WR Rankings Downgrades for Week 8 Fantasy Football: Jameson Williams and More

Let’s move on to the Week 8 WR Rankings edition of Freedman’s Fades, where I highlight the guys I’m downgrading because of…

• Unfavorable Betting Factors and Situational Situations
• Disadvantageous defensive matchups (perhaps amplified by offensive injuries)
• Decreased usage expectations (again, perhaps exacerbated by offensive injuries)

For process notes regarding this series, see the end of this article. Also check out the rest of my week 8 favorites and fades.

WR Rankings for Week 8 (Top 36)

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Week 8 game downgrades in my WR rankings: Jameson Williams vs. Vikings and Luther Burden at Seahawks

There are a few “reverse flowchart” defenses that are so effective that they serve as automatic downgrades to the WRs they face. If a guy plays one of these, I aggressively move him down my ranks. Otherwise, I continue.

Based on the numbers I see in our Fantasy Football DvP (Defense vs. Position) matrix as well as RBs Don’t Matter and FTN, the Vikings and Seahawks are two of the biggest reverse flow defenses for WRs.

• Vikings: No. 1 in EPA defensive withdrawal (-0.226)
• sea ​​hawks: No. 1 for smallest fantasy boost allowed to WRs (-5.2)

Here are dragons.

Jameson Williams (Lions) vs. Vikings: After doing little in Weeks 1-3 (5.9 fantasy points per game, 10-127-0 receiving, 17 targets, 55 usage points), Williams has exploded since Week 4 (18.2 fantasy points per game, 13-240-4 receiving, 21 targets, 85 usage points, according to our Fantasy Life usage report). Now, with No. 1 WR Amon-Ra St. Brown (ankle) uncertain to play, Williams could get elite usage, as he did last week (40% air yard share, 67% end zone target share)…but Williams is a boom/bust player, and this is looking like a bust week. The Lions are a -3.5 favorite at home, where over the past five years they have had the league’s No. 2 HFA (+7.69, according to NFElo), and Week 5 was their last time on the road, so their setup is good, but it’s not perfect: the Vikings have reduced their home advantage because they play in the division on a similar turf surface in a similar indoor stadium, and in his two games last year against the Vikings, Williams had only marginal success. (9.7 fantasy points per game, 6-103-1 receiving, 9 targets).

Luther’s Burden (Bears) at Seahawks: Last week was literally the first all season in which I didn’t tout Burden as a fantasy fadeaway…and he turned in his best performance of the year (21.7 fantasy points, 4-130-1 receiving, 4 targets with 1-7-0 rushing). Amazing timing, and here’s the thing: It’s not like his usage is actually special (69% route rate, 14% target share, 18% air yard share, 0% end zone target share, 60 usage score). So I’m not about to take the Burden train, especially since it’s a bad place to travel for the Bears, who are playing their third road game in four weeks. On top of that, the Seahawks are in their fourth game in five weeks at home, where they have an improved HFA due to being out of the division and on turf (vs. turf). The Bears have a three-day advantage after Thursday Night Football, and QB Caleb Williams is generally at his best outside of the division (18-7-1 ATS, 37.3% ROI, per Action Network), so the setup isn’t great, but everything about it, especially the game, makes me want to ease the burden again. I don’t think I would feel comfortable starting Burden in Guillotine LeaguesTM this week.

Score degrades in my WR rankings for Week 8: Tre Tucker to Jets and Drake London to Buccaneers

Sometimes downgrades are as simple as: “This team isn’t going to score as many points as they usually do, so I need to cut the WRs.” »

This week, the Raiders are No. 16 in team implied total (22.25) and the Falcons are No. 17 (21.75).

Justified downgrades.

Tre Tucker (Raiders) at Jets: Tucker has been a destroyer of worlds over the past two weeks (21.5 fantasy points per game, 10-200-3 receiving, 19 targets), but it’s not like his underlying usage in these games is remarkable (23% target share, 29% air yard share, 25% end zone target share), which fits Tucker’s nature as a player…he’s a real dealmaker expansion/recession. This year, he has three games with over 18.5 fantasy points and four games with under 6.5. For Tucker, the default assumption should almost always be a tough week, and the setup for the Raiders is not good: They travel across the country for an early 1 p.m. ET kickoff, and the Jets have an improved HFA against them because they are out of the division and on turf (vs. turf) and away (vs. indoor).

Drake London (Falcons) at Buccaneers: In his five games with QB Michael Penix this year, London has had production (15.5 fantasy points per game, 32-536-1 receiving, 47 targets) and usage (98% route rate, 33% target share, 47% air yard share, 86 usage score). This week, however, I’m practicing pessimism. The Bucs could be without FS Antoine Winfield (ribs), but they are No. 2 for smallest fantasy boost allowed to WRs (-4.9), and this is their fifth home game in seven weeks. Division road dogs tend to be sharp (752-641-37 ATS, 4.8% ROI), but HC Kevin Stefanski has been terrible on the road throughout his career (21-33 ATS, -25.0% ROI).

Week 8 situation deteriorations in my WR rankings: Tetairoa McMillan at Packers and Xavier Worthy at Broncos

In general, I want to avoid WRs playing in poor weather conditions, in ballparks with reduced upside, or in notable bad situations.

Here are two of those WRs that stand out.

Tetairoa McMillan (Panthers) at Packers: No. 2 WR Jalen Coker (shoulder) practiced fully on Tuesday, so McMillan is unlikely to experience an injury-related increase in production on Thursday Night Football, and he could have used that boost, as he’s done little since the Week 5 bye (8.8 fantasy points per game, 10-126-0 receiving, 15 targets, 66 usage rating). Plus, the matchup and setup sucks: the Packers are #4 in defensive pass DVOA (-11.8%), and they’re playing their third game in four weeks at home, where they have an improved HFA because the Panthers are out of the division and on turf (vs. turf). In his only game last year against the Packers, he was disappointing (6.6 fantasy points, 4-46-0 receiving, 6 targets). Additionally, LG Damien Lewis (knee) is doubtful and RT Taylor Moton (leg, IR) is out.

Xavier Digne (Chiefs) at Broncos: It could be argued that Worthy should actually be a fantasy favorite this week, given that #1 WR Rashee Rice (hamstring) is questionable, as are #1 CB Patrick Surtain (ankle) and SS Talanoa Hufanga (ankle). But Worthy has done little of note since Rice’s exit in Week 4 (7.5 fantasy points per game, 14-154-0 receiving, 20 targets, 62 points usage), and this is the second straight road game for the Chiefs, who could be without RT Jaylon Moore (concussion) in addition to LT Josh Simmons (back, IR). Although the Broncos are third in the league over the last five years (+6.87), the Chiefs have significantly reduced that advantage as they play in the division on a similar turf surface in a similar outdoor stadium. But the matchup is tough: the Broncos are No. 4 in EPA defensive passing (-0.051), and in his two games last year against them, Worthy was terrible (2.0 fantasy points per game, 3-25-0 receiving, 8 targets with 1-1-0 rushing).

Remarks

Week 8 Favorites and Faves: Here is the complete series.

Bye: This week, the 49ers, Saints, Giants and Texans are off.

Market Quotes: From Tuesday afternoon.

Injuries: Since writing Freedman’s Favorites Monday and Tuesday, I have incomplete injury information. After submitting this article, all of my updated thoughts regarding injuries will show up in my rankings. For our brief fantasy musings each day, subscribe to the Fantasy Life newsletter.

Calendar: This season I have the following ranking schedule.

• Tuesday morning: publish
• AM Game: Refresh
• Thu. PM: Make the necessary modifications to the TNF
• Sat PM: update
• Sun AM: Review
• Sun PM: finalize based on news before kickoff at 1 p.m. ET

Precision: I’m a seven-time top-20 player in accuracy and a long-time profitable players’ prop bettor.

Rating: All fantasy points are half PPR unless otherwise noted.

Abbreviations: Here are some abbreviations I could have used in the piece.

• Against the spread (ATS)
• More/Less (Y/U)
• Return on investment (ROI)
• Adjusted Yards Per Attempt (AY/A)
• Expected Points Added (EPA)
• Success rate (SR)
• Defense Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
• Weighted Opportunity Assessment (WOPR)
• Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
• Home Field Advantage (HFA)