Vikings vs Lions preview: 5 small weaknesses in Minnesota’s defense

Riding a two-game winning streak, the Detroit Lions have a huge opportunity on the field to knock the NFL’s last undefeated team off its warship throne, move closer to first place in the NFC North and avenge last year’s two losses to the Vikings, both highly uncharacteristic of the team’s identity under Dan Campbell. Before last season, Campbell won five straight games over Kevin O’Connell, including four straight with Brian Flores as defensive coordinator.

The Lions’ quest to regain the Northern throne will rest on the shoulders of their All-Pro caliber duo of Jared Goff and Jahmyr Gibbs, and an offense facing a Vikings defense under Flores that is off to a historically lethal start, plundering opponents en route to a 6-0 record (11 straight wins dating back to last season).

With the stakes incredibly high for Halloween weekend, this week’s preview dives into the skull of Detroit’s Megamind, Drew Petzing, as he takes on not only Flores but also his former quarterback, Kyler Murray. We’ll look at how the Lions’ offense can keep monsters from hiding under their beds.

Note: Unless otherwise noted, all statistics are from NFL Pro, FTN Fantasy, Pro Football Reference, SumerSports or Pro Football Focus.

The Minnesota Vikings’ pass defense, with its blitz rate of over 70.0%, has been a nightmare for opposing quarterbacks. They lead the league in EPA/kickback allowed (-0.323), pass rate allowed (38.2%), sack rate (10.1%), and pressure rate (38.6%).

The Vikings’ unpredictable, overwhelming and exotic blitzes have fooled offenses so well that teams are afraid to execute play-action passes, fearing that quarterbacks momentarily turning their backs on the defense to sell the run fake could hamper their processing and lead to immediate negative plays.

Teams average only a 19.3% success rate against Minnesota (31st), for a total of 40 such losses. The Packers had 10 turnovers in Week 1 against the Vikings, and no offense has exceeded that total in a game since. The Saints and Colts have only recorded six game losses over the past two weeks. Meanwhile, the Lions’ offense ranks fourth this season with a 33.3 percent success rate and has recorded at least 11 of those drops in every game.

Against play-action passes this season, the Vikings defense is allowing 7.9 yards per attempt (19th), +0.003 EPA/dropback (12th), a 48.3% completion rate (11th), and a staggering 13.8% explosive completion rate (27th). The inherent risk of turning your back on Minnesota’s defense and becoming the Headless Hurler is still real, as the Vikings recorded a 16.2% sack rate (1st) and a 48.6% pressure rate (1st) against drops in plays.

The Vikings haven’t really been tested against play action this season, with their matchup against the Bears taking place during a monsoon, which isn’t really a fair test of their passing attack. They also face the Bills next week, an offense with the second-highest play rate in the league. While Minnesota remains formidable against the play, particularly with its ability to generate pressure and sacks, its defense ranks outside the top 10 in several metrics. Historically, he hasn’t been as dominant against play action as he is against the run and traditional dropbacks.

As Petzing pointed out last week, and as Lions fans have witnessed for years, Jared Goff is a different breed of beast as a precision processor when it comes to play-action passes. Detroit’s offensive line is also above average in pass protection, with room to improve as its young players develop and the heady Cade Mays continues to acclimate to the center. Now it’s about proving they’re not afraid of the dark in the face of Minnesota’s pressure and are ready to challenge the Vikings with the playful passing game that has been a staple of Detroit’s offense.

The Devil is in the Dropback

We continue on the topic of counterattacks against the Vikings flooding the pass lanes with second-tier defenders such as Eric Wilson, Blake Cashman, the immortal Harrison Smith and Josh Metellus. There’s another potential problem for Detroit’s offense. It’s not often that the Vikings are forced to defend right backs under center. No team is truly in this era of the NFL, but the Lions might be equipped to do it.

The Lions are averaging just 1.8 of those dropbacks per game this season, but Jared Goff has completed 6 of 9 passes (t-2nd) for 84 yards (9.3 yards per attempt, 3rd) and two touchdowns (t-2nd). Detroit also ranks in the top 10 in completion rate and explosive completion rate on right dropbacks under center, while its 4.7 yards after catch per attempt ranks fourth. They have to be careful though, as they allowed a 40.0% quarterback pressure rate (7th) and one sack on these plays.

Fortunately, direct dropbacks under center helped disarm the Vikings a little. Flores’ furious, fang-filled force has faced 15 dropbacks under center with no play action this season (10th), allowing opponents to complete 9 of 14 passes (64.3% completion percentage, 6th) for 132 yards (9.4 yards per attempt) – almost a first down per pass attempt, albeit on a small sample size! Minnesota also ranks bottom 10 in passing rate and explosive completion rate allowed on these plays. Perhaps most surprising is that they generated pressure on just 13.3% of those drops (t-27th).

The real treat is that the Vikings defense is allowing a league-worst 6.4 yards after catch per attempt on such passes. Maybe all those aggressive, aggressive looks at the line of scrimmage are proving dangerous, with defenders scrambling to get into coverage position after the snap and missing tackles.

This preview aims to find the small levers the Lions offense can pull against the most dangerous defense in the league. The Vikings’ pass defense seems inevitable. Stay on the field long enough and they’ll get you. They will force you to make mistakes.

Much like play passes, right dropbacks under center provide a small avenue to exploit Minnesota’s aggression, put its defenders on their heels and produce big plays. This is an opportunity to move quickly down the field, catch Flores’ defense with its pants down and put the ball in the hands of Detroit’s best playmakers with room to operate.

Lions receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown can be a ghoul for opposing defenses. That’s part of why he’s a three-time All-Pro in a row, and his hands, toughness and consistency have helped him kill the Vikings in the past.

Over his last six games against the Vikings, St. Brown averaged 10.8 targets, 8.3 receptions, 100.7 receiving yards, 0.5 touchdowns and 5.1 first downs per game. This production is more coherent and menacing than Michael Myers terrorizing Haddonfield, Illinois. And while everyone loves Dr. Loomis, Flores could just as easily play his role, desperately trying and repeatedly failing to contain Detroit’s Michael Myers offense.

Against the blitz this season, St. Brown recorded 25 targets, 16 receptions, 204 receiving yards, three touchdowns and 70 yards after catch. All five rank in the top 10 among wide receivers against the blitz. He’s been a ball magnet for Jared Goff when defenses bring in extra rushers.

Last season, St. Brown was targeted 61 times against the blitz, hauling in 39 receptions (2nd) for 593 receiving yards (2nd), four touchdowns and 329 yards after catch (1st). The Sun God was Detroit’s secret weapon against the blitzkrieg.

As a secondary sidekick, although Sam LaPorta didn’t have the same sustained success against the Vikings, he recorded eight targets, six receptions, 97 receiving yards (16.2 yards per reception), one touchdown and four first downs in his only game against them last year. More importantly, LaPorta is eating blitz defenses alive this season.

Against the blitz, LaPorta recorded 14 targets, 11 receptions, 169 receiving yards (2nd among TEs), two touchdowns and 92 yards after catch (4th among TEs). His EPA receiving total of 15.1 ranks second among tight ends and fifth among all players.

Between St. Brown and LaPorta, Goff has a pair of bogeymen capable of giving Flores’ defense a taste of its own nightmare fuel.

You can’t run and you can’t hide from the Vikings defense when trying to run from center, as Minnesota leads the NFL in EPA/rush allowed (-0.26) and rushing success rate allowed (27.8%), among a litany of other metrics in that category.

However, they got their teeth kicked against 34 shotgun runs this season:

The stats are so striking that they are almost unrecognizable as belonging to the same Vikings defense.

In shotgun carries this season, Jahmyr Gibbs has rushed 17 times for 89 yards (5.24 yards per carry) and an impressive 2.41 yards before contact per carry. He was also one of the most efficient running backs on men’s shotgun runs, with seven carries for 49 yards (7.0 yards per carry) and a league-leading 3.57 yards before contact per attempt. He recorded three runs of 10+ yards (1st) and forced two missed tackles on those attempts.

It’s a small sample size, but it’s yet another chainsaw for Drew Petzing and the Lions offense to run Flores’ attack. Give Gibbs a shotgun look, let his offensive line pulverize an unprepared defensive front and let Gibbs do the rest.

Night of the Living Linemen

When it comes to those physically imposing offensive linemen, Detroit’s unit still has many imperfections, but like Frankenstein’s monster, it has been pieced together and brought back to life. It’s important to remind Lions fans how much this group has evolved from last year’s makeshift offensive line, especially the units tasked with protecting Jared Goff and opening escape routes for Jahmyr Gibbs against the Vikings defense.

Lions Offensive Line – 2025 Weeks 9 and 17 vs. Minnesota (played snapshots)

The uncertainty and inexperience early last season was a real problem and played into the hands of the Vikings. Week 8 at Ford Field should provide more fertile ground for Detroit’s offense, with Sewell, Mahogany, Mays, Ratledge and Blake Miller forming a more developed and improved unit, better equipped to handle Flores’ blitzes and prevent Dallas Turner, Jalen Redmond and Andrew Van Ginkel from slaughtering the Detroit backfield.