Democrats consider ambitious Senate map, once unthinkable, as anti-Trump backlash deepens

For weeks, top Democrats in Washington have watched with cautious restraint as Republicans poured millions of dollars into red states like Kansas and South Carolina to defend an increasingly fragile Senate map.

But Democrats increasingly believe they have a real chance of winning seats in Trump territory, as Republicans face their worst midterm environment in decades and the Senate map sharply expands.

Democrats are now adding Kansas to a growing list of unlikely targets, while also trying to flip Texas, Alaska and Iowa — the four states Trump won by double digits in 2024. With just 22 days left, the Democratic Senate super PAC surprised some in its own party by investing $5 million in Kansas — a state that hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate in nearly a century.

“The gap is narrowing in Kansas,” Senate Majority PAC spokeswoman Lauren French said in a statement.

The investment marks a sea change for Democratic campaign officials in Washington, who — until now — have insisted they are clear-eyed about their own realities in these midterm elections. With Democrats largely outpaced by the Republican Party, Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and his campaign team have been careful to focus strictly on key battleground seats that are most likely to flip the Senate, according to nearly a dozen people familiar with internal discussions.

But within the party, there is fierce debate over how far to expand the map when Democrats are already fighting so many expensive races and worry about how far to spread their limited money without costing winnable seats.

Privately, Senate Democrats had planned to conserve their limited supply of money in what they view as must-win races in North Carolina and Georgia — even though the Republican Party has sharply cut spending in both states — as well as hold Michigan and flip seats in Maine, Ohio, Iowa, Alaska and Texas.

But now, voter backlash against Trump has Democrats betting on even redder seats. In recent days, there is a growing sense that their party has a real chance in Kansas, in particular, where Republicans are spending nearly $10 million on the airwaves to defend incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall.

It’s a strategy that would have once been unthinkable for Democrats, who just weeks ago rejected the idea of ​​serious spending in Texas — let alone Kansas.

A recent public poll showed a tie between Marshall and Democrat Adam Hamilton in a state that Trump won by 16 points two years ago. The Democrats’ own internal polls in Kansas also showed that Hamilton was actually in a position to compete.

“Democrats have expanded the map deep into GOP territory and created new opportunities to flip seats – putting us in the strongest position yet to win a majority in the Senate,” said Schumer’s campaign arm, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, spokeswoman Maeve Coyle. “From now until Election Day, we will keep all options on the table and pursue all strategic paths to victory as resources allow. »

In Kansas, the Methodist pastor of the Hamilton megachurch was careful to distance himself from Washington Democrats. Describing himself as an “independent-minded Democrat,” Hamilton previously told CNN he would not support Schumer for party leader. And recently, when a sitting Democratic senator offered to campaign for Hamilton, the candidate’s team declined, according to a person familiar with the discussions.

Within the cash-strapped Democratic Party, there is an increasingly fierce debate over how far to expand the Senate map — and how far to push into Trump country as the environment deteriorates for Republicans. With Kansas now on the map and optimism rife, Democrats are talking seriously in private about their real chance of defeating Republicans in states like South Carolina, Mississippi and Nebraska. Sen. Bernie Sanders is spending some of his own money in Florida.

But there are also concerns that Democrats’ decision to invest money in a red state like Kansas could divert resources from a crucial state like Michigan or Ohio. And among the most anxious Democrats, some continue privately to pressure the party to invest more in New Hampshire or even Minnesota, two traditionally blue seats with well-known Republican candidates backed by heavy Republican spending. North Carolina Democrat Roy Cooper has made clear that the national party cannot ignore his race either.

“People are really excited about these swing states. We haven’t won Iowa, Ohio, Texas or Alaska yet,” a Democratic operative who works on Senate races said in recent days.

Some party members, for example, are privately sounding the alarm about Minnesota, where progressives like Sanders are trying to pour resources there in recent days.

“I’m concerned that there aren’t enough resources invested in Minnesota… People take it as a blue state for granted,” said a Democratic operative who is closely following the Senate race there. “You’re trying to put Maine and Texas on the map, but you also have to play defense.”

Republicans, too, sense opportunity in the state. They feel good about Republican Michele Tafoya, a well-known former NFL reporter, taking on Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan. Top Senate Republicans told donors that last-minute contributions could go far in Minnesota, according to two people familiar with the matter — and that they believed the race could be won with more money.

While Minnesota Democratic officials aren’t publicly sounding the alarm about keeping their Senate seats, party leaders believe they have a kind of built-in insurance policy: Sen. Amy Klobuchar is running for governor and will be at the top of the ticket and could help other Democrats cross the finish line. Still, some in the party point out that Kamala Harris only won the state by 4 points two years ago and should not be ignored this fall.

The complicating factor for Democrats is money. While Democratic candidates and groups raised record amounts, Senate Republicans benefited from even more massive spending from GOP super PACs aligned with President Donald Trump and Elon Musk. Top Democrats have made it clear that they simply don’t have enough money to run for every potentially competitive seat.

In recent weeks, the mindset among top Senate Democrats has been to “stay the course” on their current battleground rather than expand it at the last minute to places like South Carolina, according to a person granted anonymity to discuss internal conversations.

“This is not the time where we need to do things differently,” this person said, noting that top Democrats have emphasized caution in recent weeks: “There’s going to be some turbulence between now and Election Day.”

However, Senate Democrats do not immediately rule out the chances of an upheaval in these states. Schumer’s campaign arm encouraged senators to play the expanding map, including tightening races like in Mississippi or South Carolina, and told senators directly, “We’re not taking options off the table,” according to a person familiar with the discussions. And Schumer personally told donors that the Mississippi Senate race deserves attention, another person familiar with the discussions told CNN.

But campaign officials have also made clear that they cannot divert their attention from the other races they need to flip control of the Senate, or even from traditionally blue seats that have yielded unusual spending.

“Everything feels really good right now. The question is, can it hold up?” said another Democratic operative working on congressional elections.