Prediction markets tied to the president’s eldest son give Democrats record odds of taking control of Congress.
Donald Trump faces a midterm nightmare as two prediction markets linked to his eldest son recorded their highest probability yet of a Democratic wipeout.
The 80-year-old president began his midterm elections on Tuesday with Republican majorities in the House and Senate at stake. Now, on Election Day, major bookmakers are predicting he will lose both houses of Congress.
At the time of publication, Polymarket put the prospect of a Democratic victory at 76 percent, while Kalshi predicted it at 75 percent.
Trump’s Election Day outlook on Polymarket is bleak.
Both numbers constitute the highest points on the historical charts displayed by the platforms. Everyone estimates that the chances of Republicans retaining both chambers are around 6 percent.
Last Friday, the respective figures stood at 68 percent in Kalshi and 70 percent in Polymarket, 7 and 6 percentage points below Tuesday’s levels.
Trump’s outlook on Kalshi isn’t much better.
Trump’s son, Donald Trump Jr., is a paid strategic advisor to Kalshi and also serves on Polymarket’s advisory board, and his past words may now come back to haunt him.
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He praised Polymarket for allowing people to “bet on what they actually believe is happening in the world,” in a statement announcing his appointment to its board.
Reality bites for Trump and Donald Trump Jr.
The odds on both markets reflect people trading contracts on election results. Kalshi posted a trading volume of over $106 million in its congressional balance of power market. Polymarket showed that more than $61 million was spent predicting midterm results.
The growing chances of a Democratic victory reflect disastrous results in the president’s favor. A Reuters/Ipsos survey released Monday finds that Trump’s approval stands at just 32 percent, while registered voters prefer Democratic congressional candidates over Republicans 46 percent to 38 percent.
Democrats need to gain three seats to win the House and four to win the Senate. Winning both would give them greater power to investigate the Trump administration and thwart its legislative agenda for the final two years of his second and final term as president.
Trump Jr. joined Kalshi in January 2025. In August of that year, venture capital firm 1789 Capital, of which he is a partner, invested in rival Polymarket by joining its advisory board.
Republican National Committee spokesperson Natalie Baldassarre told The Daily Beast: “Polls and prediction markets may present one thing, but the American people have the final say, and we remain confident that with the President on the trail and the historic accomplishments of his administration, Republicans have left everything on the field to protect our majorities and defy history. »
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