Analysis of the Trump-Xi summit: “tangible results” are necessary for the truce to hold

BEIJING — In a summit dominated by spectacle, the United States and China essentially agreed to continue talking.

President Donald Trump hosted Chinese President Xi Jinping in Washington, D.C., last Wednesday through Friday, as part of Xi’s second state visit since 2015. Trump personally welcomed Xi at the airport in a very rare gesture, and more than 100 people, mostly from the U.S. government and businesses, attended a state dinner for Xi.

But there has been little progress, including an extension of the trade truce by two months, much shorter than expected.

“I’m concerned that this type of diplomacy and this fragile détente is really not sustainable – if it doesn’t lead to more tangible results or somehow address the strategic challenges that are clearly evident across the entire relationship, from the strategic relationship to the economy,” Daniel Kritenbrink, a partner at consultancy The Asia Group, said Monday on CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia.”

Statements from the two countries following the summit agreed on only a handful of points.

Peter Alexander, managing director of Shanghai-based Z-ben Advisors, said he was surprised that the two sides had issued separate rather than joint statements.

This means that “both sides are truly engaged in a battle over where escalation dominance lies in the relationship,” Alexander said in a note Monday. He expected Xi would not visit the United States unless a joint statement was agreed in advance.

Here are the main areas where the United States and China sent similar messages, according to their results released this weekend:

First, both Trump and Xi intend to attend the APEC meeting in Shenzhen in November and the G20 summit in Miami in December.

Second, the two countries agreed to hold a dialogue on AI over the next two months and establish a communication channel for AI-related incidents. But while the United States used the term “Super Intelligence”, China still referred to this technology as AI in its report.

Third, both readings emphasize that the United States and China were allies during World War II and “fought side by side to win the war.”

During the summit, the two presidents each referred to this cooperation with Japan.

In welcoming Xi to the White House, Trump referenced the Flying Tigers, a group of American pilots who fought the Japanese in Myanmar and China in the early 1940s.

Xi’s toast to Trump was more specific: “More than 80 years ago, the Chinese and American people stood side by side in the fight against the Japanese militarist aggressors. »

Analysts from the United States and China pointed out that the historical benchmark also signals broader efforts at cooperation between the two countries.

But a Chinese social media account called “Chairman Rabbit,” long seen as having insight into Beijing’s thinking, directly linked comments about World War II to Japan.

“If we had to say who is the biggest loser from this Sino-American summit in Washington, it would be the government of Sanae Takaichi,” the newspaper wrote in an article on Saturday. That’s according to a CNBC translation from Chinese.

Nearly a year ago, Takaichi angered Beijing by indicating that an attempt to seize Taiwan by force could prompt the Japanese Self-Defense Forces to intervene. Beijing considers the independent and autonomous island to be part of its territory. In the latest meeting with Trump, Xi urged the United States to oppose “Taiwan independence.”

Fourth, the U.S. and Chinese presidents signaled some alignment on limiting Iran’s nuclear capabilities and agreed that “no country or institution can be allowed to impose tolls on international waterways.”

Fifth, the two countries formalized the Board of Trade and Board of Investment plans and agreed to reduce tariffs on $30 billion of goods from each other.

China’s Commerce Ministry said Monday that figure would include Chinese coal imports from the United States, and noted plans for purchases in 2027 and 2028, without specifying an amount. The American report indicates that each year, China imports at least 10 million tonnes of coal.

The two countries also announced they would establish a working group to discuss agricultural trade, with China’s Ministry of Commerce specifying that sectoral negotiations would begin before the end of 2026.

Companies will now monitor the speed of implementation.

“Despite the red carpet treatment and outpouring from Trump and Xi, the fact sheets from both sides suggest how distrustful each is of the other,” said Scott Kennedy, senior adviser and board chair for Chinese business and economics at the U.S.-based think tank the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

“The results on trade, rare earths, refined oil, investment and AI are all quite limited and tentative,” he said. “Although Taiwan was discussed, it did not find its way into the official communiqué from both sides, suggesting that there is no progress.”

China’s Commerce Ministry statement on Monday also referred to plans to increase flights between the two countries and open the financial sector to businesses from all countries, but did not give details.

Zoo Atlanta announced the arrival of two giant pandas from China on Sunday, just days after Xi announced Beijing would send the bears.