Serbia has reached a turning point after 14 years of authoritarian rule by Aleksandar Vucic and his Serbian Progressive Party (SNS).
Sunday’s election gave a historic victory to the opposition Student List, ending the political dominance that Vucic and the SNS had exercised/reinforced for 14 years.
As Belgrade prepares for a turbulent transition and upcoming presidential elections in December, international observers and regional neighbors are wondering whether Vucic’s departure will lead to a change in Serbia’s foreign policy.
However, while international analysts often anticipate a rapid pivot in foreign policy toward the West upon the fall of an authoritarian regime, experts warn that internal consolidation will be an immediate priority and that any transformation will be gradual.
Household cleaning before regional reset
The defeat of the SNS brought a mixture of cautious optimism and uncertainty to the Western Balkans. Serbia’s relations with Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Montenegro and Kosovo have often been damaged by Vucic’s nationalist rhetoric.
Aleksandar Popov, director of the Center for Regionalism in Novi Sad in Serbia, told Al Jazeera that a quick reset of regional relations was unlikely.
“These issues will not be on the immediate agenda,” he said, referring to relations with Serbia’s neighbors.
The new authorities will first have to tackle domestic problems, he said, including a system that has “captured all democratic institutions”, as well as problems in the judiciary, the prosecution, the police and the media sector.
“Cleaning up” will take priority before “solving problems with neighbors,” Popov said, while stressing that the outgoing regime had done everything possible to undermine regional relations.
If relations with Croatia are “not frozen”, they are also not “as they should… be between neighbors”, being marked by frequent acerbic remarks.
Amid recent mass protests in Serbia, Vucic accused Zagreb of organizing a “color revolution.”
Furthermore, “relations with Montenegro are disrupted and problems with Bosnia and Herzegovina remain unresolved,” he said.
Stabilize the region
Croatia is the thorniest case, Popov suggested, pointing out that relations have deteriorated as the SNS has clashed with Croatia’s ruling Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ), which hails from a similar nationalist-populist tendency.
“Zagreb was shooting a poisoned arrow at Serbia and that gave Belgrade an argument to retaliate,” he said, describing a system that “worked on producing internal and external enemies.”
Meanwhile, behind the public hostility lies a quiet convergence on Bosnia-Herzegovina, he argued, with Belgrade backing Republika Srpska leader Milorad Dodik and Zagreb favoring a third entity.
He expressed hope that a new Serbian government led by experts and civic leaders would work to stabilize the region and revive Serbia’s hopes of joining the European Union.
“The previous government sabotaged European integration and the EU will not accept a country without good neighborly relations. The task of the new government will be to repair these damaged ties,” Popov said.
Russia and Ukraine
Beyond the immediate neighborhood, world powers are closely monitoring Belgrade.
Under Vucic, Serbia maintained a delicate balance, refusing to impose sanctions on Russia despite strong pressure from the EU, while simultaneously allowing the indirect flow of munitions to Ukraine.
Of all the elements of Serbian public policy, foreign policy will be the one that will transform the least during the next government changes, Vuk Vuksanovic, professor of foreign policy at King’s College London, predicted to Al Jazeera.
“Many international and domestic structures that shape Serbian foreign policy will remain in place,” he said, adding that Moscow never fully trusted Vucic, but instead saw him as “the devil they knew.”
Russian influence will take a big hit, with an end to uncritical glorification of Moscow in Vucic-controlled tabloids and a deterioration in cooperation between media and intelligence services, he said, but the new government is unlikely to adopt a hawkish stance overnight.
Serbian interests can continue to be served by ties with Russia, he said. “The country still needs preferential prices for gas, the conflict in Kosovo is still not resolved and part of the public remains disappointed with the West.”
“The new Serbian government will not see the point in joining EU sanctions or adopting a hawkish stance towards Moscow,” Vuksanovic continued.
“As for Ukraine, Serbia will maintain its policy of non-recognition of the annexation of Crimea and Donbass. However, a question mark remains regarding munitions deliveries, as the opposition views Vucic’s arms sales to kyiv as a cynical ploy to buy Western tolerance for its domestic power.”
Ties with Israel
Another essential dimension of Serbia’s foreign relations concerns its close relations with Israel. Under Vucic, Serbia has established a strong partnership with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government, marked by arms trade and technology exchanges.
Bosko Jaksic, a foreign policy analyst, told Al Jazeera that while ties will not be severed, recent controversial deals will come under scrutiny.
“The new government has no reason to abandon cooperation with Israel, but it will certainly review the recently concluded contracts – mainly those regarding Serbian munitions exports to Israel and Israeli surveillance equipment exports to Serbia,” Jaksic said.
The analyst also noted that Netanyahu’s government lost another “authoritarian and nationalist ally” in Europe following the ouster of Viktor Orban in Hungary earlier this year. However, Serbia’s future position will also depend on political developments in Jerusalem.
“How Israel positions itself vis-à-vis the new authorities in Belgrade depends largely on the outcome of the Israeli elections,” Jaksic added.
Several chairs
Regarding the broader geopolitical alignment, he stressed that Serbia’s foreign policy will inevitably be revised.
He suggested that “the policy of ‘sitting on several chairs’, which has done more harm than good to Serbia, will certainly be re-evaluated” and that it is realistic to expect Belgrade to strengthen its ties with the EU.
But as Serbia enters a new political era, the international community should expect a period of intense internal reforms rather than sudden geopolitical realignments, all analysts agree.
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