Trump’s approval rating plummets: What it means for the US midterm elections | News 2026 US midterm elections

US President Donald Trump’s approval rating has fallen to a record low, a sign that Americans, unhappy with the rising cost of living amid a deeply unpopular US-Israeli war with Iran, could punish his party in the upcoming midterm elections.

Most Americans are unhappy with Trump’s performance, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released Monday, and more people say they plan to vote for Democrats on November 3.

Sitting U.S. presidents have traditionally seen a decline in their popularity around the midterms, and this has often coincided with their party’s loss of congressional seats.

With Trump’s ratings lower than all of his predecessors, experts say Democrats could achieve their goal of flipping both the U.S. House and Senate in the congressional vote.

All 435 House districts and 33 of the 100 Senate seats are up for election.

Republicans currently hold a slim 218-214 seat majority in the House and are also ahead in the Senate, with a 53-47 majority. However, Democrats are campaigning hard for majorities in both chambers, a scenario that could prove a real headache for Trump.

Here’s what the latest polls could mean for this election:

What do the latest polls show?

About 31% of Americans polled by Reuters/Ipsos said they were satisfied with Trump’s performance – the lowest figure ever recorded during Trump’s two terms as president. Two weeks earlier, that figure stood at 32 percent.

When asked which party they would vote for if the midterm elections were held today, 47 percent chose Democrats, while 35 percent opted for Republicans. That represents a 12-point advantage for Democrats, the largest ever in the current cycle, and an increase from the seven-point lead two weeks ago.

The decline in support for Republicans is due to the growing number of women choosing Democrats – about half of those surveyed. More voters — 40 percent — also said Democrats were better at handling the economy, compared to 33 percent who chose Republicans.

The polls, which surveyed 1,679 adults, are a generic poll giving a snapshot of voter sentiment, but not a state-by-state breakdown, meaning the results could still be surprising.

What is the history of presidential elections before the midterm elections?

The president and the party in charge of the White House typically face backlash in the midterms.

Non-presidential party supporters are often more motivated to vote in the midterms than their counterparts, according to the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia.

The think tank also found that in 12 of the last 20 midterm elections since 1946, the sitting president’s approval rating deteriorated between July and November, the months leading up to the election. Only in seven cases did approval ratings improve, while in one case, during the 2006 election under President George W. Bush, the president’s approval ratings remained the same.

What did this trend mean for the midterm results?

While a decline in presidential ratings is the norm, a more favorable opinion of the sitting president is often correlated with the ruling party losing fewer seats in midterms, researchers say.

When the president’s approval ratings are much lower, the ruling party often loses more seats.

In the 20 midterm elections held since 1946, the ruling party has lost seats in the House of Representatives in 18 cases, although a well-liked president has often mitigated that effect, according to data from the American Presidency Project run by the University of California (UC), Santa Barbara.

For example, Americans’ favorable opinion of President George Bush – 75% in the 1990 midterm elections – caused the Republicans to lose only eight seats in both chambers.

But research pooling data from UC Santa Barbara found that when presidents have an approval rating below 50 percent, their party was at risk of bad elections.

In 1994, for example, when President Bill Clinton’s first midterm approval rating stood at 46 percent, Democrats lost 52 congressional seats.

But when Clinton’s approval rose to 66 percent in the following midterm elections in 1998, Democrats lost only five seats.

What does this mean for Trump?

Researchers say that Trump’s falling ratings against the backdrop of the US-Israel war on Iran is very likely to have a negative impact on Republicans.

With Trump’s generally low ratings — the lowest of any president in U.S. history, according to UC Santa Barbara aggregation — researchers say the chances of Republicans retaining their slim majority in Congress are very low.

The question remains, however, to what extent the party might be affected by Trump’s policies.

Republicans may still have some hope. According to the Center for Politics, presidential approval over the past five midterms has generally been slightly higher in exit polls than in pre-election polls because these later surveys include people who actually voted.

This means that midterm results ultimately depend on whether parties can convince their supporters to vote.

How many seats could Democrats win?

According to NBC News, which conducts its own polls and provides state-by-state breakdowns, Senate Democrats are likely to win North Carolina and Maine over Republicans. NBC also considers Alaska, Iowa and Texas as states likely to go one way or the other.

In the House of Representatives, NBC predicts “possible flips” from Republican to Democrat in 15 districts. It classifies four districts currently held by Republicans and three by Democrats as “toss-up.”

If Democrats won all of these close games without losing any of their current seats, they would gain a total of 22 seats in the House of Representatives and five in the Senate.