If week 2 marks the end of our priorities, weeks 3 and 4 are often weeks where we wait for the carnage to set in. Sometimes things seem a little better than expected, sometimes they seem a little worse. And sometimes, sometimes, Drake Maye turns into a pumpkin and we’re all wondering what to do.
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Kenyon Sadiq, New York Jets — It was always obvious that Sadiq would be a potent weapon for the Jets at some point, but the question was when “a certain point” would arrive. With Adonai Mitchell Down low, Sadiq played a big role for the Jets going 7/105 on eight targets against the Lions, adding a touchdown.
Sadiq’s escape leaves us with more questions than answers. What happens when Mitchell is healthy? What happens when Mason Taylor actually plays? What happens when he plays on a secondary full of players with major NFL contracts in the future instead of the replacement guys the Lions called up to surround DJ Reed? But he looked talented enough that it was hard to put all the genie back in the bottle. And the bar for breaking “TE1”’s relevance is lower than ever. Sadiq must be granted a waiver in all leagues where he is available. He has championship winning potential even if the situation is murkier than we would like.
Jeremiah Love, Arizona Cardinals — Love hasn’t taken a big step forward Tyler Allgeier solely on the snap, as he only managed a 55-35 split of running back reps. But the No. 3 overall pick had 26 touches to Allgeier’s six, a split that frankly even Bijan Robinson struggled to create with Allgeier for four years. Love finished with 119 total yards and a receiving touchdown as one of the best volume backs of the week.
The caveat here is that this was a game where the 49ers dominated the game script. NFL Pro never gave the Cardinals more than a 30% chance of winning the game based on their modeling and the game situation, as the 49ers quickly built a 17-6 halftime lead. This is something I don’t think we talk about enough in fantasy circles: When we go into catch-up mode, the instant running back splits can often be drastically different.
Anyway, call me a bit of a love skeptic: I still don’t think I’d trust him to develop that kind of ball dominance from game to game, based on how this one played out. But it’s impossible to say his stock isn’t on the rise after showing that kind of upside in an end-game scenario, especially since the Cardinals seem to be the kind of defense that does that from time to time. This looks like a positive RB2 instead of someone I struggle to deal with on a weekly basis due to workload issues.
Ollie Gordon II, Miami Dolphins — Some of these Stock Up ideas don’t end up being complex and end up being about injuries. Injuries suck. It seems that De’Von Achane (knee) suffered a major problem while we were sitting Sunday evening.
Gordon had a team-high 17 carries and added three catches for 55 yards and a rushing touchdown against the Chiefs. I suspect this will be the highlight of his season, mainly because the Dolphins simply didn’t have a pure second running back with Jaylen Wright injured and inactive. Hunter Jarquez And Carlos Washington are on the practice squad and I suspect someone will share the workload with Gordon.
But that also doesn’t mean Gordon won’t have any value. He’ll likely be the leader at least until Wright is healthy, and he’d probably have a good chance of being the leader of a committee for the rest of the season. The Dolphins clearly want to run the football. Even in a game where they were outplayed by the Chiefs, they still ran the ball 31 times. Malik Willis this will help distract the attention of whoever was behind here. Don’t think Gordon will bring RB2 numbers, but he can be a good replacement for a bye week.
Tre’Harris, Los Angeles Chargers — The Chargers have never played a normal football game. I thought it would be Oronde Gadsden who benefited from the absence of David Njoku And Charlie Kolar. Instead, he bageled and they chose Harris as the main piece in the passing game. Harris had been pretty involved this year. He’s actually played 136 snaps in three games, and he already had a six-target game in Week 1 as well as a 53-yard catch in Week 2. So there were signs, but we didn’t see it unfold like it did in Week 3 when he led the team in yards, targets, and receptions.
The real story here is that Quentin Johnston was miserable for three weeks, as his 64 receiving yards on 17 targets allowed other receivers to get in on the action. I don’t know yet if Harris is a fantasy starter — I don’t think anyone on the Chargers is a surefire fantasy starter right now, as we’ll get to — but he at least creates a FLEX case with some room for growth if Mike McDaniel never figured out how to put these pieces together. His history suggests he will, and as I was reminded all week when I posted that I didn’t think the Chargers offense was dead, the Chargers’ history does not.
Stock falling
Malik Nabers, New York Giants — This may be a short-term list in the Stock Down section, but it’s already abundantly clear that Nabers is not the kind of quarterback who fits what the Giants want to be as an offense through two games. He finished Week 3 at 5/26 on six targets and Week 2 at 1/4 on four targets. The Titans aren’t exactly a unit that a good offense should have issues with, so it was very concerning for the Giants to come out of there with 12 points, wind or no wind.
The hanging sword of this situation is how effusive the reports are that the Giants are trying to sign new quarterbacks. Some reports have mentioned the arrival of “multiple” quarterbacks. Brandon Allenwell, difficult scene for Nabers. But I’ll maintain some optimism here that the Giants can trade for someone to help them (snicker, snicker) stay in the playoff race at 2-1. As things stand, however, it appears it will be difficult for Nabers to outperform WR3 value for fantasy managers who likely spent a top-15 pick on him.
Omarion Hampton. Los Angeles Chargers — Looking for some sort of spark against the Bills, the Chargers actually spread themselves out in transfers. Keaton Mitchell. What’s worse? It worked. Mitchell averaged 6.5 yards per pop and scored a touchdown on a red zone pass. Hampton had minus 11 rushing yards above expectations against the Bills and, while I think a lot of the problem is with his offensive line, his running style doesn’t help. The Chargers need some track speed to get past defenders in the backfield before blowing a play. Through three games, according to TruMedia, he’s averaging just 0.86 yards before contact per carry.
I don’t think any of this is Hampton’s fault. He’s still a good player trying to make the best of a bad situation, but given how desperate the Chargers are for a spark on offense, I could see them continuing to lean more toward Mitchell. And while Mitchell may not be better than a FLEX play in the interim, he could bring Hampton’s fantasy value to its knees in a real way.
Drake Maye and the Patriots offense — I’m very tired of doing the “this young quarterback is a superfraud” thing. If there’s one thing the last few years have taught us, it’s that good young quarterbacks can statistically regress quickly. CJ Stroud And Jayden Daniels walked during their second year so that Drake Maye could run in his third. I think quarterback is a position where if we don’t get in big names with tons of experience who know every inch of the rolodex despite all the pressures, the picture is painted with the supporting cast.
And Maye’s supporting cast isn’t good. AJ Brown is on injured reserve. The offensive line is struggling. Maye has been holding the ball for too long trying to find knockout shots as he has fun with a new “No. 2” in Romeo Doubs. His average pressure, according to PFF, comes with an average time to throw of 3.72 seconds. He’s struggled before, but this week’s debacle in Jacksonville was so bad he had only himself to blame.
The problem is this: it doesn’t matter if I think Maye is still a good quarterback. When these situations start to snowball, they don’t always get better. Mike Onwenu won’t be back anytime soon. Jared Wilson will not be a good pass blocking center. Alijah Vera Tucker maybe just a solid veteran rather than a difference maker. I still think very highly of Maye. But I also have high regard for Stroud and Daniels, and that doesn’t mean I want either to start in fantasy football either. I would park Maye at the back of the QB1 ranks for now.
Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers offense — Even when the Buccaneers were healthy this year, they had already been pretty healthy disappointments. Sunday night’s update on Mayfield, who left the game with an injury that ended in a dislocated thumb with an MRI incoming, was brutal for almost everyone involved. True UDFA recruit Milestone Daniels is the backup, so there is unlikely to be any improvement on the bench. And Mayfield played so poorly despite his injuries last year that it’s hard to believe he’ll improve from where things are going. Bucky Irving Likewise, he was spotted on the sideline for much of the fourth quarter, leaving his status for Week 4 in real doubt.
It’s difficult to gauge the extent of the damage from where we sit Sunday night, but I’d be surprised if anyone other than Emeka Egbuka and Irving (when healthy) emerged from that wreck as a fantasy starter in most leagues. Even that remains mostly a volume game. Chris Godwin has yet to score more than four targets in a game. Jalen McMillan took precedence over Ted Hurstwho scored a 40-yard touchdown in this game, but who was above all a merchant of prayer yards.
As for Mayfield, well, we’ll see how the injury plays out. He’s playing so frantically right now that it’s almost impossible for this offense to stay on schedule. He had 13 sacks in three games. There are a number of quarterbacks fighting at the end of the QB2 ranks to stay in superflex and Mayfield is currently playing like someone who doesn’t want to be on that line.
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