On the Week 5 edition of “Thursday Night Football,” the Dallas Cowboys host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Dallas bounced back last week from its heartbreaking loss to the Baltimore Ravens in Rio de Janeiro the previous week, coming back from a double-digit deficit to defeat the Houston Texans with a furious fourth-quarter rally. The Cowboys have arguably the best offense in the NFL through the first four weeks of the season, and that could get a boost here with the potential return of guard Tyler Smith. But the Cowboys also have arguably the worst defense in the league, and that unit is still dealing with various injuries even after trading for Joey Porter Jr.
Tampa is coming off a disheartening loss to the Green Bay Packers in the first game of the Jalon Daniels era. The Buccaneers turned to Daniels following Baker Mayfield’s thumb injury, and the offense faltered in his first game under center, totaling just 275 yards while Daniels was intercepted twice. The Bucs are now 0-4 after this loss and are already in danger of dropping out of the playoffs altogether just a month into the NFL season.
Will Dallas get over .500 for the first time, or will Tampa get its first win of the season? We’ll know soon enough. Before we break down the match, here’s a look at how you can watch the match.
Where to watch Cowboys vs. Buccaneers live
- Date: Thursday October 8 | Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
- Location: AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
- Streaming: Amazon Prime
- Follow: CBS Sports app
- Odds: Cowboys -8.5, O/U 47.5 via DraftKings Sportsbook
When the Buccaneers have the ball
The Bucs were pretty heavy against the Packers in Daniels’ first start, with the undrafted rookie throwing 27 passes while the team totaled 31 rushing attempts despite trailing for most of the afternoon. Daniels went 19 of 27 for just 148 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions, while rushing eight times for 55 yards. Six of those runs were from scrimmages, and he totaled 46 yards on those plays.
The Cowboys have faced mobile quarterbacks three times this year and given up a ton of rushing yards to them. Jaxson Dart ran 11 times for 54 yards, Jayden Daniels ran for 69 yards on seven carries in just one half and Lamar Jackson ran six times for 50 yards.
Dallas doesn’t have a strong pass rush to begin with (the Cowboys are 21st in pressure rate and 29th in sack rate), and the Cowboys have also allowed the highest scrimmage rate in the NFL while giving up 9.1 yards per scrimmage, according to Tru Media. Daniels, if he can maintain his composure when pressured (and he was pressured on 42.9 percent of his stepbacks last week), should have opportunities to take off.
Surprisingly, Tampa’s offensive line hasn’t played very well this year. The Buccaneers rank 22nd in ESPN’s block win rate and 23rd in block win rate. The team’s running backs (mainly Bucky Irving) averaged just 1.07 yards before contact per attempt, indicating that the line isn’t getting much of a push up front. This is despite finding themselves in boxes of eight players, at the second lowest rate in football.
The Cowboys, of course, were clocked on the ground, giving up 4.8 yards per carry to enemy backs. They record 24th in yards before contact per attempt and 25th in yards after contact, according to Tru Media. Irving should have room to run here if the Bucs can get their line in order.
The questions for Tampa’s offense focus on the passing game, where it’s unclear whether Daniels can run a competent offense. The Cowboys have lit up through the air so far this season. Porter should help on that front, and he can probably follow Emeka Egbuka around the formation here and force Daniels to work the passing game through his other targets, but Dallas’ secondary outside of him is eminently burnable right now.
Daniels didn’t look like a player who could push the ball downfield with any degree of consistency against a mediocre Green Bay defense, and questions remain about whether he’ll be able to do that even against this decrepit Cowboys unit.
When the Cowboys have the ball
So far this season, the Cowboys have an offense that is not only one of the best in the league, but one of the best in recent memory. Consider this: Dallas has run the fewest drives of any NFL team (36), but still ranks tied for second in points (122), just five behind the league leader (the Buffalo Bills at 127).
That’s because the Cowboys have been historically efficient, averaging 3.39 points per drive. According to Tru Media, that makes it the sixth-most efficient offense through four weeks since the 2000 season. (The season-long points per drive record during that span was just 3.19 by the 2007 Patriots.) When Dak Prescott called this unit the greatest offense there is during the preseason, it’s possible he wasn’t lying.
It’s also Prescott himself who’s doing the lion’s share of the work, as the running game hasn’t really caught on yet. Javonte Williams has five rushing touchdowns, but he’s averaged just 3.7 yards per carry and gained more than five yards on his carries at the fifth-lowest rate among 26 backs with at least 50 carries so far this season, according to Tru Media. Rather than Williams getting consistent gains, it was simply Prescott methodically working the ball down the field with short and intermediate passes, then occasionally hitting defenses over the top with a shot to CeeDee Lamb or, more occasionally, George Pickens.
Tampa’s defense has done a great job stopping the run (opponents have averaged 3.2 yards per carry, the second-worst mark in the NFL), largely because that’s what Todd Bowles tends to focus on. Those efforts were successful, but the Bucs had a little less success against the pass, and they’ll be shorthanded here thanks to the absence of Antoine Winfield Jr. They’ll get Rueben Bain Jr. back to help with the pass here; he hasn’t been particularly effective so far, but Terence Steele has been friendly toward opposing linemen rushing the left side of the defensive line, so it’s possible he could start Thursday night.
The Bucs probably don’t have anyone who can guard Lamb, mainly because it seems like no one can actually guard Lamb when he’s healthy. It’s easy to forget what he did the last time he was at full strength and had Prescott for a full season: He was first-team All-Pro and totaled 135 catches for 1,749 yards and 12 touchdowns. He leads the league in receptions (37) and yards (498) so far this year.
Pickens, by comparison, hasn’t really made an impact yet, but that will likely happen soon enough given that defenses will likely start paying even more attention to Lamb. Pickens could have a significant size advantage against Tampa’s corners on Thursday, and this could be the game where he breaks away.
Prediction
Dallas’ offense is too much for Tampa — or anyone else — to handle. Maybe if the Buccaneers still had Mayfield under center they could win a shootout, but even the version of Mayfield that was there to start this season would have made that pretty unlikely. I suppose it’s possible the Bucs can flex their muscles and claw their way to a win, but given the way the offensive line has started the season, I don’t see that happening in this one. Pick: Cowboys 34, Buccaneers 17
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