There were rumors of retirement Sonny Gray this year but he will be back, according to Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. “My family and I have talked about it and it’s an easy decision,” Gray said in a text message to the Globe. “I always want to win a World Series, whether it’s (with) Boston or whoever wants me.”
Gray will soon be 37 but he remains a very effective pitcher. He just gave the Red Sox 169 innings in 29 starts, allowing 2.72 earned runs per nine innings. His 21.8% strikeout rate was essentially league average for a starter this year, while his 6.7% walk rate and 46% ground ball rate were both better than normal. He received some help with a .283 batting average on balls in play and an 83.2% strand rate. His ERA may be a bit misleading, but his 3.47 FIP and 3.92 SIERA suggest he still would have been effective given more neutral luck.
The only reason his status was somewhat questionable was his personal life. Gray mentioned in September that he would “be done in a heartbeat” if his family wanted him to give up the sport and become a full-time dad. It seems that the family discussion did not last too long. The Red Sox were eliminated less than two weeks ago, but the Gray family has already made a decision for next year.
Gray will head to free agency in a few weeks. His contract with the Cardinals originally included a club option for 2027, but that was converted to a mutual option on the condition that he waive his no-trade clause to be negotiated with Boston. It’s been over a decade since a mutual option was triggered by both sides, so it’s fair to assume a player will become a free agent in such situations.
He should be in high demand, as effective starting pitchers always are. His market will be interesting to watch because of his personal preferences. As mentioned, he flirted with retirement. He also seems to have a preference for East Coast clubs so he can be close to his home in Nashville. The last time he was on the open market, he signed with St. Louis, one of the closest MLB cities to home. He approved a trade to move away, so it’s not like he’s set hard limits, but it’s hard to say how willing he is to go to the West Coast.
Based on his performance, Gray is arguing for a two-year contract with a high salary. Even in their late 30s, pitchers can be paid well if they continue to put up numbers. Max Scherzer got a three-year, $130 million contract from the Mets for his age 37-39 seasons, although he just posted a 2.46 ERA with a 34.1% strikeout rate and a 5.2% walk rate. Justin Verlander got two years and $86.67 million for those age 40 and 41 seasons, although he was coming off a 1.75 ERA season with a 27.8% strikeout rate and 4.4% walk rate. Gray isn’t quite in that league.
Merrill Kelly just got two years and $40 million last winter for a deal starting with his age-37 campaign. Gray has good reason to beat this. Kelly’s numbers in 2025 were somewhat comparable to Gray’s in 2026, but Kelly’s ERA of 3.52 was higher and his track record was more of a solid mid-rotation guy, whereas Gray has long had front-end upside. Gray could possibly seek a two-year contract worth a total of $50-60 million.
That’s if he’s looking to maximize. Perhaps he would prefer to limit himself to a one-year contract so that he can reconsider retirement in a year. Its geographic preferences could also limit the field. If he does indeed prefer East Coast teams, that removes a few clubs from the board. Some East Coast teams are also potentially off his list. He famously disliked spending time pitching for the Yankees in New York, for example.
He didn’t leave Boston on a good note this year either. He was removed from his start in the Wild Card round after throwing 70 pitches in 4 2/3 innings. Afterwards, according to Tim Healey of the Boston Globe, he expressed his displeasure at not having more confidence. When asked if he would be willing to return to Boston in 2027, he simply replied, “I don’t know.”
His message to Speier today was more open, but it’s hard to say whether it’s genuine. As a free agent, it would be in his financial best interest to express as much openness as possible. More viable landing spots would raise the stakes. If he said he wasn’t willing to play in Boston, it would only hurt his earning power.
The Sox could definitely use him. They have three rotation places represented by Garrett Hook, Payton Tolle And Ranger Suarezalthough Hook isn’t exactly a safe bet after injuries wiped out most of his 2026. Beyond those three, the Sox have guys like Jake Bennett, Brayan Bello, Johan Oviedo and others in the mix, but Gray would definitely be an improvement over this crew.
There are plenty of other options, as very few clubs couldn’t use more starting pitchers. There has been a lot of speculation over the years that Gray would end up in Atlanta due to that city’s proximity to Nashville, but he hasn’t gotten there yet and there are other clubs with somewhat similar proximities. It’s also possible that he’s prioritizing winning over geography this time, since his post today listed the World Series as his primary focus.
Photo courtesy of Paul Rutherford, Imagn Images
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