Voters split on whether to save Bay Area transit

The Bay Area’s transit systems are at risk of being decimated as soon as next year, and voters are divided on whether to help save them by approving a sales tax increase, according to a poll released this week.

Only 48% of respondents said they would vote for the November Regional Transportation Measure, or RTM, according to a poll conducted by Embold Research for the Silicon Valley joint venture and the Bay Area News Group; 34% said they would not and 18% said they were still undecided.

The measure aims to bail out the region’s transit agencies, including BART, SF’s Muni, Caltrain and Oakland’s AC Transit, all of which are facing serious budget shortfalls. If voters pass the measure, it would increase the sales tax by 0.5 percentage points in San Mateo, Santa Clara, Contra Costa and Alameda counties and by 1 percentage point in San Francisco, and is expected to generate about $980 million annually over the next 14 years.

If the measure fails, Muni could be forced to cut service by 30% and cancel about 20 lines, and BART could have to cut service by about 70% and close 15 stations as early as January, according to these agencies’ forecasts. Caltrain would also potentially reduce weekend service and limit weekday service to once per hour. A September research report from SPUR, a nonprofit organization, estimated that the cuts would increase traffic and congestion in the Bay Area, including doubling travel times on the Bay Bridge.

“The impacts would be dramatic,” the report said. “Our analysis finds that reducing transit service would push more people to use cars, worsening congestion on already congested highways and increasing travel distances, parking demand, driving costs and greenhouse gas emissions.”

If voters get the 48% approval rating on Election Day, the measure will fail, as it needs more than 50% support to pass.

Jeff Cretan, a spokesperson for the Yes on RTM campaign, told SFGATE in an email that the Embold Research poll results “should not be treated as an accurate measure” of voter sentiment because the poll question did not reflect what voters will see on the ballot. The poll question left out that the measure would help reduce traffic and pollution, increase the safety and reliability of public transportation and prevent future cuts.

“Our own polling has shown that when voters become aware of the issues, they move in our direction,” Cretan said.

He pointed to a July poll by the group that found 54 percent of respondents supported the measure, and 46 percent opposed it. It also found that support increased to 58% after voters learned more about the serious consequences of the Bay Area’s transit cuts.

Tuesday’s poll found that young people and renters were the groups most supportive of the tax. It found that 69% of adults under 35 and 60% of renters were in favor of the measure. People aged 50 to 64 are most opposed to the measure, with 46% planning to vote no. And 42% of respondents aged 65 or over were against this measure.

San Francisco’s municipal transit agency said in April that it was facing the most severe financial crisis in its history. He blames rising labor costs and also highlights mandatory increases in health and retirement benefits.

The measure received support from San Francisco State Sen. Scott Wiener and Berkeley State Sen. Jesse Arreguín, who helped put the measure on the ballot, as well as transit advocacy groups. The San Francisco Chronicle also endorsed the measure. (The Chronicle and SFGATE are both owned by Hearst but have separate newsrooms.) ConnectedSF, an advocacy group backed by Y Combinator CEO Garry Tan, endorsed the no vote on both RTM and Measure H, a local SF funding measure for Muni. Measure H would create a new property tax based on flat fees per parcel of property.

The main opposition to the measure comes from local anti-tax groups, who argue that fixes would need to be made to the budget before agencies receive any more funding. Former BART board director Debora Allen also urged voters, in a Voice of San Francisco op-ed, to reject the tax until agencies reduce administrative costs.

The San Francisco Municipal Transportation Agency has more than 538,000 weekday riders, and more than 40 percent of them use Muni to get to and from work, while the rest use it for personal travel, according to a July report from the agency. BART recently reported that it had more than 212,000 weekday riders in August, a 14% increase from last year.

The poll released Tuesday was conducted by Embold Research between August 5 and 18 and surveyed 1,801 adults in Alameda, Contra Costa, San Francisco, San Mateo and Santa Clara counties. The margin of error was 2.6 percentage points.