Tortoise Capital Managing Director Rob Thummel discusses the volatility of U.S. energy prices in Making Money.
Cold weather is approaching and the United States is expected to see record natural gas production and healthy storage levels to help protect the market from possible changes in winter conditions that could otherwise strain supply and squeeze consumers.
FOX Business exclusively viewed the Natural Gas Supply Association’s (NGSA) 2026-27 winter outlook, which forecasts U.S. dry gas production to reach a record 112.5 billion cubic feet (Bcf) per day, with storage levels elevated at 3.88 trillion cubic feet (Tcf).
Dena Wiggins, president and CEO of the NGSA, told FOX Business that “the United States is heading into winter with a very strong supply position” based on these production and storage levels heading into the winter heating season.
“This combination gives the market a strong cushion heading into the colder months. Production is expected to remain robust even as demand increases, particularly from LNG exports and the power sector,” Wiggins added.
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The United States is heading into winter with high levels of natural gas production and storage, the NGSA said. (Rebecca Droke/AFP via Getty Images)
The report notes that the projected demand increase is almost entirely driven by increased liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports, which are expected to increase by 2.3 billion cubic feet per day year-over-year, as well as long-term structural needs to fuel growing data center capacity.
Residential, commercial and industrial use is expected to remain stable under normal weather assumptions, leaving LNG exports and electricity consumption as the main drivers of total winter demand.
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Liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports are helping to support record natural gas production. (Stefan Sauer/photo alliance via Getty Images)
“Of course, weather remains the most important variable. A prolonged period of extreme cold can tighten any market,” Wiggins said. “But based on the fundamentals we see today, the United States enters this winter well-stocked and in a strong position to meet expected demand.”
“Weather is always the biggest unpredictable factor. A milder winter would mean less demand for heating and generally put additional downward pressure on prices. A colder winter would increase demand and could put upward pressure on prices, particularly during periods of prolonged extreme cold,” she added.
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Wiggins noted that U.S. pipelines are near capacity and more investment in infrastructure is needed to ensure natural gas can get where it is needed. (Kerem Yucel/AFP via Getty Images)
The NGSA report says U.S. natural gas maintains a cost advantage over Europe and Asia, although infrastructure remains a major constraint as interstate pipelines near capacity signal the need for infrastructure investment to support future load growth.
He also noted that gas provides about 40% of U.S. electricity generation, and the NGSA said it remains “the most scalable resource to meet grid reliability needs and expand digital infrastructure.”
“Looking ahead, the biggest question is not whether we have enough natural gas, but whether we have the infrastructure to get it to where we need it,” Wiggins said.
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“You can have an abundant supply, but if there is not enough pipeline capacity to get that gas to homes, power plants and businesses, consumer prices in constrained regions can be affected,” she added.
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