It’s become abundantly clear that Republicans in tough races aren’t particularly eager to campaign alongside President Donald Trump ahead of the midterm elections.
Few showed up at Trump’s midterm convention last month. Since then, his travel schedule has oddly enough included lower-tier states like Alabama, Oklahoma and New York and only a handful of real field races. And even in Texas, Gov. Greg Abbott won’t be attending Trump’s next rally (citing scheduling conflicts, of course).
Trump seems increasingly sensitive to this dynamic — which makes sense, given that he clings to the theory that he alone can push his party to victory in less than four weeks, despite his low approval ratings.
He cried about his Tuesday rallies, bringing it up at least five times.
“By the way, I’ve been going to rallies. The Republican Party is starting to surge,” he said at a non-campaign event in Baltimore. “Someone said today, ‘I wonder why?’ Well, I started – I had to get out. I had to do it.
(There’s no evidence that Trump rallies are actually helpful, we’ll get to that.)
He posted on social media that “his crowd and enthusiasm at the rally is incredible!” » He added: “We’re reversing races everywhere. … Everything’s happening!”
In another post, he simply stated: “MY RALLIES ARE SAVING THE REPUBLIC PARTY AGAIN!!! »
In a huddle with reporters, he returned to the subject even when not asked about it, saying at one point that “the rallies changed things.” Asked about leaked audio of Texas Senate candidate Ken Paxton claiming DC was in control of his campaign, Trump responded that Paxton was “doing a lot better” since Trump started holding rallies a few days ago.
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And when a reporter asked him Monday about campaigning in Michigan, Trump said he would. Asked about his campaign in Maine, he suggested he would go there as well.
“I don’t know about Maine,” Trump said. “I think we’re going to Maine, too.”
But Republican Sen. Susan Collins has said repeatedly — including during a debate Tuesday night — that she didn’t expect Trump to come to Maine. “It’s just not going to happen,” Collins said in June.
It’s also a tricky issue in Iowa, where three House Republicans recently broke somewhat with Trump over the Iran war. And Senate candidate Rep. Ashley Hinson appears to want to distance herself from Trump.
When those lawmakers were at a White House event last week, Trump appeared to embarrass them, discussing plans with him for more campaign events.
“I’m going to come to Iowa,” Trump said, adding, “I’ll say we’re going to have a big rally, and we’ll all be there together. We need to get you all elected.”
Hinson replied, “We’ll save you a good Iowa pork chop, sir.” »
And in early September, when it became clear that many Republicans in marquee races were skipping the president’s Trump-centered midterm convention, the president claimed it was for reasons other than his historically low poll numbers.
“Everyone wants to come,” Trump said, adding, “The reason some people aren’t coming is because we don’t have room for 500 politicians.”
He also said at the time that he would travel across the country campaigning for every Republican in the most competitive races.
“I’m going to go to each of these 35 places, and we’re going to see if we can get everyone elected,” he said on September 2. He repeated the same statement at the convention a week later: “I’m going to go to all of them, about 35. In a few cases, I’ll go twice.”
This doesn’t seem to be happening anymore – at least not yet. With less than four weeks to go, Trump has visited only a handful of actual battlegrounds.
And despite Trump’s claims that he is such an asset, it appears his “Trump-a-palooza” midterm convention has backfired on Republicans. Polls show that the generic ballot measure, a key measure of the midterms, has swung in favor of Democrats at almost this very moment.
Of course, Trump simply cannot buy into this perception that Republicans don’t want to campaign with him and that he is an electoral liability.
His ability to rally the base at loud, large-scale events has been a central part of his political brand, but he faces a reality in which many Republicans appear to view them as negative.
The lack of Republicans willing to campaign with him also calls into question his dominance over his party, which he has cultivated for a decade and which is essential to his hold on his remaining political capital. If he truly lost the base and his ability to get Republicans to do what he wants, he wouldn’t have much left.
In the four weeks remaining before the election, it could become very clear how many Republicans think Trump is an albatross and a lame duck.
So he overcompensates for that – and badly.
Gn headline
