Vehicles drive on Highway 405 (overpass) past an American flag displayed outside the Marathon Petroleum Corp. refinery. from Los Angeles to Carson, California on September 22, 2026.
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US President Donald Trump has suggested the White House is still considering banning diesel exports as he faces growing political pressure to tackle soaring fuel prices ahead of November’s midterm elections.
“We’re thinking about it very seriously,” Trump told a Fox News reporter on Sunday while attending the Presidents Cup golf tournament in Illinois.
“This can often lead to a slight increase in the price of gasoline for cars, so we are looking at this very seriously. We can do it,” he added.
Trump has already indicated his support for an export ban as retail diesel prices hit new records, saying earlier this month that a decision would be made quickly “one way or another” on whether to implement a ban.
US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the White House was considering restrictions rather than an outright ban, while Politico reported last week that the Trump administration was preparing a plan to ban diesel exports for 90 days.
The idea of a total ban on the world’s largest diesel exporter by the world’s largest diesel exporter has drawn strong resistance from the US energy sector, while analysts have warned the move could backfire and exacerbate the global fuel crisis.
Diesel prices have soared amid hostilities between the United States and Iran, as well as Russia and Ukraine, with these conflicts disrupting vital oil and fuel trade routes. Average U.S. diesel prices were hovering around $6.50 a gallon on Friday, according to AAA, up sharply from a year ago but just below their Sept. 22 record of $6.53.
Commodity strategists at Morgan Stanley said a curb on exports from the United States, which has become an important source of marginal diesel supply amid reduced flows from Russia and the Middle East, would likely lower U.S. diesel prices initially – “but with potentially negative downstream reactions”.
“Not only would diesel prices rise globally, but there could be a feedback loop on U.S. gasoline prices as refineries adjust,” Morgan Stanley strategists said in a research note released Thursday.
“The biggest problem in the global oil system”
Benedict George, head of European product pricing at Argus Media, said some form of US restriction on diesel exports would likely drive European diesel prices and premiums over crude “to an unprecedented new level”, noting that the US supplied around half of Europe’s diesel imports over the past two months.
“It’s really important to be clear that there is no measurement yet and it’s very difficult to know if there will be measurement and what that measurement will be, even if there is a vision,” George told CNBC by phone.
When talking to oil traders in Europe, it’s clear that they are mostly doubtful that the United States will restrict diesel exports, given how difficult a decision would be for American oil companies, George said.
Cars form long queues to refuel at a Rosneft gas station in St. Petersburg, Russia, September 15, 2026.
Anadolu | Anadolu | Getty Images
In the United States, soaring diesel prices have put additional financial pressure on farmers and farmworkers, as well as drivers and households, in the run-up to the November midterm elections.
The American Petroleum Institute (API), an oil lobbying group, was among those that quickly challenged the prospect of a U.S. ban on diesel exports when Trump initially appeared to support the idea last week.
In a statement, API CEO Mike Sommers said that “restricting U.S. energy exports will only make the problem worse, exacerbating refining challenges and ultimately harming consumers.”
He added: “The answer is more supply and more flexibility, not further restrictions which risk making a difficult situation worse. »
Trump has already urged Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to stop targeting Russian oil refineries, saying the attacks “hurt the world” as fuel supply disruptions continue to support U.S. diesel prices.
Ukraine, which fears an extremely difficult winter period as it awaits a new Russian attack on its energy infrastructure, has already described Russian oil refineries as legitimate military targets.
Argus’s George said Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries have added a whole new level to the global supply crisis, making diesel “the biggest problem in the global oil system, whereas before it was one of many very big problems.”
What’s next for the global diesel supply crisis?
Asked for his outlook on how long the global diesel supply crisis might last, George said the uncertainty was so extreme that some traders have simply given up trying to forecast the market.
“A trader was telling me recently that he doesn’t bother trying to make forecasts now because it seems like a waste of effort. You literally have no idea what’s going to happen,” George said.
“We don’t know if the United States is introducing restrictions, but I think everyone has talked about a short-term measure, so two or three months at the most… so there is some sort of time horizon on the US restriction of exports, if that were to happen,” he continued.
“But on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, who knows? I mean, literally no one knows. Nothing has worked so far to resolve that situation and the same for the semi-closure of the Strait of Hormuz.”
—Spencer Kimball and Michael Bloom of CNBC contributed to this report.
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