Week four of the NFL season kicked off Thursday night, as Deshaun Watson and the Cleveland Browns improved to 3-1 on the season with an impressive 27-24 victory over Aaron Rodgers’ Pittsburgh Steelers as three-point home underdogs.
How will the rest of the weekend’s matches take place?
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We used a mixed model with four NFL power ratings, including FPI rankings from ESPN and DVOA from FTN Fantasy, and asked Claude to simulate the final score of each Week 4 game and briefly describe why the game would play out that way. We also asked him to indicate the winner of the spread and whether the game was over or under the total.
Here are the results of each match in Week 4:
Indianapolis Colts (-4, 48.5) vs. Washington Commanders (in London)
The market has Indianapolis by four, but my grades put it closer to a pick’em. Both defenses are bad: Indianapolis allows +19.2% DVOA and Washington +8.3%. Both teams are giving up around 30 points per game, so this should be a high score. The Colts’ special teams (+9.4%) give them a slight advantage on a neutral field, but Washington getting four points is the best value.
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Projected score: Colts 26, Commanders 25
SU winner: Colts
ATS winner: Commanders +4
OR : On
Tennessee Titans vs. Baltimore Ravens (-12, 42.5)
Baltimore’s offense is third in DVOA (+28.1%) and scores 30.7 points per game. Tennessee is 0-3, scores 12.3 PPG and has one of the worst special teams units in the league (-11.0%). The Ravens win comfortably, but the model’s 11-point margin is half a point shy of the spread, so the Titans are only barely covering. The over is more regular: Baltimore’s defense is only average, so Tennessee should reach 17 points.
Projected score: Ravens 28, Titans 17
SU winner: Crows
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ATS winner: Titan +12
OR : On
New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills (-6.5, 48.5)
Buffalo’s offense (+37.5% DVOA) should dominate a Patriots offense that ranks last (-29.9%) after a 35-6 loss at Jacksonville. New England’s defense is good (eighth) and Buffalo’s defense (22nd) just survived a game with a minus-four turnover, keeping this from being a blowout. The model’s 6.6-point margin is just beyond the new number, so the Bills are covered by a hair. Treat it like a skinny, not a choice. New England only scores 12 per game, keeping the total near 45, under 48.5.
Projected score: Bills 26, Patriots 19
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SU winner: Invoices
ATS winner: Bills -6.5
OR : Below
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5, 51.5)
It’s a toss-up, and Jacksonville’s defense tilts it. The Jaguars rank second in DVOA (+43.1%) and allow just 12 points per game. Cincinnati is good (+18.8%, seventh) but allows 21 per game and is only favored on the ground. Jacksonville plus 2.5 is solid value. The total of 51 is the highest on the list, but an elite defense tops it out at around 47.
Bet on the Jacksonville Jaguars to Cover the Spread at Sports Betting
Projected score: Jaguars 24, Bengals 23
SU winner: Jaguar
ATS winner: Jaguar +2.5
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OR : Below
Arizona Cardinals (-2.5, 44) vs. New York Giants
The market favors Arizona, but its defense is 31st in DVOA (+21.9%) and allows 27 points per game. The Giants’ offense is mediocre (-16.0%), but their special teams (+9.4%, second) can win a close game. My composite scores put New York slightly ahead. Both offenses are limited, so the model projects under 44.
Projected score: Giants 22, Cardinals 20
SU winner: Giants
ATS winner: Giants +2.5
OR : Below
New York Jets vs. Chicago Bears (-3.5, 43)
Chicago scores 29.7 per game and allows 17.7, and its offense is eighth in DVOA. The Bears beat Philadelphia 27-7 last week with Case Keenum at quarterback. The Jets have just lost to Detroit and have mediocre special teams (-7.4%, 28th). The model projects a five-point Chicago win, covering -3.5. The Bears alone should score around 25, and the Jets come in at 20, which erases 43.
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Projected score: Bears 25, Jets 20
SU winner: Bear
ATS winner: Bear -3.5
OR : On
Dallas Cowboys vs. Houston Texans (-3, 48)
Dallas has a top-five offense (+22.6% DVOA, 29.3 points per game) but a poor defense (27th). Houston is 0-3, although DVOA still ranks it 17th. My composite ratings give Dallas a slight edge, so the Cowboys’ +3 is on the value side. The model projects 49 points in total, or just over 48, making it the thinnest model on the board.
Projected score: Texans 25, Cowboys 24
SU winner: Texans
ATS winner: Cowboys +3
OR : On
Los Angeles Rams (-3.5, 43) vs. Philadelphia Eagles
The Rams’ DVOA (+13.9%, 10th) is better than their 1-2 record, with a top-five defense. But their special teams are last in the league (-13.0%), and they blew a 16-0 lead against Denver. Philadelphia is scoring 18.3 per game after a 27-7 loss to Chicago, but that’s at home. With a total of 43, an extra score or special teams play tips the scales, but treat him like a scrawny.
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Projected score: Rams 23, Eagles 21
SU winner: Rams
ATS winner: Eagles +3.5
OR : On
Green Bay Packers (-3.5, 39) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Green Bay is the obvious choice with Baker Mayfield out. The Packers’ defense is the main reason for this, even though their DVOA is a modest +12.8%. Tampa Bay’s 20.7 points per game came from Mayfield, and a rookie making his first start should score less. Jalon Daniels’ running ability and a simplified game plan around Emeka Egbuka and Bucky Irving help a bit. The model’s 4.4 point margin exceeds the 3.5 margin, but only by about a point, so it’s a meager margin. Both offenses are mediocre, but the model projects around 41, a few points above 39.
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Projected score: Packers 23, Buccaneers 18
SU winner: Packers
ATS winner: Packers -3.5
OR : On
Miami Dolphins vs. Minnesota Vikings (-10.5, 39)
Miami is last in every ranking I’ve used and only scores 12 PPG. Minnesota is 3-0, has the league’s best defense (-30.3% DVOA) and special teams (+12.8%), and its blitz scheme under Brian Flores creates short fields. The model projects a 12-point win, narrowly covering 11. The Vikings’ offense is weak (-25.8%), which limits the margin. Defensive or return scores push the total past 39.
Projected score: Vikings 26, Dolphins 14
SU winner: Vikings
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ATS winner: Vikings -10.5
OR : On
Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5, 47.5) vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Kansas City is 3-0, fourth in DVOA and allowing 16.7 points per game. Las Vegas has good defense (-10.3%) and special teams (+5.6%), but an average offense. The model has the Chiefs winning by four, a half point shy of the number, so the Raiders cover. Two strong defenses project around 46 points, under 47.5.
Projected score: Chiefs 25, Raiders 21
SU winner: Chefs
ATS winner: Raiders +4.5
OR : Below
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Seattle Seahawks (-7, 42.5)
The Chargers are 0-3, have scored fewer than 20 points in six straight games and rank 31st in DVOA. Seattle has the third best defense (-20.9%), allows 16.7 per game and is coming off its first loss in 13 games. The model projects an 8-point win, covering 7 close. Seattle’s offense (25 per game) should reach the mid-20s, and Los Angeles only needs about 17 to bring the total above 42.5.
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Projected score: Seahawks 26, Chargers 18
SU winner: sea hawks
ATS winner: Seahawks -7
OR : On
Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba (11) celebrates before an NFL football game against the Washington Commanders, Sunday, Aug. 27, 2026, in Landover, Maryland.
(AP Photo/Daniel Kucin Jr.)
Denver Broncos vs. San Francisco 49ers (-2.5, 48)
San Francisco leads in DVOA at +68.7%, with a historically good passing attack. ESPN’s FPI has the 49ers as a 7.9-point favorite, so 2.5 seems short. Denver has a below-average offense (-6.8%) and is averaging 20 points per game, despite its comeback against the Rams. The model has San Francisco winning by about 6.5. Both defenses are solid, so the total sits near 47, trending slightly below 48.
Projected score: 49ers 27, Broncos 20
SU winner: 49ers
ATS winner: 49ers -2.5
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OR : Below
Detroit Lions (-3.5, 51) vs. Carolina Panthers
Two good offenses meet two bad defenses. Detroit scores 31 per game but allows 31.7 (28th in DVOA). Carolina scores 29.7 per game and Bryce Young leads the league in passing yards. The model only gives Detroit a one-point advantage, so Carolina covers at home. With point leaks in both defenses, the model’s total of 53 points beats the 51 shown.
Bet on the Carolina Panthers to Cover the Spread at Sports Betting
Projected score: Lions 27, Panthers 26
SU winner: Lions
ATS winner: Panthers +3.5
OR : On
Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints (-2.5, 47.5)
Both teams are in the bottom third of the league. Atlanta climbed to 23rd in DVOA after beating Green Bay, but only scores 17 per game. The Saints score slightly higher on FPI, nfelo, and DVOA, so they win, but a two-point margin doesn’t cover 2.5. Atlanta’s weak offense keeps the total near 46, under 47.5.
Projected score: Saints 25, Falcons 22
SU winner: Saints
ATS winner: Saints -2.5
OR : Below
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