The logical end point is demand destruction, according to Debnil Chowdhurysenior fuels analyst at S&P Global Energy, the cost to consumers of preserving fuel for agriculture and industry. “Europe will have to drive less; Europe will have to fly less,” he said.
It could also lead to a political setback for the United States, said Landon Derentzvice president for energy and infrastructure at the Atlantic Council.
“Few people are making the connection here – this is yet another thing that has international partners concerned about the reliability of US supplies,” said Derentzwho worked on energy security policy at Obama, Asset And Biden administrations. “It cannot be avoided that this will lead to broader aspects of additional investment in the US energy sector.”
However, there are already signs that Europeans’ trust in the United States is beginning to crumble.
“If they won’t listen to their own people, why would they listen to us? ” said an Eastern European energy official, who was granted anonymity, to describe the internal discussions, referring to the U.S. oil industry’s resistance to the ban.
The official argued that outreach through official channels was unsuccessful due to a broader diplomatic rift.
“With this administration, official channels tend to be a slow waste of time,” the official said. “And yet, that’s exactly what official channels are supposed to work for. If everyone tries to come in through the back door, the back door becomes the front door.”
Another official from a mid-sized European country said the government was caught off guard by reports of a 90-day ban and was now struggling to understand the risks – underscoring the country’s growing awareness of the dangers it faces from its reliance on U.S. imports.
Gn headline
