“We are choosing between war and peace,” Bulgarian Prime Minister Rumen Radev told voters ahead of Sunday’s runoff presidential election between outgoing President Iliana Yotova, who opposes military aid to Ukraine and favors dialogue with Russia, and former interim Prime Minister Andrei Gyurov, seen as staunchly pro-European and pro-Ukrainian.
With these words, it was clear that Sunday’s runoff had turned into a kind of referendum on the country’s foreign policy and its position on the war in Ukraine.
Now that the official results are in and it is clear that Iliana Yotova won the election decisively by 57.6% to Gyurov’s 39.5%, Radev says Bulgarians have chosen peace.
But is it really that simple?
First round surprise
When the campaign for the presidential election began in Bulgaria on September 25, there seemed to be no doubt about the outcome: Iliana Yotova was well ahead in the polls with 44.5%. Gyurov, his main rival, is far behind with 26.1%.
Yotova was supported by both the prime minister and her ruling party, Progressive Bulgaria, which won an absolute majority in the April 19 parliamentary elections.
But the first round turned out to be much closer than expected.
While Yotova received 34.8% of the vote in the first round, Gyurov was close behind with 31.95%, meaning a runoff between the two was necessary.
Decisive victory, clear division
Even though Yotova won the runoff convincingly, the campaign and results showed that the Bulgarian electorate is divided.
This division is both generational and geographical, explains Dimitar Ganev, sociologist and political scientist at the market and electoral research agency Trend.
“Younger voters, aged 18 to 40, are in favor of Gyurov. Those over 40 prefer Yotova,” Ganev told DW. “It also seems that Gyurov dominates in the capital Sofia. In smaller regional towns, other towns and villages, Yotova decisively dominates,” he said.
“President of Peace”
This division was also evident during the campaign.
While Andrei Gyurov mainly relied on social media for his campaign, Yotova chose to primarily address supporters of progressive Bulgaria in closed venues.
During such events, the war in Ukraine was always high on the agenda.
“As long as I am president, and if you trust me, not a single Bulgarian soldier will go to Ukraine,” Yotova said at a campaign rally on October 6 – even though, according to the Bulgarian Constitution, only Parliament (and not the president) has the power to send troops abroad or declare war.
Throughout the campaign, she called her opponents “warmongers” and described herself as the “president of peace.”
“We won because we talked to people about income and peace,” Yotova said after the election.
The Russian war in Ukraine, a major issue in the campaign
In this, she resembles Prime Minister Rumen Radev.
When it comes to Ukraine, Radev regularly talks about the need for peace and avoids calling Russia an “aggressor.” Radev and Yotova oppose military aid to Ukraine and criticize European leaders for not making enough effort to engage with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Gyurov, on the other hand, sharply criticized Russian aggression in Ukraine.
Appointed interim prime minister by Yotova in February, Gyurov signed a security cooperation agreement with Ukraine in March, drawing disapproval from both Yotova and Radev.
The impact of drone attacks in the Black Sea
In the weeks leading up to the elections, several ships sailing in the Black Sea were hit by drones off the Bulgarian coast.
The European Council criticized Russia for the escalation, and the European Parliament called on the EU and its member states “to consider deploying an EU naval operation” there.
Prime Minister Radev, however, was not so equivocal, simply summoning the Russian ambassador and declaring that “logic suggests that the outcome” of the Black Sea attacks “is to the advantage of the Russian Federation.”
Just days before the runoff, he noted that “two ships were struck and sunk in Romanian territorial waters” after Romania held Russia responsible for attacks in the Black Sea.
“Many people think that once the attacker is identified, the attacks will stop,” he said, downplaying the Kremlin’s responsibility. His remarks drew criticism from Romanian politicians and media.
Yotova also did not single out Russia as the perpetrator, but said during her campaign that she did not want to see “foreign flags in Bulgaria” – a clear reference to the Ukrainian flag, which was flown in front of several institutions in Bulgaria as a sign of solidarity with the war-torn country.
How other voters voted
Most opposition parties, including the right-wing conservative GERB party led by former longtime Prime Minister Boyko Borissov, have refused to field a presidential candidate, which partly explains why turnout on Sunday was below 30%.
In the first round, pro-Russian candidate Kostadin Kostadinov of the nationalist Vazrazhdane (Renaissance) party came third with 12.5% of the vote. According to Dimitar Ganev, around 70% of Vazrazhdane voters supported Yotova in the second round.
To gain their support, Yotova targeted pro-Russian voters.
“Russia is in no way an enemy of Bulgaria,” she said in a podcast interview just two days before the runoff, adding that “Russia is part of our history and I sincerely hope that it will be a key factor in the future security architecture in Europe, including for us.”
In the days leading up to the vote, some of his supporters began claiming the opposition was preparing a “Maidan,” a reference to Ukraine’s 2014 revolution that culminated with the ouster of President Viktor Yanukovych, who had close ties to Moscow.
“All of Gyurov’s lackeys are talking openly about the inevitable protests. They are taking advantage of prime time to stir up the Maidan. Every one of them,” Sonya Momchilova, appointed to the post of media regulator by Radev, wrote on Facebook on Sunday.
Similar statements were made by former Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and former Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic ahead of this year’s elections in their countries.
Bulgaria in the EU and NATO
“This claim that Ms. Yotova will be a president of peace is directly linked to inciting fear of war,” said former Defense Minister Todor Tagarev, who was part of the committee that nominated Andrey Gyurov for president. “Under his leadership, Bulgaria will be in a much worse situation within Europe and NATO,” he said in a television interview.
Dimitar Ganev, for his part, sees no threat to Bulgaria’s engagement with the EU and NATO. “More than two thirds of Bulgarians do not question the country’s geopolitical orientation and around two thirds have a positive attitude towards the EU,” he told DW.
But Radev and Yotova’s positions, which many view as ambivalent, have mobilized both the pro-European camp and Eurosceptic voters, who Ganev says make up about a third of the country’s population.
According to Prime Minister Rumen Radev and President Iliana Yotova, the Bulgarian people chose peace in the presidential election. Nevertheless, the war continues.
Edited by: Aingeal Flanagan
Gn world
