Why Trump is campaigning in states that voted for him by double digits

A new Washington Post-ABC News poll conducted over the weekend presented a telling statistic.

Other recent polls have generally shown voters favoring Democrats over Republicans for Congress by nearly 10 points on the all-important “wildcard ballot.”

But when President Donald Trump is invoked — that is, choosing between a Democratic-controlled Congress that could act as a check on Trump, and a Republican-controlled Congress that could enact his agenda — that gap widens. Registered voters preferred the blue side by 19 points58% to 39%, in post-ABC News poll

These numbers clearly show why swing-area Republicans would be reluctant to campaign with Trump — and why he’s reaching such red territory.

With the president’s midterm travels now in full swing, a number of patterns have emerged: 1) he campaigns heavily in red states that voted for him by double digits in 2024, and 2) when he campaigns in more competitive areas, it’s usually for candidates in red states who are struggling — and seem to need to roll the dice for Trump to increase turnout among a dispirited Republican base.

There are exceptions to both, and Trump’s travel schedule is evolving. But it’s a question of form.

Vice President JD Vance has traveled to many of the same places as Trump — sometimes going to more politically difficult areas before the president.

This is a far cry from Trump’s declaration at the midterm Republican convention last month that he would visit the 35 largest swings in the country. NPR calculates that he has visited less than a third of them.

The first model is unmistakable. Trump’s decision to use his limited time before the election to travel to deep red states like Oklahoma, Alabama, Tennessee and Kentucky raised many eyebrows.

But it’s not just about these states. Since the Republican Party’s midterm convention, the 20 or so states Trump has visited or plans to visit this week have voted for him by an average of 14 points.

This list includes as many states that voted for him by a margin of around 30 points (the four states cited above) as presidential states (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan and North Carolina).

Including New York — the only state Trump lost in 2024 that he visited recently — Trump has visited or plans to visit just five states that did not vote for him by double digits.

The candidates who will campaign with him seem to need help

This is not to say that all Republicans in key elections have avoided campaigning with Trump.

But those who appeared with him generally seem to need a boost. Those in better shape and in blue-leaning states haven’t welcomed him or made themselves scarcer when Trump comes, including skipping his rallies.

So far, the two real presidential swing states where Trump has rallied behind Senate hopefuls are Georgia and North Carolina. But in either case, polling and ad spending by both parties suggest those seats will likely be lost to the Republican Party.

The other major Republican Senate candidates who have rallied behind Trump or will rally behind him in the coming days either come from states he won by at least 16 points (Nebraska Sen. Pete Ricketts, South Carolina Sen. Darline Graham, and Kansas Sen. Roger Marshall) or from states that are double-digit Trump’s but have trailed in more quality polls than they have conducted (Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, Ohio Senator Jon Husted and Alaska Senator Dan Sullivan).

Polls in these states are sometimes within the margin of error and lack a clear leader, but Republicans are trailing in some other polls.

There is no sign yet that Trump is campaigning for Senate candidates in blue-leaning states like Maine, Minnesota and New Hampshire. He’ll travel to Iowa and Michigan this week, but we don’t know yet who will attend.

The story is similar in governor’s races.

Nevada Gov. Joe Lombardo and Georgia Republican Party candidate Rick Jackson both campaigned alongside Trump in competitive, high-profile races. Trump will also travel to Florida this week to pick up Rep. Byron Donalds in a red state. (Donalds recently made headlines for removing mentions of Trump from its website.)

But the other gubernatorial candidates who will run alongside Trump are Republicans who sometimes look more like underdogs — in Alaska, Arizona and Ohio. And there is still no sign of Trump campaigning with candidates in Maine, New Hampshire, Oregon and Wisconsin.

And when Trump visited Texas to campaign with Paxton earlier this month, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott — who polled better than Paxton — didn’t show up.

Absences are also a trend. Sometimes when Trump shows up, Republican candidates just don’t.

This was true not only for Abbott, but also for a group of New York Republican officials, including vulnerable Rep. Mike Lawler when Trump visited that state, two key House candidates in Arizona last week, and another Republican House candidate in Kentucky (who, like Donalds, scrubbed his website of mentions of Trump) on Saturday.

And when Vance visited Iowa last month, Republican Senate candidate Ashley Hinson wasn’t there — and Vance barely mentioned the Senate race.

A big question this week is who will show up when Trump visits Iowa on Thursday and Michigan on Sunday.

In Michigan, former Rep. Mike Rogers has gone further than most leading Republican Senate candidates to distance himself from Trump, including recently on Trump’s trade war with Canada. The president’s visit will take place at the Canadian border at Port Huron, which could pose problems for Rogers.

In Iowa, Hinson also sought to distance himself from Trump on issues including the war in Iran, the importation of foreign beef and, most recently, the importation of Russian diesel fuel. And as noted, she skipped the Vance event.

But she’s also from a redder state, and she’s suggested she’d welcome Trump to Iowa — notably when he put her on the spot at an Oval Office event in late September.

This could be a dilemma awaiting other Republicans. What would happen if they preferred that Trump not come, but did it anyway? He made it clear that he didn’t like Republicans giving him the cold shoulder, nor did he like the narrative that he was a liability.

But this new Post/ABC News poll says it all. By showing his face in crucial states and making himself and his agenda the subject of concern, Trump often appears to be doing his party no favors.