Trump tariff break angers some US ranchers, boosts Brazilian beef imports | News 2026 US midterm elections

In late August, U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on some beef tariffs, making beef cheaper to import, particularly from Brazil.

The move was billed as a way to lower prices for consumers, but it turned out to be a betrayal for many U.S. ranchers, who were preparing to bring their cattle to market.

It is too early to tell how the decision will ultimately affect food prices, but the impact on ranchers was immediate: Livestock auction prices fell, temporarily reducing ranchers’ profits. The Cattlemen’s Association of the United States, the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association and the Farm Bureau, all member organizations representing ranchers, opposed the decision.

Rural Republican members of Congress have also distanced themselves, but it’s not yet clear how ranchers will vote in the midterms — or whether those votes will decide races.

Chad Basinger, a rancher in Pretty Prairie, Kansas, is skeptical that imports will have a significant impact.

“I know there are people who have said, ‘Well, I’m just going to vote for the other party,’ or ‘I’m not going to vote,’ or ‘This administration has really failed me.’ So yes, there will be people who lean the other way in the midterms. But overall, I don’t think it’s going to be much,” Basinger said.

Ranchers will also evaluate the administration’s other actions, Basinger said, such as the $8 billion in farm aid announced to Kansas on Oct. 19.

Basinger’s district in the Kansas House of Representatives is expected to remain safely Republican in the midterms. But Kansas faces a surprisingly close Senate race, and ranchers in other House districts could find themselves closer to the political fray: Potential districts in Montana, Iowa, Texas and Colorado are all in cattle country.

It is unlikely, however, that ranchers alone will decide elections: ranchers – like farmers in general – represent a shrinking percentage of rural voters and a smaller voting bloc in practice than in the public imagination.

The U.S. cattle herd is near its smallest size since 1951, and the number of ranchers has declined along with the number of cattle. Observers fear that continued uncertainty fueled by tariffs, fuel prices and drought could lead to a further decline in the herding population.

David Anderson, an agricultural economist at Texas A&M University who advises ranchers, said high prices this year should have given ranchers the confidence to invest in the future and expand their herds. However, making imports cheaper could have pushed ranchers in the opposite direction.

“It really goes against the market signal to expand and produce more domestically,” Anderson said. “It made a lot of people angry.”

Pricing changes add volatility

This is not the first time Trump’s tariffs have impacted livestock supplies. Last year, the president added a 50 percent tariff on Brazil, a key trading partner for beef, raising the cost of importing lean Brazilian beef, which is often mixed with fatty American beef to make hamburger patties, a staple in most households.

In February, Trump allowed more duty-free beef imports from Argentina. In August, he did the same for Brazil and Paraguay.

Both tariff changes led to rapid price fluctuations in livestock futures markets, which are often volatile in response to the news cycle.

Livestock prices have also moved this year in response to more fundamental supply and demand factors: plant shutdowns by meatpackers, labor shortages late last month linked to ICE actions at Kansas packing plants, the nation’s second largest, and the reopening of the southern border after a shutdown due to New World alfalfa disease.

Overall, the decline in the U.S. cattle herd has less to do with short-term price changes than with drought cycles, which intensify as warming temperatures increase evaporation.

Yet tariff changes add to the uncertainty. “This has been a hot topic over the last six weeks,” Anderson said. “It just adds a little more uncertainty or volatility, or worry or stress.”

This year, increased price volatility as many breeders prepared to sell led to lower profits and increased risk for breeders.

Basinger says that for many established breeders, the tariff announcement was frustrating, but not existential.

“People are upset. They have a right to be upset. But they won’t change their strategy,” he said. For most ranchers, Basinger said, imports would not be the primary determining factor in decisions about their herds this year.

Where price volatility may matter more, Basinger said, is for the next generation. Most breeders today are considering retirement. Their heirs must decide whether they want to start breeding or sell the family land. Other aspiring breeders are also watching the industry.

“If you see your father not making money, or someone else not making money… it’s not an easy job! » said Basinger. “It has to be very tempting for someone to want to jump in and say, ‘I’m going to be a breeder and go break ice in the middle of winter when it’s cold and I could be inside.’

Record revenues and costs

This year, low U.S. livestock supplies mean ranchers have gotten record prices for cattle, despite increased imports and other changes in the market.

But high revenues don’t always mean huge profits: many breeders operate at a loss for years in a row. Then, they count on a few good years to repay their debts or expand their herds.

Profits this year were lower than expected as breeders also faced high costs.

Interest rates on loans are high and the war with Iran has forced ranchers to pay more for fuel and fertilizer. The drought that has hit many American ranches has forced them to pay more for their food.

In states like Kansas and Nebraska, ranchers also faced destructive wildfires and aid groups like Farm Rescue coordinated hay donations.

Still, Basinger said, ranchers who raise cows and calves have generally done well this year. In Kansas, he sees ranchers using their profits to make repairs and improvements. He said high livestock prices this year have helped. “But it needs to last a little longer to give them more of an advantage,” he said.

A bigger advantage might mean, for example, having enough money for larger purchases, like buying land on a neighboring ranch to make room for a growing herd.

However, pastures are becoming more and more expensive. When put up for sale, outside investors can often pay more than ranchers, which can mean less land for livestock. It’s just added pressure that’s shrinking America’s herd decade after decade.

Breeders were hoping that 2026 would be a turnaround year. However, so far, “we don’t really have evidence of an expansion of the herd,” Anderson said.