U.S. forces withdrew from their last bases in Iraq on Wednesday, raising fears they would leave behind a security vacuum, further embolden Iran-backed militias and give the resurgent Islamic State group an opportunity to regroup.
The departure, celebrated as a victory by Tehran and its allies, was agreed to in 2024 under US President Joe Biden and implemented by the administration of current President Donald Trump, even as it wages war against Iran, which exercises its influence in Iraq through proxies.
It comes 23 years after U.S.-led forces toppled dictator Saddam Hussein and then unleashed upheaval and chaos, culminating in the rise of the Islamic State group.
Although the departure of U.S. forces is widely popular among Iraqis, some worry that U.S.-trained and funded security forces still cannot protect the country, where 4,500 U.S. troops have died in more than 20 years of war.
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“The lesson of the last two decades is that security vacuums can be extremely dangerous,” said Jassim al-Bahadli, an Iraqi analyst who advises security forces.
U.S. forces invaded Iraq in 2003 and later occupied the country, installed a Shiite-led government and waged a years-long counterinsurgency — first led by Saddam loyalists, then by al-Qaeda — before withdrawing in late 2011. They returned less than three years later to help Iraqi forces defeat the Sunni militant group Islamic State in a major war from 2014 to 2017.
About twice as many Americans died in “Operation Iraqi Freedom” as in the parallel war in Afghanistan, which ended with an abrupt US withdrawal in 2021.
In this year’s conflict with Iran, 7 of 18 U.S. service members listed as killed were in Iraq, the latest being an Army sergeant who died in a controlled drone explosion at a base near Erbil in July.
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Iran, the allies are the winners
Iran, which says its ultimate goal is to force U.S. forces out of the entire Middle East, views the U.S. withdrawal from Iraq as a triumph for its “axis of resistance” of allied armed groups across the region.
“What is even more concerning is not necessarily direct Iranian intervention, but the possibility that Iran’s proxies will feel increasingly powerful in the absence of a Western military presence. These groups could attempt to expand their role in shaping state policies and consolidate their presence within key institutions,” said Ahmed Younis, a Baghdad-based political analyst.
Some Iraqi security officials, both in the federal government and in the semi-autonomous northern Kurdish region, say the U.S. withdrawal also risks giving new life to Islamic State group fighters, who, despite the defeat of their self-proclaimed caliphate nearly a decade ago, maintain a network of sleeper cells.
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At their peak, the militants occupied a third of Iraq and massacred thousands, including hundreds they filmed gunning down at a former U.S. military base.
U.S. troops have provided Iraqi security forces with critical intelligence on the movements of the Islamic State group, as well as aerial surveillance and reconnaissance.
“The most important question now is whether Iraq’s security institutions have prepared a viable plan B for the post-coalition phase,” said retired Iraqi army general Mohammed al-Jubouri, who led a brigade in the war against the Islamic State group.
“One of the worst-case scenarios would be that the Islamic State obtains armed drones or improvised explosive drones at a time when Iraq still does not have sufficient air defense capabilities to effectively counter such threats.”
(FRANCE 24 with Reuters)
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