The movement portion of the program is over for college football’s Power Four programs.
Week 5 brings tougher conference matchups in the top 25, and a few contenders are on the verge of whether the early season success carries over.
This is where the potential for an upset becomes interesting every weekend. Teams with superior numbers can survive a slow quarter against overmatched opponents, but the margin for error diminishes on the road, and a few undefeated SEC top 10 teams hit the road as narrow favorites Saturday in a prime spot for a disappointment.
With the College Football Playoff picture still taking shape, the mission is to come out of Week 5 with a win. We put Michigan and Louisville on alert at home last week, and both were beaten while Iowa and Wake Forest made their respective rises in the national conversation.
Here are the teams facing the most uncomfortable matchups this weekend as schedules begin to take their toll. One team that narrowly missed this group this week is Ohio State, which is a 13.5-point favorite over Iowa. The Hawkeyes are undefeated after beating Michigan, while the Buckeyes have already lost after the Week 2 loss at Texas.
College Football Odds and Predictions: Ohio State vs. Iowa, Alabama vs. Mississippi State Leads Week 5
Brad Crawford
State of Pennsylvania
Opponent: in the North-West (+2.5)
Everything has been building this season at Northwestern leading up to this game as the Wildcats open new Ryan Field Friday evening. This should have been a nationally ranked Penn State team coming to Evanston, Ill., but the Nittany Lions failed to hold a lead in the second half against Wisconsin last week. Northwestern was competitive in a 29-23 loss to Indiana and is playing with extreme confidence thanks to offensive schematic overhauls made this fall by Chip Kelly and quarterback Aidan Chiles.
Penn State quarterback Rocco Becht is coming off his worst performance in four seasons as a Power Four starting quarterback after going 12 of 29 for 114 yards and an interception without a touchdown pass against the Badgers.
“He’s a competitor, he’s tough, he handles really well. He throws a really good ball and, at the end of the day, he’s a winner,” Northwestern coach David Braun said of Becht this week. “I’m excited to continue to go through our process and identify a limitation or a weakness, but it’s really hard to find one right now. I think that’s the ultimate compliment: This guy is a winner.”
No. 7 Alabama
Opponent: at No. 16 Mississippi State (+5.5)
The best quarterback matchup of the weekend, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Keelon Russell and Kamario Taylor combine for eight touchdowns in this one. Alabama’s defense is giving up yards in chunks this season despite going undefeated, while the Bulldogs are coming off their first top-25 win in three years under Jeff Lebby. The Heisman race takes center stage in Starkville, with the winner closing in on Jeremiah Smith and Darian Mensah at the top.
Kalen DeBoer vs. Ranked Alabama Teams
against Georgia n°2 | 2024 | F, 41-34 |
at No. 11 Tennessee | 2024 | L, 24-17 |
against No. 21 Missouri | 2024 | F, 34-0 |
at No. 15 LSU | 2024 | W, 42-13 |
at n°5 Georgia | 2025 | F, 24-21 |
against No. 16 Vanderbilt | 2025 | F, 30-14 |
at No. 14 Missouri | 2025 | F, 27-24 |
against No. 11 Tennessee | 2025 | F, 37-20 |
against No. 11 Oklahoma | 2025 | L, 23-21 |
No. 3 Georgia | 2025 (SEC title game) | L, 28-7 |
at No. 8 Oklahoma | 2025 (first round of the CFP) | F, 34-24 |
against No. 1 Indiana | 2025 (CFP quarter-final) | L, 38-3 |
No. 8 Florida
Opponent: at No. 25 Missouri (+5.5)
Why does the line under a touchdown here for a red-hot team go against a team that is still hanging in the air in the national rankings despite a fourth-quarter disappointment last week at Mississippi State? This is where you lean towards the punters. The emotional level of Ole Miss’ destruction in Week 4 will be hard to match for the Gators on the road against a team that plays a similar offensive style focused on the line of scrimmage.
Assuming Florida finishes the season as one of the top teams in the SEC, a win at the position for Eli Drinkwitz would be his first with the Tigers against an opponent that finishes the season with a league winning record. I had to triple check that stat – 0-16 all-time – this week to make sure it was accurate.
No. 17 Tennessee
Opponent: against Auburn (+7.5)
Auburn defensive coordinator DJ Durkin likes to turn up the heat defensively, and after seeing last week’s film of the Texas defensive line feasting on the Vols, he’ll have something planned for Tennessee and quarterback Faizon Brandon this weekend. That said, it would be a lot more concerning for the Vols if this game was played on The Plains. Neyland Stadium is expected to create a noisy environment and make things difficult for Auburn’s offense, which has been up and down through the first four weeks of the season.
There’s also the homecoming angle for Tigers coach Alex Golesh. Golesh spent several years on Josh Heupel’s staff as offensive coordinator and knows what this unit likes to do and how it is run. If there’s a coach in the SEC who can combat Tennessee’s strengths on this side of the football, it should be someone who helped orchestrate it in 2021 and 2022.
No. 20 Houston
Opponent: against UCF (+12.5)
Are the Knights back under Scott Frost? Their only loss this season was a 12-7 setback to undefeated Pittsburgh on Sept. 12, and their win over TCU in last week’s Big 12 opener was notable. Frost has already shown some gamesmanship before this one after refusing to wear his team’s home jerseys in response to Houston’s whiteout request. The Cougars wear their light blue alternates instead. With a trip to Kansas State looming for Houston, the Cougars need to avoid overlooking UCF.
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