from inflation.

“The current reality is that the situation has not improved,” she said. “In fact, the situation has gotten worse. The prices of everything have gone up.”

Rosales now plans to vote Democratic in the midterms.

“Maybe some new faces could make a difference?” she said.

Trump promised to lower prices

While running in 2024, Trump criticized President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris, his Democratic opponent in the election, for their high inflation, which reached 9.1% in June 2022. He promised voters he would lower gasoline prices and unlock skyrocketing growth.

“With your vote in this election, I will end inflation,” he promised.

In less than two years, Trump has aggressively reshaped the American economy. He has imposed double-digit tariffs on many trading partners – including the European Union, India, Japan, Canada and Mexico – and sparked trade wars with his allies. The US government now owns stakes in several dozen private companies. He enacted broad income tax cuts.

But the persistent challenge of inflation persists, overshadowing the positives of continued economic growth and low unemployment. Inflation was 3% when Trump took office and reached 3.7% last month.

WATCH: Economist analyzes new inflation report and what’s driving prices up

The president downplayed the intensity of inflation, saying it is below 2% and “under control.”

Democrats have taken advantage of the discontent, using the same high cost of living that sunk them before to put pressure on vulnerable Republicans and put into play congressional districts that Trump won even by double digits.

“Now remember, they promised to lower prices on day one. Instead, under failed President Donald J. Trump, it costs more than ever in American history to fill up your truck, fill your refrigerator, see the doctor or power your home,” Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff, a Democrat running for re-election, said at a recent rally in Atlanta.

“You work harder and harder, but the treadmill gets faster and faster and steeper and steeper and the bills get higher and higher,” he told the crowd.

Cait Conley, a Democrat running in New York against Republican Mike Lawler, one of her party’s most vulnerable incumbents, returned to her tweet from the last midterm elections, when Biden was president. Lawler had advised voters to “stock up and go shopping – that will inform their decision”.

In a new ad, Conley said voters should follow that advice this year “and then tell me if the system works for you.”

“You deserve better. It shouldn’t be this hard,” she said.

Democrats respond to Trump’s attacks on him

Conley and other candidates have pressed a theme that Democrats say will be particularly effective this cycle: accusing Trump and other Republicans of worsening voters’ economic pain by corruptly pursuing policies that help their billionaire donors at the expense of ordinary Americans.

“I know you’re frustrated. Washington politicians are getting richer while you’re hurting. Corporations are making huge profits while your costs are rising,” North Carolina Senate candidate Roy Cooper said in an ad airing in the competitive state.

This includes particular attention to the war with Iran.

“Trump’s war abroad is costing taxpayers a billion dollars a day for a war we don’t have to fight. Our schools are collapsing, our factories are closing, our gas prices are skyrocketing. But when they want war, billion-dollar blank checks,” Michigan Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed said in another location.

LEARN MORE: Inflation worsened last month to 3.7% ahead of midterm elections

The president “thinks the economy is doing well because he and his family have become billions of dollars richer,” said Amy Richards, 56, a former Republican who has voted Democratic since Trump became her party’s nominee in 2016.

“He has no idea what it means to take a paycheck and have to feed your family and yourself,” Richards said Friday, standing outside a polling station in his hometown of Round Rock, Texas, “and he doesn’t care.”

Republicans, meanwhile, have tried to portray Democrats as extremists, pointing to an ascendant populist wing that includes a number of democratic socialists.

Moore, who advised Trump’s campaigns, said he wishes Republicans would spend more time talking about the economy’s strengths, including rising median incomes and a record stock market, although he acknowledges those numbers might not resonate with voters.

“What matters is how people feel, and it’s clear they feel financially stressed,” he said.

Some Trump supporters remain satisfied. Renee Blood, 57, an executive assistant in Round Rock, said the economy has improved “pretty well.”

“Sure, we’re seeing gas prices go up and down, but things are a lot more affordable,” she said.

She is considering voting Republican because she fears the situation will get worse if Democrats return to power.

Trump’s golden age may not have arrived, she said, but “we’re still working on it.”

Colvin reported from New York. Meg Kinnard, Associated Press writer in Easley, South Carolina; Mike Catalini in Allentown, Pa.; and Jesse Bedayn in Round Rock, Texas, contributed to this report.