Months of election drama will finally end Tuesday as voters across America head to the polls. Like a Game of Thrones the series finally works towards the finale, hopefully with a less divisive resolution.
The “will they or won’t they” saga has been more intense than pretty much anything else happening on screen this season (well, except for You can see everythingOf course). Hollywood — at least judging by the fundraising efforts of major entertainment figures for Democratic candidates in Texas, Georgia, Florida and elsewhere — has a vested interest in winning a Democratic swing in both houses of Congress.
So, is this happening?
The House almost surely appears headed toward a Democratic transfer of power: The party needs only three seats, and more than a dozen Republican seats are struggling in the polls. A blue wave, or at least a strong ripple, on that side. (High Democratic turnout in early voting is even more encouraging for the party’s prospects.) But the Senate, where Democrats must flip four of 22 Republican seats to win reelection while retaining all 13 of their own (or flip five if they lose one), seems a much bleaker prospect.
Currently, Republicans are behind in elections in at least eight elections where they currently hold seats. An obvious reversal, right? Not so fast. The Trump era has been defined by Republican undercounts in pre-election polls, which could make some of the Democratic gains illusory, even though midterm polls tend to be more accurate. (MAGA supporters – those least likely to respond to polls – tend not to participate as much in midterm elections, making their non-responses less impactful.)
This undercount makes very close races in Alaska, Maine and Iowa much more likely to break for Republicans. This is especially true in Alaska, where recent backlash over Sullivan-gate — that is, Democrat Mary Peltola’s alleged orchestration of the campaign to get a second Dan Sullivan on the ballot and potentially confuse supporters of the Republican candidate of the same name — could tip the election in favor of the Republican Party. The Republican candidates in Maine and Iowa, meanwhile, enjoy great sympathy among voters.
Democrats appear to have larger edges in Texas, Ohio and North Carolina, making them likely, if not certain, to turn blue. North Carolina Democrat Roy Cooper is firmly in control, Texas’ James Talarico has widened his advantage in recent days over Ken Paxton, and former Sen. Sherrod Brown has begun to take a clear, if narrow, advantage over Jon Husted, in office for just two years as JD Vance’s replacement.
That means Democrats will have to make another leap, and it’s unclear where that will come from. Kansas may be the best bet, with moderate Democratic pastor Rev. Adam Hamilton putting some light between himself and incumbent Roger Marshall. And Marshall is unpopular – but Kansas hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate since the Great Depression (or, in cinematic terms, the year Grand Hotel won best picture).
An That could open the door to her pediatrician challenger, Annie Andrews, who a few months ago thought it was a lost cause.
If Kansas or South Carolina go the Democrats’ way — and honestly if you had mentioned that possibility six months ago, people would have thought you were Sarah Connor-level crazy — then the attention turns to the Democrats trying to defend their contested seats. While that seems likely in races already underway in Minnesota, Georgia and New Hampshire, such a prospect is more uncertain in Michigan, where Dr. Abdul El-Sayed, facing a stunning Democratic mutiny from former primary challenger Haley Stevens, could see some moderates bleed to his Republican opponent, Mike Rogers. If, against all odds, El-Sayed doesn’t win the race — and, to be clear, with a five-point lead in the polls, the smart money is still with him — then the Democrats would need one more change beyond the targeted four.
Yet even if they don’t succeed and the Senate ends up scoring 50-50 (and decided by the vice president), it could hamper the Republican Party’s agenda, since such a tally opens up the possibility of removing any Republican from caucus to block a vote. (Democrats call this Joe Manchin Syndrome.)
Democrats might rejoice in a potential major blue-red reversal — but it’s not in the Senate. Florida has not elected a Democratic governor in 32 years. But David Jolly is a few points shy of the Trump-backed Byron Donalds, and the idea of a Democrat — even if not long ago a Republican — replacing Ron DeSantis in the nation’s third-most populous state would certainly add a bit of thickening to the stew.
What is at stake for the Democrats and all those who support them in Hollywood? A bulwark against Donald Trump, to begin with, but also a rare chance to control both chambers during the next term. The party has only been able to do this once in the past 16 years and only three times since 1994. Before that, it happened regularly: the 1994 election and its famous Gingrichian “Contract with America” revolution ended eight straight years of Democratic control of both bodies.
Of course, who remembers that? You had to work in Hollywood when the first Lion King came out to harbor such a memory. A majority in the Senate rises and falls like the sun.
Gn entert
