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Michigan voters are worried about both candidates in the U.S. Senate race, leading to a close contest, according to a new Fox News poll.
Democrat Abdul El-Sayed has a slight one-point advantage over Republican Mike Rogers, 50 to 49 percent, among likely Michigan voters. The survey, released Wednesday, is the first Fox News poll this season among likely voters, so a direct comparison cannot be made with previous polls.
Yet among registered voters, the preference is almost identical, 51% for El-Sayed to 48% for Rogers. This is a reversal from August, when Rogers was ahead by 4 points among registered voters, 51% to El-Sayed’s 47%.
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The analysis below focuses on likely voters unless otherwise noted.
More supporters of El-Sayed feel certain of their choice (87%) than those of Rogers (80%). Overall, 15% say they might change their choice before voting, including 18% of Rogers supporters and 12% of El-Sayed supporters.
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Here’s why the race is close.
Roughly equal numbers of Michiganders say they are extremely concerned that Rogers is too close to President Donald Trump (39%) and say El-Sayed’s views are too liberal (36%).
And their favorable ratings are also close: 47% view El-Sayed positively, compared to 44% for Rogers. Among registered voters, positive opinions of El-Sayed increased by 5 points since August, while those of Rogers decreased by four points.
El-Sayed’s top groups include those who are traditionally Democratic: women, black voters and those with college degrees. He also leads among voters under 45 and the small subgroup of union households.
The groups that give Rogers some of his strongest support include men, rural voters, white evangelical Christians, married voters and whites without a college degree.
Both candidates enjoy near-universal support from their parties. Rogers gets 95% among Republicans, while El-Sayed gets 93% among Democrats. Additionally, Rogers gets 99% of MAGA Republicans and 88% of non-MAGA Republicans, while El-Sayed gets 98% of DSA Democrats and 90% of non-DSA Democrats. The small number of independents narrowly favors El-Sayed.
This year’s political landscape favors El-Sayed. Democrats hold a 5-point advantage when voters are asked which party they want to control the Senate, 52% to 47%. But to capitalize on that, he’ll need to shore up Democratic support after a contentious primary, as 11 percent of likely voters who supported his primary opponent, Haley Stevens, say they plan to vote for Rogers.
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“The Michigan Senate race is unique in that the short-term political forces favoring Democrats are somewhat offset by concerns about the Democratic nominee,” said Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who is conducting the Fox News poll with Democrat Chris Anderson.
“The bad news for Rogers is that El-Sayed has made progress in building support for Democrats and still has room to grow given voters’ concerns about the economy.”
Four in ten Michiganders say they are behind financially and support El-Sayed by 25 points. But the largest share, nearly half, describe their family as stable and favor Rogers by 13 points, while the small number ahead prefer Rogers by 36 points.
Yet for 7 in 10 voters, cost of living will be extremely important to their Senate vote, and they support El-Sayed by 13 points. It also has advantages among the 4 in 10 respondents who focus on U.S. policy toward Israel (+8 points) and AI technology (+17 points). Conversely, Rogers is favored by 26 points among the 44% focused on immigration.
Half of Michigan voters consider Trump extremely important to their Senate vote and favor El-Sayed by 22 points.
In 2024, Trump won Michigan by less than two percentage points, while Rogers lost to Democrat Elissa Slotkin by less than half a point.
Voter frustration with the administration is a drag on Rogers, with nearly six in ten disapproving of the president’s performance. Although 40% approve, not all support Rogers (93%). He remains competitive with the support of 19% of people who disapprove of Trump overall, although 28% who only “somewhat” disapprove of Trump prefer El-Sayed.
In the gubernatorial race to replace term-limited Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, Democrat Jocelyn Benson leads Republican John James 54% to 45% among likely voters.
Twelve percent of those supporting Rogers in the Senate fall across all partisan lines to favor Benson.
Conducted September 24-28, 2026, under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News poll includes interviews with a sample of 1,203 registered voters in Michigan, randomly selected from a statewide voter file. Respondents spoke with live interviewers on landlines (114) and cell phones (794) or completed the survey online after receiving a text message (295). Results based on the sample of registered voters have a margin of sampling error of ±2.5 percentage points and for the subsample of 1,028 likely voters it is ±3 percentage points.
Sampling error for results among subgroups is higher. In addition to sampling error, the wording and order of questions can influence the results. Sources for developing target weights include the most recent American Community Survey, Fox News Voter Analysis and voter file data. Weights are typically applied to the age, race, education, and region variables to ensure that respondent demographics are representative of the registered voter population. Likely Voters are based on a probabilistic statistical model that draws on past voting history, interest in the current election, intent to vote, age, education, race, ethnicity, and marital status. Results among subgroups are only shown when the sample size is at least N=100.
Fox News’ Victoria Balara contributed to this report.
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