With less than two weeks until the congressional elections, Americans are almost as pessimistic about the economy as they were when the country was emerging from the pandemic, and President Donald Trump’s approval rating is at an all-time low, according to the latest CNBC All-America economic survey.
Eight in 10 Americans rate the economy as fair or poor, the highest figure since December 2023 and one of several worrying signs for Republicans in new polling data released Thursday that shows why their candidates face an uphill battle in the midterms.
Pessimistic views about the economy are most intense among Democrats and independents, but there has been a strong shift toward economic pessimism, even among Republicans, in recent months. Overall, 63% of the public is pessimistic about the current state of the economy and its outlook, an increase of one percentage point from the July survey. But that percentage now includes 35 percent of Republicans, up 6 points from July and the highest level of Republican pessimism in Trump’s two terms.
“We got there, not because independents or Democrats became more embittered, but because Republicans did,” said Micah Roberts, a partner at Public Opinion Strategies, the Republican pollster conducting the investigation. “Since Trump has been president, (Republicans) have maintained a small margin of saying that the current economy is either great or good. And now that has sort of broken and changed.”
The survey of 1,000 registered voters nationwide, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percent, found that Americans preferred Democratic control of Congress by a margin of 52 percent to 45 percent. The 7 percentage point Democratic advantage represents a 3 percentage point gain for Democrats compared to the July survey.
The poll also contained other worrying signs for Republicans. It shows that 72% of Democrats are very interested in the November 3 midterm elections, compared to only 62% of Republicans. Women are 10 percentage points more interested in elections than men, and they prefer Democratic control of Congress by 22 points. Independents prefer Democratic control by a wide margin of 49% to 33%. And a majority of respondents said Democrats would do a better job than Republicans on many of the issues they named as their top concerns, including corruption and the cost of food and gas.
Read the full survey results here.
In the eight states with competitive Senate elections, respondents prefer Democratic control of Congress by 4 percentage points. Trump won these eight states by a total of 10 points in the 2024 presidential election.
The survey shows that “things are moving away from the Republicans or towards the Democrats, depending on how you want to look at it, in a way that would make me very nervous if I was running the Republican campaigns over these last two weeks,” said Jay Campbell, a partner at Hart Associates, the Democratic polling firm for the poll.
Despite the economic gloom, Trump’s overall approval rating remained stable, although at just 40% approval and 59% disapproval. His current net approval is -19 percentage points, up from -8 a year ago.
More striking is the sharp 9-point drop in the president’s net economic approval rating from the last survey in July. The president’s economic approval fell from 38% to 34% in three months and disapproval rose from 60% to 65%. The net economic approval rating of -31 is the lowest of Trump’s two terms. The 65% disapproval rating is 1 percentage point higher than former President Joe Biden’s worst showing and the highest of any president surveyed by CNBC since President Barack Obama.
Government corruption was identified as the top concern by 36% of respondents, and Democrats hold a 4-point lead in addressing this issue. On the cost of food and groceries, the second most important issue, the Democratic lead widened to +16 from +7 in the July survey. Democrats also outperformed Republicans on protecting democracy and tackling high gas prices.
Among those most interested in the election are respondents who identify corruption and protecting democracy as priority issues, and who prefer Democratic control by a wide margin in Congress.
Republicans continued to hold a strong advantage on border security and immigration, but their lead on immigration fell to +9 from +15. The Democrats, for their part, are seen as being better able to manage the problems of employment and unemployment, as well as that of Iran, which went from +2 for the Republicans to +5 for the Democrats.
Public opinion remains skeptical about the usefulness of the war in Iran. The survey reveals that only 46% of the public believe that military action was worth it to disrupt the development of Iran’s nuclear capabilities, compared to a majority of 53% in April. And only 35% believe that military action was worth it given the rise in gasoline prices.
Although the survey showed deep divisions between the parties, there was near unity on the issue of corruption. Ninety-three percent said elected officials, including the president and members of Congress, should not be allowed to personally own or trade shares of individual companies with contracts with the federal government. And 89% said businesses owned or invested in by members of a sitting president’s immediate family should not be allowed to receive contracts from the federal government.
Although corruption was a major problem, prices are clearly a priority for registered voters. Overall, concerns about the cost of food, gas and housing are the top concerns for 57% of respondents. Eighty percent say prices are increasing, an increase of 5 percentage points from last year, and 55% say they are increasing faster than usual, also an increase of 5 points. The cost of food actually eclipsed gasoline as a top concern in the survey, 34% to 23%. This is a major concern among most major demographic groups, but is higher among those making $30,000 or less and supporters of the Democratic Socialists of America agenda. Yet it’s also the main question for Republicans who don’t consider themselves MAGA supporters.
Both pollsters were cautious about the size of Democratic gains. POS’ Roberts said it was a battle between “the map and the momentum.”
“There are several indications nationally that the electorate is leaning more Democratic…but the movement is also quite concentrated, each party’s base is consolidating, and ‘big change’ depends on Democrats changing a lot of the districts and states that Trump won handily just two years ago,” he said.
Campbell doesn’t see “realignment” elections like those of 1994 and 2008, saying, “It looks like a reversion to the mean: young voters and voters of color returning to the Democratic fold, supported by independents who are fed up with Trumpenomics.” » He adds: “At no time did anyone expect that Democratic candidates would suddenly get 15% of the Republican vote. »
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