Ukrainian data shows its air defenses largely held up against one of Russia’s most significant new threats, despite a 10-day Starshield slowdown.
Although high-speed interceptor drones were hampered by reported throttling measures, kyiv’s forces managed to intercept 74 percent of Russian Shahed jets between October 14 and 24, compared to a usual rate of 77 percent, according to analysts at the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank.
The organization bases its analyzes on intercept data released by the Ukrainian Air Force, which claims Russia launched hundreds of turbojet attack drones during the 10-day period.
The drop of three percentage points, or about 3.8 percent, translates into a “still relatively high interception rate” but does not mean Ukraine can sit back, ISW analysts wrote.
Many of the interceptions were due to Ukrainian fighter jets engaging Russian Shahed jets with air-to-air missiles or cannons.
For months, the fighter jets have been Ukraine’s main air defense and the most effective so far against Shahed jets – an assessment that Ukrainian Air Force spokesman Col. Yuriy Ihnat repeated to local media on Monday after Starshield services returned to normal.
“We are counting on the air component,” he told RBC Ukraine, referring to helicopters and combat aircraft.
One of the main Ukrainian planes in this fight is the F-16 Fighting Falcon, which Ihnat estimated in April could shoot down 10 Russian Shaheds each in a single night. The F-16 carries the M61A1 Vulcan, a six-barrel Gatling-style rotary cannon that fires 20mm rounds.
kyiv requisitioned more than 50,000 of these shells from Denmark last week in a bid to strengthen its air defenses, while Starshield, the military version of Starlink on which its interceptor drones rely, was limited by a speed limit. This number of cartridges is enough for approximately 100 outings.
The F-16 Pillar Can’t Last Forever
But ISW analysts wrote that the F-16 strategy poses some complications for Ukraine. Using its cannon to shoot down Shahed jets, for example, “requires a high level of piloting skill and increases the risk to the airframe and pilot,” the statement wrote.
The practice also increases the maintenance needs of Ukraine’s already overburdened fighter jets and diverts them from other missions for which they might be needed, analysts added.
“Supplementing the Ukrainian air defense umbrella with interceptor drones is Ukraine’s best chance to develop a robust air defense umbrella capable of withstanding high interception rates of Russian jet drones in the long term,” the analysts wrote.
Ukraine received its first F-16s in the summer of 2024. Office of the President of Ukraine/Ukrainian Air Force/Cover images via Reuters
Indeed, before Russia began increasing jet drone launches, Ukraine had reported much higher interception rates, above 90 percent, against propeller-driven Shaheds in some months.
These have been largely bolstered by Ukraine’s mass adoption of interceptor drones, or small drones that cost only a fraction of traditional interceptor missiles.
But Russia’s increasing use of turbojet engines on its attack drones, the most advanced of which can fly at speeds of up to 370 mph, has forced Ukraine to radically evolve its designs to keep pace. Although it now has several types of drones capable of catching and destroying jet-powered Shaheds, the new interception effort as a whole is still in its early stages.
Many of these new interceptors became ineffective during the 10-day slowdown of Starshield, which Ukraine says stopped working when a drone flew at more than 100 mph.
The reason for the connectivity issues is still unclear. They appeared as President Donald Trump and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk both openly criticized Ukraine for its strikes on Russian energy infrastructure as the White House sought to lower gas prices.
Trump and Musk separately said they were not responsible for the slowdown at Starshield, which is owned and operated by the U.S. government.
Musk, while claiming that the United States controls Starshield, also later accused Ukrainian forces of violating the Starlink civilian network’s terms of service by using it for drone strikes.
On Saturday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Starshield services had been restored.
Meanwhile, some Ukrainians are already preparing for a new Russian threat, through cheap, mass-produced cruise missiles. One of these missiles, the Filin, has been listed by Russia as capable of flying at speeds of up to 500 mph.
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