Every NFL season will bring a few surprises, and this year is no exception. We’re expecting a few more in Week 4.
The Rams, who were considered a superteam heading into the year, are 1-2, Drake Maye leads the NFL in interceptions after being a finalist for MVP last year, and the Raiders are one of the NFL’s remaining undefeated teams at 3-0. If you had told anyone about any of these results this summer, they probably would have laughed in your face. That’s what’s crazy about the NFL and why it’s ingrained into the social fabric of the country; It’s so unpredictable.
That said, we try to do our best to inform you of some of these unexpected developments before they appear around the corner. For example, we told you last week that Jets rookie tight end Kenyon Sadiq was ready for exceptional performance and set about finding the end zone, which he did with an incredible diving catch.
Naturally, given the unpredictability of the league, we won’t knock a thousand here – like predicting a stink for the Steelers offense only for them to post 30 points in Week 3. That said, we’ll try to present to you some of the potential storylines/performances bubbling just beneath the league’s surface that could arise in Week 4.
Kyle Pitts appears on “Monday Night Football”
I feel like I have to disclose this like I’m some sort of stockbroker: this is NOT fantasy football advice. I wouldn’t let Pitts sniff a starting spot in lineups if you can help it, because he continues to disappoint managers.
That said, I think he will appear (by his standards) Monday night as the Falcons visit the New Orleans Saints. Pitts has been poor this season, catching just two of his six targets for 20 yards in three games played. Yuck.
If Pitts wanted to show signs of life for the Falcons offense, it would have to be in this matchup. So far this season, the Saints have allowed the second-most receptions (25) and third-most receiving yards (250) to tight ends. While most of that damage was done by Brock Bowers last week when he caught 10 balls for 116 receiving yards and a touchdown, Sam LaPorta (five catches for 48 yards) and Mark Andrews (six catches for 49 yards) also had respectable performances.
Given how low expectations are for Pitts, if he manages 50 receiving yards, it would seem like a more improbable feat than Neil Armstrong setting foot on the moon. That said, Pitts recorded six catches (on nine targets) for 58 yards the last time he faced New Orleans in Week 18 of last season.
While Atlanta’s offense gets a shot in the arm with the return of Michael Penix Jr., Pitts could see a bit of a bounce back at the Superdome.
Playing angle to note: Kyle Pitts’ total receiving yards over/under for Week 4 is 28.5 (-111 over). He is +175 to reach 40 receiving yards and +306 to reach 50 receiving yards (via DraftKings Sportsbook).
Jahmyr Gibbs runs over 150 meters
The Detroit Lions running back has been sensational through the first three weeks of the season and already has a 156-yard rushing performance under his belt against New Orleans in the season opener. Gibbs has the most touches (83) by any player through the first three games since Derrick Henry in 2021, so to say he is the centerpiece of Detroit’s offense would be an understatement. This week, he’ll have a tasty matchup against the Carolina Panthers on “Sunday Night Football,” where he could put on a monster show, including to the tune of 150 rushing yards or more.
Gibbs already has three games where he has surpassed 150 rushing yards, including this game against the Saints earlier this year. Not only that, but he has also rushed for over 200 yards once in his career, having done so in Week 12 last season against the Giants (219 rushing yards). On Sunday, he’ll face a Carolina run defense that’s arguably the worst in the entire NFL. Not only are they giving up the most rushing yards in the league (580) through three weeks, but they’re allowing runners to snatch a league-high 5.7 yards per carry.
With the Lions having one of the worst defenses in the NFL, that could allow Carolina to stay in this game, which in turn would keep Gibbs on the field throughout the contest and see him rack up some eye-popping yardage.
Playing angle to note: Jahmyr Gibbs’ total rushing yards over/under is set at 97.5 (-110 over). He’s +509 to run for at least 150 yards, +710 to hit 160 yards rushing, and, if you want to go crazy, +2400 to run for at least 200 yards in Week 4 (DraftKings Sportsbook).
Josh Allen continues his historic TD streak
Even in a game where he turned the ball over three times, Josh Allen continued to be a one-man wrecking crew and bulldozed Buffalo to victory. Specifically, Allen has a cheat code with his legs and is tied for the league lead with six rushing touchdowns. Allen rushed for two touchdowns in each of his first three games of the season. He is the first quarterback in NFL history to rush for multiple touchdowns in three consecutive games, and only the fourth player to do so in the first three games of the season (joining Jim Brown in 1958, Stephen Davis in 1999 and Priest Holmes in 2003).
There’s no sign of Allen slowing down either, especially with the Bills set to host the New England Patriots in a key AFC East matchup. New England struggled from the start, and while Drake Maye rightfully received the bulk of the criticism, the whole operation didn’t hold much promise for Mike Vrabel’s team.
This includes a defense that has had a lot of trouble tackling. This was on display during a designed run for Trevor Lawrence last week when he broke through a pile of Patriots and I would have scored a touchdown if he hadn’t gone down on his knees on the 1-yard line to try to kill the clock. If Lawrence can break through this New England defense, Allen will be like a hot knife sliding through butter.
If Allen rushes for multiple touchdowns for a fourth straight game, he would become the first player to do so since LaDainian Tomlinson during his record-setting MVP campaign in 2006.
Playing angle to note: Josh Allen is -115 to score a touchdown in Week 4 against the Patriots and +600 to score two touchdowns (via DraftKings Sportsbook).
Titans bench Cam Ward against Ravens
We are at the breaking point when it comes to Cam Ward. The Titans quarterback is swimming dangerously close to being definitively labeled a bust, especially after a tough, game-losing interception last week against the Giants. With the ball at the New York 7-yard line, Ward took a first down with about 24 seconds left in regulation, rolled out to his left and threw an off-balance pass intended for Eric Ayomanor. Instead, the ball was well short and collected by Jevon Holland.
Look at how frustrated offensive coordinator Brian Daboll was after the play.
These are the types of mistakes that put you on the bench, and Ward hasn’t shown enough flashes at this point in the year to fend off that possibility as early as Week 4.
Of the 26 quarterbacks who have thrown at least 75 passes so far this season, Ward is 21st in EPA per dropback, 18th in completion percentage, 20th in passer rating, 19th in off-target rate and 25th in yards per attempt.
It’s hard to imagine those numbers improving down the road when they go to Baltimore. Even though the Ravens defense hasn’t looked great so far this season, first-year head coach Jesse Minter has a solid history against Ward. When he faced the former No. 1 pick last season as the Chargers’ defensive coordinator, he held him to 12-of-21 passing for 145 yards, with no touchdowns or interceptions. They sacked him four times and the offense only managed six points.
If Ward continues to make bad mistakes with the football and this game gets out of hand in a usually hostile environment at M&T Bank Stadium, it wouldn’t surprise me if we see Mitch Trubisky in this game with Robert Saleh sending his young quarterback to the bench.
Vikings shut out Dolphins
The Dolphins are without a doubt the worst team in the NFL right now. They’re 0-3 on the year and really don’t show any signs of getting into the win column anytime soon. They are averaging 12 points per game, which is tied for the lowest in the league, and are the only team in the NFL that has yet to hold a lead at any point this season. Now, they will be without star leading man De’Von Achane for the remainder of the season due to a torn ACL, further worsening an already lackluster offense.
This raises the question of whether they will be on the scoreboard in Week 4 when they hit the road to take on the Minnesota Vikings. I think Brian Flores might make it his personal mission to deliver a goose egg to his former team on Sunday. Remember, Flores was unceremoniously fired by the Dolphins in 2021, so there must be some bad blood.
Since leaving Miami, Flores has re-established himself as one of the best defensive minds in the NFL and is arguably the best coordinator on that side of the ball currently. The Vikings are one of the most aggressive defenses in the NFL, boasting a league-high 71% blitz rate. This helped them rank second in scoring, allowing just 13.7 points per game.
Malik Willis has the highest off-target rate (20.9) by quarterback this season, and with the added pressure the Vikings are set to inflict on Sunday, the Dolphins signal-caller could continue to struggle with his accuracy. If that happens, it’s hard to imagine Miami’s offense spending much, if any, time near the end zone or even field goal range.
Playing angle to note: Miami’s team total for Week 4 is 13.5 (-120 under). Minnesota is +1300 to win by shutout (via DraftKings Sportsbook).
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