Shawn Krest
• Betting analyst
More than 20 years of experience in betting
Updated: October 5, 2026, 2:13 p.m. ET
• 4 minutes of reading
Our MLB expert sees value in the underdogs today against the Guardians.
Photo by – Reuters Connect. White Sox vs. Keepers.
The Chicago White Sox can put the Cleveland Guardians on the brink of elimination when these two meet again at Progressive Field in Cleveland, Ohio.
My White Sox vs. Guardians Prediction That’s exactly what Chicago will do.
For more MLB picks, check out our White Sox vs. Guardians prop picks before the 5 p.m. ET start on TBS.
BEST CHOICE
White Sox vs. Guardians prediction: White Sox moneyline
To help you understand the odds, check out our odds calculator.
That odds are a steal for a Chicago White Sox team that finished a game behind the Cleveland Guardians in the standings and eliminated them in Game 1 of the ALDS. I’ll stick with the Sox as long as they’re dogs. play at 49%.
On paper, the pitching matchup favors Cleveland right-hander Gavin Williams. The AL strikeout leader and 14-game winner is one of the Guardians’ co-aces, but he will face the playoff cliché of rust versus rest.
Cleveland received a first-round bye, meaning he hasn’t pitched since September 25. Williams had a 5.03 ERA when given an extra day – or more – of rest this season, and opponents had a 62-point higher OPS when Williams had more than 6 days off instead of five.
Chicago will take advantage of an extra day off in the series on Sunday to field another opener and another loose reliever, which held the Guardians to three hits in Game 1. Left-hander Anthony Kay will receive the ball first, followed by Sean Burke, who had a 1.04 ERA in 17 innings against Cleveland this year.
Our MLB expert picks are all over the White Sox as well.
INTEL COVERS: Williams’ struggles with extra rest are no accident. For his career, he has a 5.15 ERA and 1.319 WHIP on 6+ days rest compared to 3.39 and 1.229 on five, 3.22 and 1.182 on four. Opponents reach 20 points higher with 50+ points in WHIP when he has had more time between starts.Do you like the content of the covers? Add us as a favorite source on your Google account 
White Sox vs. Keepers Combo
Both teams should be happy with their launch plan, but that has already been taken into account. The Over/Under is extremely low at 6.5. Chicago has scored 8.0 points or more in eight of its last 10 games, going over seven times.
As good as Burke has been against the Guardians this season, Kay has been even better. The White Sox’ opener had a 1.35 ERA and sub-1.00 WHIP against Cleveland this year, holding the Guardians to a .171 average and a 44 OPS+. So, even though the points will eventually be plated, the first inning will not bear fruit.
White Sox vs. Keepers Combo
- White Sox Money Line
- More than 6.5
- No points in the first round
White Sox vs. Guardians Home Run Prediction: Munetaka Murakami
Munetaka Murakami homered with two hits in Game 1, and he’s already pushed Williams deep this season.
He had a 151 OPS+ against Cleveland, and he was red hot down the stretch and into the playoffs. He has a 207 OPS+ and 1.099 OPS with three homers over the past week, and 148 and .891 over the past two weeks.
Williams allowed 1.18 home runs per nine innings when pitching on four or five days’ rest, compared to 2.06 on long rest.
Our MLB home run props also envision Murakami going deep.
White Sox Player Prop vs. Guardians: Gavin Williams over 7.5 strikeouts
He might have a little rust, but that should instead add some heat to Williams’ fastball.
The right-hander actually strikes out more batters on long rest, at 12.6 per nine innings. He’s also a much better strikeout pitcher at home, with a full K per nine innings, and he’s fanned batters at a rate of 14 per nine innings over the past month and 14.5 per nine since the All-Star break.
He has eight double-digit strikeouts in his last 14 starts.
White Sox and Keepers Weather
It will be windy but clear for the late afternoon departure in Cleveland. Winds will reach 16 mph the day before the first pitch, but could still gust, causing additional drama. Temperatures will be in the 60s, dropping into the 50s as the game progresses.
White Sox vs. Guardians odds
- Money line: White Sox 42% | Goalkeepers 59%
- racing line: White Sox +1.5 (62%) | Goalkeepers -1.5 (39%)
- More/Less: Over 6.5 (53%) | Less than 6.5 (48%)
White Sox vs. Guardians Trend
The White Sox have reached the team total Over in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.90 units / 36% ROI). Check out more MLB betting trends for the White Sox vs. Guardians.
How to watch the White Sox vs. Guardians and game information
| Location | Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH |
| Date | Monday October 5, 2026 |
| First throw | 5 p.m. ET |
| TV | TBS |
| White Sox starting pitcher | Anthony Kay (10-9, 4.44 ERA) |
| Starting pitcher for the Guardians | Gavin Williams (14-8, 3.76 ERA) |
Latest White Sox injuries vs. Guardians
Odds are correct at time of publication and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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