October 15, 2026Updated October 16, 2026, 8:13 a.m. ET
Ready for a warmer, wetter winter?
The very strong El Niño is expected to be the main driver of U.S. weather this winter, forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center said Oct. 15 in their annual winter forecast.
So what does this mean for our weather?
Basically, the two main headlines in the winter forecast are unusual warmth in the northern part of the country and lingering storms in the southern part.
“As we know from decades of observations, a very strong El Niño will likely cause the jet stream to shift south and east for the contiguous United States, tipping the scales toward stormier weather conditions in the South,” Ken Graham, director of NOAA’s National Weather Service, said in a statement.
“While higher chances of rain and snow can bring relief to drought-affected areas, too much precipitation on dry soils can fuel flash floods and destructive mudslides. Now is the time for communities and individuals to plan for the winter ahead,” he added.
The center’s forecast covers the months of December 2026, January 2027 and February 2027, known as meteorological winter.
Where will it be colder than normal in winter 2026-2027?
No region of the United States is expected to experience a colder than normal winter. The Deep South and Florida are expected to experience a near-normal winter, in terms of temperatures, while the Southwest has an equal chance of experiencing above or below normal temperatures this winter, the Climate Prediction Center said.
Where will it be warmer than normal in winter 2026-2027?
Much of the northern part of the country is expected to experience a warmer than normal winter. Above normal temperatures are most likely in the Pacific Northwest, Great Lakes states and New England.
Snow forecast unclear, but NOAA predicts precipitation
Overall, the PCC said wetter-than-average conditions are more likely in the southern portion, from southwest to southeast, and along the East Coast.
Only the northern Rockies and northern Great Lakes are expected to experience a drier than normal winter, the PCC said.
The forecast released Oct. 15 only predicts locations where above- or below-normal temperatures and above- or below-normal precipitation are most likely.
This winter forecast does not specify how much precipitation will fall as rain, snow or ice, but it is more or less likely overall. Snow forecasts depend on the strength and path of winter storms, which generally cannot be predicted more than a week in advance, the center said.
And the polar vortex?
According to Jon Gottschalk of NOAA, with the strong El Niño, this tends to cause a stronger and more stable polar vortex. This would promote fewer outbreaks of Arctic air over the United States, he said.
However, he added that cold spells and snowstorms are still possible, just less likely.
Drought Update
Drought conditions are forecast to improve or end in the Southwest, Southern Great Plains, Southeast, and parts of the East Coast.
However, drought conditions are likely to develop or worsen in parts of the northern Rockies, as well as northeastern Oregon and eastern Washington.
What are the other winter forecasts saying?
AccuWeather also released its winter forecast earlier in October, and the private forecaster also predicts that the powerful El Niño will dominate the 2026-27 winter, bringing a wetter and stormier pattern to much of the U.S. South and West, while much of the North experiences a warmer winter with less snow than normal.
Doyle Rice is a national correspondent for USA TODAY, specializing in weather and climate.
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