Trump’s war in Iran hurts Republicans in midterms. But he continues to suggest that things will intensify further after the election.

If the Republicans are defeated in next week’s midterms, Donald Trump’s war in Iran will be a main reason. Many voters see the 8-month, $47 billion conflict as a blatant violation of the president’s campaign pledge not to start new wars — a promise that has further driven up gas prices. Yet even if the election ends up looking like a rejection of Trump’s military adventurism, there are growing signs that the president plans to step up the fighting soon after the polls close on Tuesday. Let’s read the tea leaves.

What are the signs?

They are everywhere. As the Wall Street Journal reported this week, U.S. officials have asked U.S. allies in the Gulf to prepare for “a short, intense military campaign” after the election. According to the New York Times, the Pentagon has drawn up plans for new strikes targeting Iran’s energy infrastructure, missile batteries, drone arsenal and nuclear facilities. The United States is shipping more weapons to the region and preemptively evacuating embassies and military bases that Iran could target in retaliation. More U.S. warships are en route, carrying thousands of Marines. Meanwhile, Iran and the Gulf states, caught in the crossfire, are frantically stocking up on missiles and interceptors, as if anticipating a return to hostilities.

What did Trump say about all this?

The president has publicly pledged not to strike Iran before the midterms, but he has also suggested he plans to do so after the vote is over. This month, Trump suggested the United States would win the war “right after the election” and said, “We might have another little Epic Fury,” referring to the code name for the joint U.S.-Israeli strikes that sparked it.

Showing restraint doesn’t seem very Trump-worthy. Why does he wait until after midterms, anyway?

Carl Von Clausewitz once argued (and I’m paraphrasing and translating here, since the guy spoke German) that war is the continuation of politics by other means. However, as the midterms approach, this particular war looks more like the opposite: domestic politics dictate Trump’s approach to fighting. Instead of greenlighting further attacks on Tehran, Trump tasked the U.S. Navy with helping oil tankers transit the troubled Strait of Hormuz in an effort to keep gas prices low and save Republican Party seats. Iran, meanwhile, is doing everything in its power to keep prices high, increasing attacks on oil tankers and having its proxies target Saudi oil refineries. However, after the vote, these incentives could reverse. Unconstrained by Republicans nervous about losing their seats, Trump could step up the fighting to try to force Iran to capitulate.

So could the next attack be worse than the last?

Some Democratic lawmakers seem to think so. Chris Murphy of Connecticut, a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee who has been privy to the classified battle plans, recently called the administration’s post-election strategy “insane.” Without elaborating, Murphy suggested that Trump could target civilian infrastructure in a way that “would lead to a devastating escalation and the likely destruction of our commitment to the rule of law.”

Um, yeah. What could this mean for the conflict?

It depends on who you believe. According to The Atlantic, some close to Trump believe that U.S. sanctions have put Iran’s hard-line leaders “near the edge” and that a new round of attacks “would tip them over the edge.” Other analysts believe an escalation would only embolden Iran, which has already suffered thousands of U.S. strikes.

So what’s the big picture?

Well, keep in mind that elections can have consequences. If Democrats take back Congress, they could muster enough votes to block war funding. If Israel’s opposition parties put aside their differences after this week’s elections and unseat Benjamin Netanyahu as prime minister, Trump could lose his main partner in the fight. And if the war continues to drag on, it could become an obstacle for Vice President JD Vance – or whoever becomes the next Republican presidential nominee – in the presidential election. following elections too. They don’t call them forever wars for nothing.

Without minimizing the fear of war, it is time for radical change. Spooky season peaks tomorrow, and my colleagues have put together a wickedly good list of what to prepare, read, and dress for to start your weekend off right:

Spooky Cocktails: Double, double toil and trouble! Many people make themed cocktails to celebrate Halloween, but too often these drinks turn into tricks rather than treats. Courtney Iseman explains why fancy cocktails go wrong and gives some recipe ideas to make your spooky spirits a smashing success.

Icelandic Dracula: Shortly after that of Bram Stoker Dracula was published, a translation of the novel appeared in Iceland, with some very notable differences from the original. Where does the Nordic Dracula come from? Who wrote this version? And did Stoker really give him his blessing? Tune in to this spooky episode of Decoder Ring for “a seasonally appropriate literary mystery full of doppelgangers, supervillains, twists and turns, and vampires who simply refuse to die.”

Halloween spirit: Have you ever wondered what it’s like to work at the Spirit Halloween seasonal costume store? Luke Winkie spoke for an hour with a 20-year-old assistant principal, and it turns out it’s as scary as it sounds.

Giant skeletons: Home Depot’s 12-foot-tall skeletons are among the most coveted and visible Halloween decorations. They first went viral in 2020, and have been successful ever since, dominating yards across America in all sorts of inventive arrays. Heather Schwedel spoke with a Home Depot sales associate to get some insight into how these giant skeletons came to be.

Enjoy the weekend! I’ll see you in your inbox on Monday, with special Slatest programming while we wait for the midterms.