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This week, a story made me speechless.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has proposed a three-way meeting with Donald Trump and China’s Xi Jinping to discuss a way out of the war in Ukraine that he started. Trump appeared to confirm this speech, without giving a date, suggesting that it could be good for the world if it included denuclearization.
If that doesn’t worry you, you should.
Putin wants a Yalta 2.0 moment. A summit that would restore its international stature and present Russia as a great power, like the tripartite summit that helped shape the post-World War II order 81 years ago in the seaside town of Yalta.
In 1945, as victory over Nazi Germany approached, Roosevelt, Churchill and Stalin met at Yalta to divide the postwar world. The conference helped lay the foundations for spheres of influence across Europe, with the Soviets subsequently strengthening their control over virtually all of Eastern Europe.
Churchill was a flawed man, but nonetheless the war hero Britain needed at the time. He came away disenchanted with the whole affair.
He knew the Soviets would swallow up half of Europe, leaving the continent divided by an iron curtain for decades to come. In the midst of all this, Poland would be sacrificed, alongside the Baltic States, a large part of Central Europe and part of the Balkans. And he was right. But he still had to accept the deal.
Yalta dictated the terms of a new world order, but also set the stage for the Cold War. Of course, the echoes of history can be cruel: Yalta has been under Russian occupation since 2014, following Moscow’s illegal annexation of Crimea.
If you follow this logic, the modern triumvirate of Trump, Xi and Putin would come together and divide the world over the next 100 years. One room for you, another for me – you get the gist of it.
Presumably, the talks would focus on Ukraine and Taiwan. If Yalta 2.0 works like the 1945 conference, the three countries would strike a deal behind the scenes and the rest of the world would have no choice but to accept it. Putin would emerge victorious, which explains why he is launching it in the first place.
Russia is a nuclear power, but it is no longer a great power. Putin, who once called the collapse of the Soviet Union the “greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century” for Russia, has long sought to restore Moscow’s lost sphere of influence.
If Trump joins the meeting, he would give the Russian leader his biggest strategic victory since the collapse of the Soviet Union.
In doing so, the American president would alienate America’s friends. Trump may not think highly of his allies, but they are crucial. Surveillance of the world has brought Washington lucrative deals, enormous influence and the military bases it needs for its own security, whether Trump wants to admit it or not.
A new Yalta without its allies would certify the death of the West as we know it.
Europeans should be very worried, because they too are on the cutting board in this dangerous situation. threesome. A behind-the-scenes deal over kyiv’s leadership would also mean the end of transatlantic relations and weaken NATO’s deterrence.
Brussels may insist that she is in the game, but it is clear that a lot is already happening behind her back. Europeans need their own peace plan and a clear definition of what a good outcome really entails – for Ukraine and for Europe.
Inevitably, this will force the EU to confront uncomfortable questions that it has long avoided, namely those of territories where Ukraine may not find the security guarantees it will have to provide in exchange for a US safety net. This requires troops on the ground to guarantee peace, and this cannot be limited to France and the United Kingdom.
The EU will also have to limit funding to Ukraine as the political cycle works against continued support. Let’s face it: it’s expensive and becoming unpopular as cost-of-living protests intensify.
Our politicians need to do a better job of explaining that our security is also at stake, with more than 4,000 kilometers of Europe’s eastern flank at stake. It is in Europe’s interest to reach a fair deal in Ukraine. The opposite will come back to haunt us.
Europe needs its own peace plan, starting with the appointment of an envoy who can secure a seat at the negotiating table, lay out a clear negotiating position and report back. This should have been done a year ago. Enough with Trump’s whisperer strategy. It doesn’t work. This remains in vain as long as Europe is not represented by someone who can speak with a political mandate.
If you’re not at the table, you’re on the menu. Serve it while it’s hot.
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