3 takeaways from our new survey of Latino voters: from the political office

Welcome to From the political officea daily newsletter bringing you the latest reporting and analysis from the NBC News Politics team from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.

In today’s edition, Scott Bland breaks down the key numbers to know from our new national poll of the Latino electorate. Plus, Sahil Kapur delves into Democrats’ continuing divisions on transgender issues.

—Adam Wollner

3 takeaways from our new survey of Latino voters

Analysis by Scott Bland

Latino voters turn to the president Donald Trump was one of the defining trends of the 2024 elections. Their rollback could also define the 2026 midterm elections.

That’s the takeaway from the NBC News/Telemundo poll released Sunday, which showed Democrats with a 24-point lead among Latino registered voters in a 2026 runoff. It’s a double-digit turnaround from the 2024 edition of the survey — and it comes after Republicans in Florida and Texas made big redistricting bets on extending the results of the poll. party in the last elections.

Here are three big takeaways from these numbers:

The economy is the driving factor. Immigration and border security are still important to many Latino voters, but their main issue is the cost of living, and Trump’s failure to deliver on his campaign promise to lower prices is stinging his party. Latino voters gave Trump a 4 percentage point advantage over Kamala Harris in 2024 on who they think would do a better job managing the economy. Today, they give Democrats a 21-point advantage on the same issue.

That’s a key reason why nearly a quarter (22%) of Latino Trump voters said they don’t plan to support Republicans in the midterms, with 14% choosing Democrats and 8% undecided in that group.

Visceral feelings about immigration. Again, this is not a primary issue when voters have to rank them, but Latino voters have very strong feelings about Trump’s immigration agenda. Two-thirds say its enforcement policies have gone too far. Only 39% approve of his handling of border security and 30% approve of immigration in general.

Meanwhile, 31% of Latino voters say they or someone close to them started carrying an ID because they feared being swept up by ICE enforcement operations, and 27% say they know someone who has been deported or detained by ICE since the start of Trump’s second term.

There were key differences by gender, region and more. Like the electorate as a whole, Latino women are more Democratic than Latino men. And even though the sample was small, Latino voters in Florida were less likely to support Democrats than Latino voters elsewhere — something to keep in mind on election night, when it would be unwise to expect uniform fluctuations from 2024 onwards across regions.

➡️ Related reading: How a Houston father’s shooting death ignites Latino politics in Texas, by Natasha Korecki

Democrats in Trump’s district take blame for human rights campaign over trans rhetoric

By Sahil Kapur

The nation’s largest LGBTQ rights group is criticizing some Democrats for adopting what they see as anti-transgender rhetoric in their campaigns, a point of tension as the party grapples with how to handle the issue heading into the 2026 election.

They understand the representative. Marcy KapturD-Ohio, who said in a recent ad, “I voted with Republicans to keep transgender ideology out of our schools because parents know what is best for their children and boys should not participate in girls’ sports.” »

They also include the representative. Don DavisDN.C., who is also running in a red-leaning district that Donald Trump worn during the last elections. In a recent ad, Davis cited a North Carolina law that prohibits trans women and girls from playing on women’s sports teams, saying there are “real concerns about fairness and safety” for “women and girls in sports.”

President of the Human Rights Campaign Kelly Robinson told reporters today that these candidates are “doing too much and not achieving enough” with their strategies.

“You don’t need to sacrifice a member of our community to win these races, to have a message that resonates with voters,” Robinson said at a breakfast in Washington.

“You have Marcy Kaptur, who not only is bad on message, but she’s also bad on policy. I mean, she voted for a bill that would have implemented nationwide forced outings. A bill banning trans people too, right? She’s someone who hasn’t been with us on either side, so she’s not someone we support in this cycle,” Robinson said.

Meanwhile, Robinson praised the former senator. Sherrod Browna Democrat running again for the Ohio Senate. Brown sought to reframe the debate, featuring a voter in an ad who says, “With everything going on, It is what are they talking about?

“Sherrod Brown, on the other hand, I think, did a great job in his response that we worked closely with him on – stating what the current laws are in Ohio and reaffirming his community support and then, more importantly, letting the voters speak for themselves,” Robinson said.

Faced with criticism, Kaptur campaign spokesperson Kylie Blitzer said in a statement: “Marcy set the record straight for voters in Northwest Ohio on her position: giving parents more say in the classroom and ensuring that parents, coaches and local athletic associations – not politicians in Washington – set the rules in their communities to ensure girls’ sports remain fair. She is focused on cutting costs and advocating for special interests by using their big money and outsized influence to tip the scales in their favor. “

A spokesperson for Davis did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Meanwhile, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has not advised 2026 candidates to take a particular approach on trans issues, according to a person familiar with the committee’s thinking, who said it “supports every candidate messaging as they see fit” in their district while simply encouraging them to “explain to voters where they stand.”

Where the Human Rights Campaign and the Democrats they criticize agree that the Republican Party’s attacks are effective if left unanswered. But they disagree on how to answer it.

Robinson argued that the “fundamental failure” of Democrats and Kamala Harris in 2024, it was “the absence of a direct response”. She said of 2026: “We’ve given advice and guidance that’s really very clear. Tackle it head on, orient yourself towards your values ​​- the things you want voters to know.”

A Democratic strategist involved in the 2026 election said it’s a school of thought that can be effective in testing messages. Another school of thought, according to the strategist, is to confront the attacks head-on and distance yourself from the issue so as to “not sound like a typical Democrat.”

The latter approach “works better as your district gets redder,” said the strategist, who was not authorized to discuss internal machinations on the record.

That’s all that’s coming from the politburo for now. Today’s newsletter was written by Adam Wollner.

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