TOPEKA, Kan. (AP) — Fifth-generation Kansas farmer Glenn Brunkow describes this time of year as “time to go,” when farmers combine fields, haul crops to town and move livestock from summer pastures to their winter homes.
But this harvest season, they’re doing it with diesel prices more than $2.50 a gallon higher than a year ago, adding to financial pressures rising costs, unpredictable markets and shrinking profits.
“It seems like it’s coming at us from all directions,” said Brunkow, president of the Kansas Farm Bureau.
Economic tension becomes a growing political concern for Republicans in states they have long dominated. President Donald Trump is visiting Kansas on Monday and Iowa later this weekthe latest in a series of steps where he attempts to energize his base in the final weeks before the midterm elections.
The visits take place as Republicans pour money in Senate races in Kansas, Nebraska and Iowa amid concerns on the enthusiasm of voters. The anxiety could be particularly notable in Kansas — a state that Trump won by 16 percentage points over Democrat Kamala Harris in 2024 — like the Republican senator. Roger Marshall faces a stiff challenge from Democrat Adam Hamilton. Democrats haven’t won a Senate election in Kansas in 94 years.
Hamilton, the founder of the nation’s largest United Methodist church, has attracted Republican support for his Senate bid, including that of two former GOP governors. In a video statement before Trump’s visit, Hamilton said it was “an honor” to welcome a sitting president to Kansas.
“I want Kansans to know that if you voted for president, you also belong in my campaign,” he added.
Brunkow, whose organization supported Marshall, said he was asked repeatedly whether economic frustrations might push Republican farmers to vote for Democrats.
“I don’t think it necessarily does that,” Brunkow said. “But I think it dampens the enthusiasm of agricultural producers to go to the polls.”
Republican voters’ frustrations with the party have increased
Don Hineman, a western Kansas rancher and former Republican majority leader in the House of Representatives, said he sees growing frustration among GOP voters beyond just farmers, including some who supported Trump in several elections.
He said farmers understand that Trump’s tariffs have hurt their businesses and are upset the ongoing war with Iran. Immigration has also become a source of concern, particularly after recent immigration raids in western Kansas that resulted in the detention of more than 100 people.
“We need a secure border – we can all agree on that,” Hineman said. “But we also need a viable immigration policy that provides the workforce that the United States has always depended on and will always continue to need. »
Hineman said the traditional Kansas Republican argument — that electing Democrats would strengthen the liberal wing of the party — is losing traction with some voters, including himself.
“I’m tired of being persuaded by accusations that the bogeyman is going to get us,” he said. “I am so fed up with the Republican Party and its desire to woo our current commander in chief that I am ready to consider alternatives.”
Debbie Geneva, 61, of Nortonville, Kansas, said she was impressed with Hamilton after visiting a local market to meet people, something she had never seen Marshall do. She has never voted for a Democrat, she said, but remains undecided about the Senate race.
“I’ve never voted for a Democrat in my entire life, so it scares me a little to be undecided,” Geneva said. “I told a friend of mine, and they can’t believe it, but that’s exactly how I feel right now.”
Geneva said rising health care costs and daily expenses had added to his frustrations.
“And then of course the trade agreements,” she added. “Republicans have done the Midwest a disservice with this.”
Farmers face financial difficulties
Farmers have spent months feeling the squeeze as costs of inputs like diesel, fertilizer and seed have soared due to constraints from refineries and supply disruptions linked to the war in Iran.
Diesel on average $6.30 per gallon Friday nationwide, an increase of more than 70% from a year ago, according to the AAA automobile club. This increase has been particularly painful during the harvest season, when farmers rely heavily on fuel to operate their machines and transport their crops.
“It’s a time of year where we use a lot of fuel and there’s just not much we can do,” Brunkow said. “The margins are tight, and anything that encroaches on that margin really hurts. »
The U.S. Department of Agriculture projects that net farm income will decline 2.6% this year while production expenses will increase 4.5%. Spending on fuel and oil alone is expected to increase by nearly 30%, according to the agency’s September forecast.
The Trump administration has attempted to ease some of these burdens. Earlier this month, Trump signed an executive order lighten the limits on the tax-free use of red-tinted diesel, a move he said would save farmers “millions”. This happened after an investment of 12 billion dollars aid program for farmers announced by the Trump administration in December.
But those efforts have not erased the frustrations of some farmers who expected their financial prospects to improve under Trump.
Brunkow said many farmers “thought it would be better” under Trump, although he thinks most would still view him as the better choice in the 2024 election.
“He made some unforced errors,” Brunkow said. “Miscalculations, bad advice, which had unexpected consequences. »
Concerns extend beyond Kansas
Trump will visit Iowa on Thursday, where Republicans are defending competitive races for governor and Senate. The state, which Trump won in three straight presidential elections, is another agricultural stronghold where economic frustrations have become part of the political debate.
In Nebraska, Senate Republicans invested nearly $15 million in a race between Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts and independent candidate Dan Osborn, an unprecedented amount for a state that Trump won by 20 percentage points in 2024.
David McIntosh, president of the influential Club for Growth, said his group has been closely monitoring agriculture-heavy states since the summer and recognizes concerns about a decline in enthusiasm. His group spends millions of dollars on Republican candidates in Kansas, Nebraska and elsewhere.
“Farmers are stuck between higher input prices and a reduced international market due to retaliatory tariffs,” McIntosh said. “The economic environment is not good.”
Democrats, meanwhile, see opportunity in economic frustrations, even in states where they have struggled to win national elections.
Former Sen. Jon Tester, a Montana Democrat who lost re-election in 2024, said there was “no doubt” that Democrats would perform better than expected in farm states.
“These guys have to pay their bills at the end of the month, and for several months, that’s been difficult to do,” Tester said. “This goes way beyond politics.”
A third-generation farmer, Tester said he started farming in 1978 and witnessed the agricultural crisis of the 1980s, when “a lot of my neighbors left town.”
“We’re preparing for the same kind of situation,” Tester said. “The current economic situation in smallholder agriculture is probably worse than it was in the 1980s.”
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Cappelletti reported from Washington. Associated Press reporter Nick Ingram contributed to this report.
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