The College Football Playoff committee shocked ESPN attendees and much of the public by selecting Notre Dame 11th in its initial ranking published Tuesday evening.
That’s considerably lower than where the Fighting Irish landed in the most recent Associated Press and Coaches polls, which had them at No. 4 and No. 6. Meanwhile, respected predictive analytics models like ESPN’s Football Power Index, FEI and Jeff Sagarin’s College Football Ratings all place the Fighting Irish at No. 1.
In fact, the committee has both the FPI’s top two teams outside of its top 10.
Here’s ESPN’s REIT for now. Their first two are among the top 10 in the CFP ranking. https://t.co/OL5kO56p5L
– RedditCFB (@RedditCFB) November 4, 2026
However, the Buckeyes have two losses and are only one place lower than their position in the last AP poll.
No team has a bigger gap between its AP Poll and CFP Poll rankings than Notre Dame, which fell seven spots lower in the CFP Poll.
CFP rankings compared to AP: +4: BAMA ORE +3: TEX TENN +2: IND UK MISS SC IOWA ARIZ +1: MIZ LSU FLA 0: MIA UGA UTAH HOU -1: OSU -2: BYU TTU WAKE U.S.C. -3: UCLA -5: BOISE -7: ND AP #22 UNM not classified by CFP.
– RedditCFB (@RedditCFB) November 4, 2026
This puts the Fighting Irish in a precarious position. If they lose against No. 1 Miamithey are almost certain to not make the playoffs.
Heading into Week 10, why does Notre Dame have so little margin for error despite a 7-1 record and a level of play that advanced metrics seem to like?
The committee places little value on the seven Irish victories to date.
“Notre Dame, obviously ranked 11th, is impressive,” Hunter Yurachek, chairman of the College Football Playoff committee, told ESPN’s Rece Davis. “The committee is impressed with their performance on both sides of the ball. They’re a very good football team, but when you look at Notre Dame’s schedule and the wins they have against the teams ahead of them, they don’t have that signature win right now. They lost in their only top 25 (game) at BYU.”
It’s not just a lack of ranked wins. So far, only one other team Notre Dame faces is above .500: Wisconsin (5-3).
The Badgers were ranked in the AP poll through Sunday, falling out of the top 25 after a 30-0 loss to Iowa. Yurachek also noted that Notre Dame’s “best win is at a neutral site,” referring to the Fighting Irish’s 41-13 victory over Wisconsin at Lambeau Field.
Otherwise, the Fighting Irish have only faced one other team with a .500 record.
Record of Notre Dame opponents
- Wisconsin (5-3)
- Rice (1-7)
- Michigan State (2-6)
- Purdue (3-5)
- North Carolina (4-4)
- Stanford (4-5)
- BYU (7-1)
- Navy (2-6)
Maybe the Fighting Irish would be in the top five with a few other three-loss teams on the schedule.
Indiana represents another one-loss team with no ranked win or signature win. This defeat occurred in a top 12 team, Ohio State. Still, the Hoosiers are ranked fourth, two spots higher than in the AP poll.
Indiana opponent record
- North Texas (6-2)
- Howard (4-5)
- Western Kentucky (3-5)
- Northwest (6-2)
- Rutgers (2-6)
- Nebraska (5-3)
- Ohio State (6-2)
- Michigan (5-3)
- Nebraska (5-3)
“I think in comparison, Indiana has five or six games against .500-plus teams, and they’re 5-1 in those games,” Yurachek said. “Notre Dame has two games against teams .500 and above. They won one of those games and lost the other of those games. So I think Notre Dame’s entire body of work comes up against a schedule that’s not as strong as Indiana’s.
“Once again, Notre Dame has a great opportunity ahead of them at home against the No. 1 team in our CFP rankings this weekend to earn this signature victory.”
This ignores how well Indiana reformed in each victory.
The Hoosiers’ last three wins against five-win teams came in either overtime (Minnesota And Michigan) or by three points in a late comeback victory (Nebraska).
Previously, victory Northwest came by six points and was a two-point game after the two-minute warning.
North Texas is a Group of Six team that ranks 61st, one place lower than Purdue in the ESPN REIT.
Meanwhile, the Fighting Irish have the best margin of victory in the country at 27.0 points.
That’s not to say Notre Dame should be ranked ahead of the Hoosiers, but the seven-spot difference likely represents several groups of separation and gives Indiana room to lose to No. 20 USC, the only ranked team remaining on its schedule, and still make the playoffs.
Additionally, three SEC teams with two losses are ahead of the Fighting Irish: No. 5 Alabama#7 Texas and No. 10 Ole Mademoiselle.
Ultimately, the committee placed a higher value on their wins, which helped a team like the Crimson Tide place 5th despite two losses to the No. 2 seed. Georgia and No. 13 Tennessee.
“It really depends on the quality of teams Alabama has played and how well they have won,” Yurachek said. “They have a road win against the team. We are ranked sixth. They have a win against South Carolina team that we ranked 21st.
“They have a victory Mississippi State and when Mississippi State was 4-0 and complete with that dynamic quarterback that Mississippi State had earlier in the year, and Alabama played seven of its eight games against teams that have a record of .500 or better. And I think that’s what separated them from an undefeated team at UCLA or a team with just one loss at BYU. »
Notre Dame isn’t the only team complaining about the rankings.
THE Waking up forest the faithful also don’t understand why they are five spots below the Fighting Irish at 7-1 with a competitive loss to No. 1 Miami and a win over a 5-3 Power Four team, Louisville.
The Demon Deacons also beat teams with a winning margin of 21.3 points, the fifth-best mark nationally. This includes a 54-point victory over Stanford and consecutive dominant performances on California (41-7) and Virginia (51-7).
Wake Forest opponent record
- Akron (1-8)
- Purdue (3-5)
- Miami (8-0)
- Louisville (5-3)
- Stanford (4-5)
- North Carolina State (4-4)
- California (3-6)
- Virginia (4-5)
According to the FPI, Wake Forest’s record strength is 11th nationally, slightly higher than Notre Dame at 13th.
So why were the Demon Deacons ranked 16th?
“I think the separation happens in those of us who watch the games and watch Notre Dame play, watch Wake Forest play and compare the two teams,” Yurachek said. “I think the committee feels Notre Dame is a better team than Wake Forest at this point.”
Ultimately, that’s a much more dismissive response than the one Notre Dame received for its No. 11 position. This also demonstrates how the committee always cherry-picks data points or relies on eye-testing whenever appropriate to justify a system that often belies logic.
Yurachek’s job is almost impossible. He answered dozens of questions from last night’s reports, recalled specific data points about each team, and made arguments for a specific ranking, even as he potentially disagreed with them in the room.
On the other hand, Notre Dame has the clarity that athletic director Pete Bevaqua lacked late last season, when the Fighting Irish were knocked out of the playoffs after falling several spots over the final two weeks, capping a dominant double-digit winning streak.
“What makes us so confused and frustrating is the process,” Bevaqua said on the Dan Patrick show last December. “At every step since the first CFP rankings came out, we’ve been led to believe that we’re in the game as long as we take care of business, and we’ve certainly taken care of business with this 10-game winning streak.”
There will be no confusion this time.
The committee’s message on Notre Dame’s path to the playoffs is clear: Beat No. 1 Miami or expect to be offered the Pop-Tarts Bowl again.
“(Notre Dame has) big opportunities ahead of them this weekend at home against Miami to get that signature win that I think they need to move up in the rankings,” Yurachek said. “But the committee is very impressed with them. They wouldn’t be 11 if they weren’t.”
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