- It may be too late to change that, but it’s also not clear that anyone has a plan to implement.
What they say: “If I say ‘oh, people are wrong, the economy is great,’ then I look like I’m insensitive. And if I then ask why the economy is great, then it looks like I’m insensitive,” National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said Sunday on CNN’s “State of the Union.”
- “It’s true that the polls, which have repeatedly trumpeted the president’s success, say that people seem a little depressed about the economy. But if you look at their actions, actions speak louder than words,” Hassett added, citing data on spending and defaults.
The big picture: There is ample evidence that the economy is, statistically speaking, relatively strong.
Yes, but: People feel lousy.
- ☹️ The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index is at its lowest level in 12 years.
- 🐘 Republican sentiment in particular is eroding at its fastest rate since the Great Financial Crisis, according to University of Michigan data.
- 🪫 38% of voters said in the latest CBS News poll that their personal finances were quite or very poor — a reflection, perhaps, of the fact that inflation has outpaced wage growth for months now. (When respondents were asked what they thought of when evaluating the economy, 91% said “prices.”)
- 👎 73% disapprove of President Trump’s handling of the economy, according to the latest AP-NORC survey, the lowest rating he — or President Biden — has ever had. (69% say Trump’s handling of cost-of-living issues has been worse than they expected during his second term.)
Point of friction: When voters go to the polls, they don’t take with them the latest release from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
- They bring their feelings, and they are very bad.
- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told “The Axios Show” that the administration is not going to repeat the Biden-era mistake of telling people how they feel.
- But Trump himself said last week that Republicans weren’t doing a good enough job of communicating.
The plot: So far, Trump’s strategy seems to be the rich uncle theory, which doesn’t seem to be working well with voters.
- He continues to promise $5,000 checks for every adult citizen if Republicans win the midterm elections — a $1.3 trillion bombshell that most people don’t believe he will ever pay for.
- On Saturday, he promised seniors $2 billion in Medicare cuts, a significant figure that equates to about two weeks of premium payments.
Between the lines: Part of the tension comes from the nature of the economic boom, an AI-fueled windfall that nonetheless appears to be leaving many ordinary Americans behind.
- It’s not a K-shaped economy, says Krishna Guha, head of economics at Evercore ISI, but an “alligator economy” — like in an alligator’s mouth, where the bottom remains flat and the top points skyward ready to chomp.
The bottom line: There are good reasons to believe that the economy is not that bad.
- There’s an even better reason to think voters don’t care.
Emily Peck contributed reporting.
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