Updated November 7, 2026, 11:34 a.m. ET
Despite what the calendar says, widespread cold weather still appears far away as the country is expected to experience one of the warmest Novembers on record, thanks mainly to the global warming impacts of El Niño, forecasters said.
“The ongoing El Niño remains the dominant factor influencing these forecasts (for November),” Johnna Infanti, a forecaster with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center, said in an online report.
Chad Merrill, AccuWeather’s senior meteorologist, told USA TODAY that “a very warm month is expected nationally.” It will probably rank in the top 10 warmest Novembers.”
Where are above average temperatures expected in November?
The Climate Prediction Center’s temperature forecast map (above) is orange for almost the entire country, meaning above-average temperatures are likely almost coast to coast.
On the map, only the southwest should not experience temperatures above normal. In the South West, there is an “equal chance” of experiencing warmer or colder temperatures than average.
No region in the United States is expected to experience below average temperatures this month.
Specifically, Merrill told USA TODAY that “northern California, the Northwest, the northern Plains, the Mississippi Valley and the East will be warmer than the historical temperature average.”
Which regions are expected to see above-average precipitation in November?
According to the Climate Prediction Center map, the wettest regions of the country in November will be the southwest and the central and northern plains.
The only states expected to experience a drier than average November are Michigan and Montana, according to the CPC map.
AccuWeather also said Southern California coastal flooding remains a concern: Coastal flooding is expected to continue through November, with some of the highest coastal water levels of the season expected around November 25, AccuWeather said.
Are there any major storms in the forecast?
“Our long-term team expects at least one significant storm to bring heavy snow to the Mountain West and heavy rain that will trigger flooding in the West, particularly in California, the Great Basin and the Southwest,” Merrill said.
In the East, Merrill said there would likely be a storm heading into Thanksgiving week, bringing heavy rain to the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic states.
Thanksgiving weekend could provide a taste of winter, AccuWeather said. Colder air could bring flurries or snow to parts of the Great Lakes and Northeast.
What is causing this slight trend across much of the country?
“A highly energetic Pacific jet stream, triggered by both strong El Niño and marine heatwaves in the Pacific, is flooding much of the United States with warmer-than-average temperatures in November,” Merrill told USA TODAY.
Looking ahead to December and beyond, the heat is expected to continue as El Niño tends to make winters warmer across the United States, particularly in the northern half of the country. This is due to unusually warm water temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean, which shift the jet stream and make prolonged invasions of cold air from the Arctic less likely.
Doyle Rice is a national correspondent for USA TODAY, specializing in weather and climate.
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