The US Capitol goes up on September 23 in Washington, DC
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President Trump was elected in 2024, largely, with a mandate to lower prices. But that didn’t happen. Instead, Trump is facing record approval ratings and voters are blaming him for costs that have continued to rise since he took office for the second time.
As a result, Republicans are likely to pay the price in next month’s elections. With a month to go until Election Day, the electoral landscape has shifted even further in favor of Democrats.
They are favored to win the House, although with a fairly narrow majority. The Cook Political Report projects a net gain of five to 15 seats for Democrats at this point. This would give them between 220 and 230 seats in January. (218 are needed for a majority.)
The Senate has changed more dramatically in recent months. Six seats have moved more in the Democratic direction since June when comparing Cook’s ratings from then to now. At the start of the cycle, the Senate represented a significant obstacle for Democrats. Now it’s within reach.
And a lot of that is due to the national mood, which is usually the case during midterms. Trump has just a 37% approval rating, according to an average of polls. That’s tied for the lowest level of midterm approval in the last half-century.
The only other president to fall this low in this era was George W. Bush in 2006. At the time, Iraq was descending into civil war and Republicans were losing the House and Senate.
Trump also faces historic intensity of opposition; 53% in the latest NPR/PBS News/Marist poll said they strongly disapprove of the president’s work, the highest ever recorded in the survey. This is not a good sign for Republicans, as Trump insists that the midterm elections will be all about him.
As things stand, history is not kind to the president’s party in the midterm elections. They typically lose about two dozen seats in the House and four in the Senate. It’s even worse for the ruling party when the president’s approval rating is below 50%, as is currently the case for Trump.
There are multiple reasons Democratic gains could be limited, including mid-decade redistricting helping to isolate Republicans, fewer competitive to potentially competitive House seats, most in districts won by Trump in 2024, Republican campaign spending advantage, and the unpopularity of the Democratic Party.
That said, the headwinds facing the Republican Party are very real.
Republicans have lost their advantage on the economy
Economic issues remain the main problem and the most important problem facing the country.
Most presidents get more blame and credit than they deserve for the economy, but the war with Iran and Trump’s tariffs are choices that have directly led to rising costs of many goods and energy.
The economy is increasingly divided: the rich are doing well and ordinary people are struggling. Wealthy Americans are seeing their wealth and stock portfolios grow, dominated by AI companies.
It’s a different story for many others. Inflation outpaces wages, which means people’s wages don’t carry them as far. There isn’t a lot of turnover in the job market, so if someone doesn’t have a job or is looking to change, it’s not an easy thing to do.
Additionally, many are turning against AI. In many places, this drives up utility costs and, along with rising national debt, makes borrowing more difficult.
All this comes at a time when gas prices have skyrocketed due to the war in Iran and interest rates are gradually increasing. In an attempt to control inflation, the Federal Reserve raised rates this fall. This makes it more expensive to borrow money and harder to pay for things like houses and cars.
The blame for this sort of thing is often placed squarely on the White House and the ruling party, and right now it’s on Trump and the Republicans.
An AP/NORC poll released last week, for example, found that 65% of respondents said higher-than-usual prices were more due to Trump’s policies than factors beyond his control.
Only 26% said they approved of the work he is doing on the economy.
A September NBC News poll found that for only the second time in the Trump era, respondents said they trusted Democrats more than Republicans on the economy. (Although this is within the margin of error, the movement in the survey was clear.)
The only other time Democrats led on this issue was in 2018 — the last midterm year when Trump was president. The Democrats then won 42 seats and control of the House.
Add the largely negative views on the economy to the administration’s immigration control tactics, discretionary budget cuts, reductions in government regulations and staffing, and it all inflames Democrats.
An opposition party enthusiastic about voting is a major warning sign for the president’s party, especially in the midterms.
History is not on the side of the president’s party in the midterm elections
In 18 of the 20 midterm elections since World War II, the president’s party has lost seats in the House. On average, that’s 26 seats, and nine more when a president’s approval rating is below 50 percent.
The last three midterm elections have seen fewer House seats lost, despite unpopular presidents, largely because the universe of competitive districts is smaller.
The president himself, however, has repeatedly acknowledged the political difficulties facing his party in the midterms.
“Whether or not you have a great president, Republican or Democrat, they don’t do well in the midterms,” Trump said Friday at a campaign rally in Alabama. “I don’t know why. Nobody explained it.”
There are reasons, however.
First, turnout in midterm elections is historically about 30 percent lower than in presidential years. Thus, the voters most motivated to vote show up in disproportionate numbers.
Anger is a big motivator, and often voters closest to the opposition party want to express their frustration. And, as previously noted, the intensity of opposition to Trump is reaching historic levels.
A CBS poll released Sunday found Democrats were more enthusiastic: 84 percent of Democrats and 82 percent of independents surveyed said they would “definitely” vote, compared with 77 percent of Republicans.
Additionally, a key indicator of which party is performing well in the midterms is the Democrats. Surveys, including the NPR/PBS News/Marist poll, ask some version of: “If the November congressional elections were held today, which party candidate are you most likely to vote for in your district?”
In an average of 2026 polls, Democrats have a nine-point advantage on this question, known as the congressional voting test. Historically, Democrats tend to need a bigger lead on the issue than Republicans, given the way districts have been drawn. But +9 is what Democrats need.
To be more specific: In each of the last seven midterm elections, the party with the advantage in the congressional ballot has made gains.
With independents and Latinos, two swing groups, lashing out against Trump in this second term, this poses an additional problem for Republicans in competitive districts.
Their job is made even more difficult when Trump says things like “pretend” he’s on the ballot and makes the election a “referendum” on him.
The White House’s theory on the matter is that Trump has successfully driven conservatives away while he’s on the ballot, and that Republican candidates need them to turn out in large numbers.
But it will be necessary to test whether this is sufficient. In swing districts and some key Senate elections, candidates typically need voters in the middle to win.
Ultimately, with less than a month until voting ends, the political compass is tilted toward the Democrats. For multiple reasons, Democrats’ gains may not be as large as similar numbers might indicate in previous elections, but there is no doubt that right now they have the wind at their backs.
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